Paul Sherman
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Posts posted by Paul Sherman
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Would imagine that Storm NW of Paris is an MCV and should note should impact parts of Kent, Essex and Suffolk that have missed out thus far this evening.
UKV had this modelled for around 8pm tonight heading NNW
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4 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:
That storm in northolk has defiantly anchored itself on the boundary layer it’s Hardily moveing Paul
Yep looks like a Sea Breeze Boundary with ENE Winds feeding into it.
Probably Supercellular, hopefully some people ping up some pictures of the Structure. Would imagine LCL's around 700-1000mtrs and solid base on it with strong Updraught!
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Incredibly it looks like SE Essex is going to dodge pretty much ALL the Precip - Amazing!
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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:
What about in East Sussex Paul
Yep looking ok - things destabilising to your south and east at present
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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Would you say those cells down South will affect Lincolnshire?
Yep cant see why not, as they move into a more favourable environment for Surface Based Storms then they should hold their course, it is not uncommon for Elevated Storms to become rooted into the Boundary layer and become surface based
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For those of us east of London and in Kent should be encouraged by recent developments SE Of Brighton which should congeal into an MCS this evening according to some HI Res Model Data I have seen which I cant share unfortunately
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Nope nothing of note happening here in SE Essex, had a build up of TCU Earlier but that seems to have been beaten down by the Cap here. Suppose could get a drifter up from La France later. Thetford to Hunstanton is the place to be today, 2000jkg of Cape and if anything can go surface based that would be my hunch although the majority of these are Elevated Hailers
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We are unfortunately placed for Surface based storms I agree, there simply is not the land track for Essex and Surrey in our locales. You have to get very lucky with a NE Moving storm to form for you just inland from the Hampshire Coast or for me north of Brighton. Otherwise its MU Cape Storms from France which deliver or get annoyed by Surface based Supercells raging in NW France that lose intensity as they encounter the English Channel.
I would take a punt on a possible MCS This evening for our area so all is not lost..................yet
Other than That East Cambs, Norfolk, Suffolk and Lincs looks primed if you can drive just a little bit north today.
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2 minutes ago, Crashlanding said:
WTF do you know about storms!?
Nowt
But I learned you should not chase a Warm Front over a LP and never Chase in North Dakota as long as you live.
Are you out today ? Might actually give this a crack up in Cambs/Lincs area today
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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I don’t understand these storms at all now.
Think I’ve lost the will to be a U.K. storm chaser any more.
If it can be this hot and humid and storms just refuse to happen over us then i’m at a complete loss understanding what conditions i’m supposed to be looking out for.
Not to sound condescending but I think you need to read up online or from a book about what causes thunderstorms in given areas, it is not down to the pretty colours you see on charts and you have to include a lot of factors when looking at where storms will be likely.
Texas and Oklahoma in the States have had Cape Value and Heat of over 100f most of the last 3 months but have had hardly any noteworthy storms, but places further north which are cooler (relatively) and are closer to Upper Forcing and surface features have been getting hammered with storms with lower Cape but higher Shear environments.
You really will find it beneficial to read up on these things and wont get so wound up - Just my twopenceworth
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16 minutes ago, cheese said:
It's definitely not their first ever - we've been under one of their HIGH warnings before. Came to nothing, mind you.
Definately IS their first ever High
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86/66 here in Leigh On Sea with not a cloud in the Sky.
Everything looks to be North and West of here for today and not really looking forward to frontal thundery rain on Friday if I am honest.
Good luck to the usual hotspots in these breakdown situations closer to the Trough.
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Melvyn
When you land can you do the Following
when you get to arrivals, head to West Terminal - Level 5
Passenger Pick Up Island 3
Days Inn bus runs regularly and is Free
Me and John will be waiting for you there
Not long now
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Hi Guys
Next week is looking VERY active. After all meeting on Saturday we will be making our way East towards Kansas for what looks like a May Type Tornado Set-Up. Monday also looks very active in N Central Kansas, not going any further with risks at this point but looking very good.
Regards
Paul
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Looking like a bonus chase day coming up on Tuesday in Colorado, Is everyone staying at the Days Inn on Monday night on Tower Road ? Have started a Tour 4 chat thread on Facebook
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Sitting in Grass Range Montana waiting for initiation.
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Chicken George is still alseep after falling foul of some dodgy eggs last night at the restaurant.
Today looks like some marginal Supercell Structures so will trek a bit further north from our overnight coup in Billings and hope for some nice storms later
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Martin
We are staying at the Best Western at Irving on the first night and have booked you a room in your name, when you land can you get to car rentals and get the shuttle bus (Free) to pick you up and get you to the Best Western.
There is a 5% Tornado Risk and the others can get a bonus chase in and get back to the Hotel tonight.
We will then make our way North for Fridays risk first thing on Thursday morning.
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Great day for Netweather, Neil and loads of other Brits
Colorado Magic always delivers
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Landspout Tornadofest in Colorado today.
Lost count pictures in the morning
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Thank you
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Martin, that is very late, any chance of changing your flight ?
And with the pattern looking active you might find it better to try and change
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Starting today in Ogallalla with a jaunt south towards Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado, hoping for some marginal Supercell structures before it all lines out into an MCS
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Starting today in Limon and will be targeting NE Colorado and Nebraska, hoping for some Supercells, Hail and wind the primary threats
Should have decent streaming today
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
2 Probable Supercells at the moment, the left mover over Skegness and the one to its south in the Wash.
Hoping some people can get some pics of these