[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Yh thats really developed on the back of that front Surrey. 

Heads up London area and South Essex could be in for some really heavy rain soon

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

They often Dont deliver in Essex 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Winter Hill said:

Hi Paul.

to be honest, I think all of the Models have seriously underperformed this winter. For me the UKMet Bowing down to the Icon when it said no to the Easterl was a kick in the proverbials 

Yep 100% agree with this statement as well.

Have been some serious mouths wide open moments with the models this winter, ICON did trump em all, and as you say they have all been pretty appalling

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Paul 

Can you post a link to the UKMO charts for me please. 

 

Cheers 

I know what the Stats show for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and ECM this ECM that, Yada Yada

But the handling of when the weather has started to get "Interesting" around our shores I feel has been handled better by UKMO, remember we would be recovering from a massive Deep Freeze Easterly if the ECM had its way a few weeks back, or been blown towards China if the GFS had that 927mb Low hit the Uk a few weeks back as well

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Is it just me who thinks the ECM has been garbage this winter so am wondering why so many people are hiding behind sofas ?

UKMO has led the way and is way out in front this winter, I am 100% happy with what it is showing

GFS - People know I hate this model with a passion but even that has been neck a neck with ECM this winter.

In my opinion if UKMO backs away tomorrow morning thats when we need to worry, NOT the ECM this evening

[Tour 2 2019]

Hi Dan the 26th will NOT be a chase day, thats the day we have to get rid of 2 of the cars back to car rentals and start our journey upto Denver for the start of Tour 3 which kicks off on the 28th May

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

So to explain how crazy marginal and difficult this set-up is, especially the further south you go here is an example.

Two of the ensemble members have what is basically the same set-up on Thursday morning. Both are around 960mbs, both center on W.Ireland and moving ESE. So without high resolution you could not tell the difference.

And yet one has 3-6 inches widely even in the south, and the other has 0 below B'ham. So why the difference?

The difference is BOTH have a wave feature on the front ahead of it turning the air southerly for the south. However the first one keeps it as an open wave meaning its not really drawing in any milder air from the south to any great degree...the 2nd just about forms a small tight closed low pressure/ This rotates around the parent low and drags up *slightly* milder air (maybe milder by 1-2c) BUT because it does that it makes the whole thing a rain event in the south, whilst the first solution gives a large amount of snow for all as it moves northwards.

At this time scale, its impossible to nail down such tiny features that could make the world of difference, and it really does make a world of difference on the ensembles!

It will definately be the 2nd one knowing our luck 

This set up and who is in what camp etc reminds me of a 8 runner Handicap Chase at Haydock

2 have fallen, 2 are pulled up and 4 are left with 3 Fences to go, the even money shot and the 2/1 and 5/2 are clear from the 4th horse who is 66/1

At the last the Fav falls brings down the other 2 and the 66/1 shot is the only finisher

Sounds like the winter to a tee - Haha

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Hope you get lucky (storm wise lol) It’s a good spot. I was in a tornado warning once driving north of Calgary. The prairies get some good storms and tornadoes 

Yh we ventured into Canada once last year in June and scored a Tornado near Estevan and then crossed back into the USA near Portal. They get some stunners in July with Canola Fields as the back drop

Cant Wait!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, CanadianCoops said:

Hi Paul

Ive usually stayed at the Hilton downtown - which is about 20-25 mins from the airport. This comes in a little on high end. But best western downtown is good I hear at more reasonable prices.

The Nash is a good place to eat on 11th Street. But honestly any pub or restaurant will be good compared to here IMO 

Thats Brilliant

Have looked at the Bessie Wessie as one of the possibles so good you mentioned that, and will defo check out Nash as well

Thanks for the Swift Reply

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Whilst we are awaiting some snow and I have you  boys on here, some advice please

We are having our first Netweather Canadian Chasing this year in July and landing in Calgary on the 14th July

Can I ask you guys what Hotel would you suggest for us to use as a base, closeish to the Airport. Hopefully you know some nice eateries as well or suggest some close to Calgary as well for our initiation meeting etc

Thanks in Advance

Paul

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

So perusing the Mod Thread

Is it OFF again 

 

[Tour 2 2019]

This will cheer ALL the tours up no doubt

Nice early signals

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Tell you something the predicted Temps today have been very wrong esp for the east of our region. Predicted were 4c to 5c and the reality has been 1c to 2c in places

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

ITS STILL PIVOTING!! Hahahaha damn weather

Northern Edge closer to the East Coast now

Thames Estuary stuff just North of Margate stationery or a smidge of a NW Movement.

Lots of snow just offshore

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just my Netweather Sub - Are you using the Dutch radar ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

I would say places like Southwold, Felixstowe, Lowestoft and Yarmouth must be in with a shout first of all

Lets see how the next few frames go

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Lol

Look at the Pivot on the radar, its actually moving NNW about 50 miles out from the Estuary, now where is that going ??

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Gazza said:

Good news with tonight's gfs run.  Next wks potential cold spell being b/fwd to the wk-end!

Brought Forward  What you Mean......What you Mean......Before Day 10 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Temporary dusting in Southend, first of the winter. All turned to slush.

The drive back was really interesting buddy

Billericay a Solid Inch on all surfaces, trees look amazing up there but where I was is 505ft asl

Drove down through Noak Bridge to the A127 and just a 1cm covering, Wickford about the same, you lose the settled snow just past the Rayleigh Weir.

Turned into Leigh on Sea and mostly sleety mess

Temps in Billericay were -2c, It was -1c in Wickford and 0c in Leigh so much more marginal this way

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

This was about 730pm - Very Impressive in a North Westerly

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Did hammer down here in Eastwood too Paul, roads and paths were covered temporally all melting now! 

Still a nice suprise to see this winters first snowfall and I’m sure it won’t be the last

If you get a chance go to Billericay tomorrow, the difference will blow your mind, just goes to show getting stuck under a heavy precip band for an hour and having 200ft extra elevation really counts in these Set-Ups

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Billericay got Hammered hard - Was getting hard to get around when we left training, dinner plates coming down at times, back in Leigh On Sea and barely a dusting

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Radar

That Blue Arrow just hit me right on the head 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, moogyboobles said:

Lamppost watching has commenced, nothing to report yet in SWF. It's probably a little too warm anyway (3.5 at the moment).

The Temp should fall between 1 and 2c as the precip arrives, the heavier precip the bigger the fall