[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Am not getting the Conveyor coming out of the Calais area towards Kent pushing West North Westwards through Kent, Surrey, London etc

Where are the BBC getting that from, it looks like the Precip approaches from the SW heads NE, Pivots and Peters out ?

Anyone know from the above graphics what models are showing that ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

And, for both Suffolk & Norfolk...'k all!

Nil Punts 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, snowray said:

Here are my thoughts for what its worth...Ties is with PPN totals on Euro4, but I think everything will be slightly further north of the Thames estuary. 

If Euro4 is close to the mark, thats about 20cm of snow around the north downs just south of London by Friday lunchtime.

Defo a drive upto Biggin Hill Then 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Shoreham Airport is mighty Impressive for 20z

-3c Temp

-5c Dewpoint

Wonder how low Benson will go tonight if it keeps clear skies

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

21 minutes ago, jtay said:

Hello Paul. Cheers for popping in.... No fear of that, you know I can't stand computers.

Best of luck out there this year. 

 

Lightning Rod.

 

Cheers Jon

And yep I know you will out down some country lane walking to the Local pub with your book ready to read in front of a roaring fire

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah Paul that looks about right to me for places north of the Thames, looks like the main action is decent south of that region, and even that area looks slightly iffy if some of the 12z suite were correct.

Just got to hope that some of the more aggressive models are correct...quite honestly anything could happen with it.

Yh sorry Darren that's only for East Anglia would be good to see a Map for areas South and West of the Thames agree

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Latest from Dan - And bear in mind he is getting far more info than what we see and it is fresh off the bat not like the recorded Met and BBC efforts from hours ago

This Map looks on the money to me

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Don't be rude.

Rude  Oh believe me that wasnt rude that was polite.

Move on look at some charts and have a go at a forecast yourself

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

That's fine. Don't answer the question.

No Probs - Ask some of the others

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Will this affect Essex or the whole of East Anglia.

Am sure you know the answer to that being a Met Student, Its not hard to work out, Or do you mean the Saturday Risk

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Loving the rain band right over me and @Paul Sherman house.

 Thats just Guy Fawkes's way of getting some Rain and Mild on a map, it must be killing him to talk of snow through gritted teeth poor lad

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Not expecting much in SE Essex just a dusting but go about 45 miles (As the Crow Flies) South and West to say Junction 6 of the M25 and it should be a whole lot better. One of those fronts that edges North and East from the SW and loses intensity the further North and East it goes, seen these set ups countless times and never ever have we done well from it in Essex.

Saturday might be our saving grace with the NW Moving Precip from La Frrance

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Looks great for you guys down in the South West - Good luck and for gods sake dont sit at a computer get out and enjoy it!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

41 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

That doesn’t happen often. It is a slush fest most winters.

 

When Mother Nature picks on me whilst chasing Tornadoes in the Spring I go outside cry a bit throw a tantrum esp when the Tornado happens on a storm 50 miles South of me 

What I am getting at is with Ma Nature it's not personal every event is different and it's pot luck where the Lps go and where the Precip falls 

You are sounding hard done by and you really are not as Dan says parts of Norfolk had just under a foot from an Easterly 11 months ago 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

But the uppers are about the same as Tuesday evenings at around -6, maybe the easterly flow might make it more conducive to snow than the SE’ we saw yesterday.

Dewpoints will save most of us  Ranging from -2c to -4c throughout, -6 Uppers will get it done 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The point is - We can only go based on what the models are showing us. It looked likely that many areas of this region would see a fairly prolonged period of snowfall after a short period of rain. Unfortunately as Paul explained some areas were under a slither of above freezing dew points thanks to a South-Easterly flow.  

Models do not always pick up tiny details like that, in the grand scheme of things they're not important but when it comes down to hyper local detail it can make a big difference, as tonight has shown. 

Rain/Sleet/Snow mix was always on the cards, some areas did well, some areas didn't do so well. I suspect the slowing of the frontal band helped areas further West to see snow because cold air was able to undercut a little earlier as a result.

Some areas have seen 2-3cm, some areas have seen a little more, some areas have seen very little or nothing, that's just how these things go.

You explained it better than me Dan - Thanks

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Wasnt meant to be patronising but if you are studying Meteorology am guessing at UEA then surely you could see the Low Pressure was losing intensity (Dan calls it Upper Forcing) then you could see that the Northern Extent of the Precip was struggling and with no heavy precip at 36f dewpoints it simply wasnt going to fall as snow, as the precip shield has waxed and waned away moving out towards the east when the favourable conditions (EG Dp's around freezing were there) the precip wasnt strong enough for the Norfolk area.

I always like to go through the event after it has happened to try and see why things happened and why things never happened and wrote a paper on the infamous 2009 Snow Event that many Met Students have asked to do studies on (That event was triggered by an Inversion around the Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex Coasts) that stopped the Snow from reaching the ground other than polystyrene balls with cloud tops at 37,000ft and Uppers of -14. The same Convective storms moved from the ENE to WSW and gave over a foot of snow to London.

Its all a learning process, was not meant to be patronising in any way

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East, but in the end the west got the snowfall. 

Erm

Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Nothing marginal about that Steve 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Sarah Anne said:

Sorry im ashford ... will update.

Its just ive been waiting but your post suggessted it was all gone everywhere . So was thinking i may as well switch radar off if youre saying that with your experience x

Thanks for putting in your location, just to confirm was not talking about the radar earlier sorry for the confusion Sarah. Crossed wires I think

Thursday looks a lot better for all the region as much less marginal unless you are within 5-10 miles of the Coast. And it should be more solidly 2-5cm across the board.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Sarah Anne said:

Over for all se or just for your neck of woods. 

Was just finding it interessting that when the Cold Undercut occured there was a narrow strip of Dewpoints that stayed around 1-2c from Mid Kent through SE Essex and up into Suffolk and Norfolk probably brought about by the SE Onshore flow which kept it as rain longer in those areas. The map that was shon earlier shoed it brilliantly - Dont know where your neck of the woods is as you dont have a location on your profile

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Actually scrap that all proper snow now, not heavy but looks nice in the Lamp Post across the street

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Yh not too bothered about tonight, most of it would have been gone by 10am anyways. 

Its still 80/20 in favour of rain here.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, StLuke said:

Pretty disappointing in Southend was looking promising 30mins ago when temp dropped suddenly but leveled of now at 2c, what's the latest in Leigh-on-Sea? 

Nope, Nada

Annnnnnd Onto Thursday

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Bit dubious of the 5cm here