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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Loving all the Outlooks just issued from everybody from Dan to Nick F to Paul Blight on Ukww.

    The Cone of Silence (Extreme SE Essex) Lives on and manages to miss absolutely everything 

    Now there is an outside chance at some Overnight Imports tomorrow night as well not being picked up by too many models atm and that is on a collision course for the areas not included in Todays, Tonights and tomorrow daytimes risk. I would expect this to also swerve away to the west as well as we get closer.

    Good luck to all away from SE Essex as there are plenty of chances over the next 48 hours for someone to get something severe

    • Like 6

    Noctilucent Clouds Season 2020

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    So the way I work these and I know people say you cant but here goes

    Night/Morning of 8th/9th is at the 6pm Position

    9th / 10th would be the 5pm position

    10th/11th would be the 4pm position

    11th/12th would be the 3pm Position (Tonight) and its why Scotland is doing so well with that chunk hanging just above 60 degrees North

    So tomorrow if clear should also bear Fruit in the 2pm position

     

    This theory has worked well since May 25th

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    I think there may be some confusion here - the cell in question I presume is this one that moved westwards to the south of Ringwood between 16:10-16:25?

    2018831764_ScreenShot2020-06-11at16_57_42.thumb.png.85426fa9d32ec535b5eafac5cea0beac.png

    Not entirely sure where this visible mesocyclone is over SW England right now though...

    Yep Dan

    Think there were wires crossed and wrong picture of a cell further west into Devon.

    The Weak Supercell was south of Ringwood around 1615

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    What is showing though on most of the global models is an interesting scenario from 23z tomorrow evening into Sat morning early hour moving into East Anglia from the low countries (Obvs Missing the Cone of Silence to my north) with a quite strong signal for an MCS to move WNW across into the Midlands.

    One to watch for you guys further north and north west of the SE Corner.

    Also a decent signal for another chance of storms tomorrow around lunchtime for South Coast arcing over towards Central Southern England the SW and South Wales again missing the cone of silence.

    Some people are going to do quite well and see some storms clearly

    • Like 6

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    What’s the likelihood of Belgium breeding storms that migrate across the channel into Kent this afternoon?

    Very small likelyhood as storms over there will be surface based and once they get into that cess pit of water will rapidly die. Might get to see some lightning 25 miles away and hear some booms if you go down to Lydd or Dungeness but most will drift into the Channel and die on their a rses

    Tornado threat 18th March onward

    in Storm Chase USA

    Posted

    My absolute favourite type of set-up over in the USA today and the perfect place for it as well. Ironically this looks like the most solid set-up for tornadoes since late April in South Central Oklahoma. Everything is in place including shear, instability lift and moisture (SLIM) the 4 ingredients needed for Tornadoes.

    The Set-Up

    An advancing Surface Low moving across the top of Kansas today will pull in low 70's dewpoints and wrap it into the low pressure centre, the trick today is to keep an eye on surface obs throughout the day making sure you stick to the east or north east of the surface low. Storms will be quite low topped at 25,000 to 35,000 feet. This Set up is also known as a Cold Core Set Up. The SRH injected into the low will be perfect for tornado producing Supercells and add into it the topography of the area near the Flint Hills and added Vorticity gets added into the mix. I can certainly see a Cyclic Tornado producing storm today. D/DP Spreads are perfect with the magical 10 spread of 80/70 with LCL's very low around 250 metres meaning low bases. HRRR has been showing initiation around 19-20z today with peak maturity around 21-01z. These kind of storms tend to be very pretty with little to no anvils and crisp cauliflower tops with weak Tornadoes under dark bases, occasionally you do get quite strong EF2 to borderline EF3 Tornadoes with these kind of storms as well though if something becomes Cyclic and uses all the SRH.

    Ironically this would have been the changeover day in Denver between Tours 3 and 4 and I would have been absolutely screaming profanities knowing this is falling on a day which I believe could be a season saver for 99% of the chase community.

    Streams should be really good tonight for this event

    My Target area is posted below in the red box

     

     

    HRRRCGP_sfc_temp_015.png

    • Like 5
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