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The earliest single digit maximum here was 14th October 1997. Its one day before the earliest air frost on 15th October 1981 and two days before the latest 20C, which was 16th October 2017. We're a long way from anything like that though this year!

Turns out today was a date record for the 6th October for us, with the max of 20.6C beating the previous high of 19.8C. Its always been a bit of an anomaly as every other day from 1st-16th October has reached at least 20C in the period 1980-present.

Well its certainly warm with a max of 20.6C, but yet again we haven't had any sunshine at all, just 9.8 hours in the first 6 days of the month. It reminds me of a much warmer version of October 2005. That one had a warm spell from the 10th-12th but was dull with only 69 hours of sunshine. November and December were both sunnier than the October that year.

Nope, I actually meant 1946! 1947 was very dry with just 63.8mm in the Jul-Sep period.

I had a look at our figures and it has kind of fallen under the radar but here it was also the wettest June-September period since 1993. Looking at the Hull figures which go back to 1847: only 1849, 1878, 1881, 1889, 1904, 1910, 1928, 1932, 1946 and 1969 were likely wetter. So most likely the 6th wettest Jul-Sep period in the last 100 years for us too.

Its looking like the front that has been stuck over us for days is going to move north and pep up. A really dreadful start to October here, just overcast and warm with constant light rain or drizzle. We've had just 9 hours of sunshine in 5 days and now it's not even looking like the weekend will be sunny either. The far south will be warm and sunny so that will get the headlines.

UKMO similar at T+48, 15C 850hPa line up to northern England. Looks like its still just the GFS pushing it further south for now.

While this weekend is up in the air for Sat/Sun, afterwards some of the models are now suggesting a more west-based -NAO which keeps the UK in the warmer air. If this keeps getting revised westwards and the low pressure stays to the west coast of Ireland, then we'll have a good chance at the warmest October on record:

UKV, GEM and ARPEGE all have the 850hPa temperature at 15C at this time for Leeds, so GFS is still out on its own for now. It will be interesting to see how the UKMO and ECM 12z runs go.

Anywhere west of higher ground really. Some of these areas see more than 3000mm per year on average: Obviously eastern areas are much drier. Generally, low lying areas away from the coast like Peterborough. Mind you, our wettest ever year here was 859.0mm which would be average or rather dry for many parts of the UK. Only 7 years have recorded over 750mm for us since 1980.

Its almost impossible to tell what the weather will be in Northern England on Saturday at the moment. GFS 00z had us 21C and cloudy, 06z had 13C and cloudy, 12z appears to be back to 21C again with sunny spells. All looks a bit knife-edge. I fear up here at least, we'll just end up cloudy and muggy with temps in the 18-20C range. Basically what we'll have tomorrow.

Widespread low-20s out to Wednesday now, but three days later maxes in the 4-7C range. That would certainly be a shock to the system!

A month behind indeed, I was thinking similar. We've already had a 17C September. I would not be surprised to see a 13-14C October and a 10C November. The warmest Autumn on record looks possible already as there's not much cold to tap into.

Probably best to put this in here as those figures are not adjusted to take into account differences in sunshine recorders: Wide areas of the south-east actually above 175 hours.

Nothing in this area in 2000, 2008 or 2010. 2012 had a few showers as you say, though all of those missed me.

The 1981-2010 mean being used here on the daily updates leaves me scratching my head. The 1991-2020 mean should be being used now.

We've just come out of a triple-dip La Nina, if anything the globe should be cooler. Its not down to the patterns as we've just had a July and August that barely tapped into southern sourced air yet both struggled to fall below 16C on the CET. Our cold sources of air are less cold and warm sources warmer than previously. There's one main reason for that.

Warm and wet: 12.5C and 131mm

Locally here it has never happened, though 2000 came closest as it had the following means: June 14.4C July 14.5C August 16.8C September 14.7C This year is further off as June was 1C cooler than July due to that easterly first 10 days.

Except you're wrong as usual because it wasn't: Factcheck: What Greenland ice cores say about past and present climate change WWW.CARBONBRIEF.ORG A misleading graph purporting to show that past changes in Greenland’s temperatures dwarf modern climate change has been circling the internet since at least 2010. It was about 1C cooler than now.

Today is utterly dreadful. Almost 11am and its so dark I need the light on. Very heavy rain at the moment. I cant see us hitting the forecast 22C.

I fail to see how 20C 850hPa temps have any relationship to what happens in three months time. We've had very warm starts to October and then very cold winters like 1985/86 (and vice versa).

136 hours here so far. The 1991-2020 average for September is 146 hours so we'll at least make that. Today has been much duller than expected though. It looked like it would be a sunny morning with cloud building through the day but instead it has just been cloudy for the most part.

How about we just discuss the weather? Its a weather-enthusiast forum after all. There's lots of interesting weather with varying levels of danger. The rules also state any form of weather guilt-tripping isn't allowed.

January 1996 was the dullest month I've ever recorded too. We had just 15 hours that month and it came after only 38 hours in the December. March 1996 was also poor that year with just 46 hours. The January and March were two of only five months in 43 years with less 50% of average sunshine here. December 2002 was another of the five with 21 hours. More recently July and August 2020 were exceptionally dull with just 97 and 132 hours each. That's only 18 hours more than January and February 2022 combined.