reef

We've had just 227.8mm since 27th April. Its been an exceptionally dry period.

Its all looking a bit '2015' at the moment: very mild, extremely wet (in the west) and dull everywhere. Hopefully we get a calmer spell mid-month, though GFS and ECM aren't agreeing on that.

I was just about to mention this. October was exceptionally sunny here with 144 hours in total, making it the sunniest on record. It extends a run of sunnier than average months this year: May: 280hrs (139%) - sunniest on record June: 241hrs (131%) - 3rd sunniest July: 267hrs (134%) - 2nd sunniest August: 190hrs (103%) September: 158hrs (109%) October: 144hrs (133%) - sunniest on record November: 14hrs (204%) to the 3rd. It's been quite a year. We're on 1649hrs already when the 1981-2010 average for the whole year is 1547hrs. It's going to finish well above average.

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Mild and slightly wetter than average: 7.9C and 102mm

Its certainly turning into an extended dry period now. The last 6 months (26th April - 25th October) has had only 211.0mm of rain here - just 63% of normal. Only 33 (out of 183) days in that period have seen >1.0mm of rainfall.

A poor choice of words on my part perhaps. My records start in 1980 so I probably should have said in at least the last 38 years. October 1980 was pretty average.

As opposed to ignoring warming altogether and basing everything on solar cycles? I've never read such utter rubbish in this section as the last few pages in here. It's about time people started posting to the rules of the climate area and backing up their claims with actual scientific evidence rather than waffle. As was asked a few pages back, just what would those on the other side of the argument need to see before they changed their minds? No-one has answered that one yet I see.

Yes, we reached 27.3C that day too, but have never topped 20C later than 16th October. It makes reaching almost 25C today so unusual. As mentioned in the Autumn thread, the minima here this morning of 18.8C was 1.9C warmer than the previous record set on 1st October 1985 and the third warmest of any month back to 1980 - the other two higher minima both being this year in July.

Its worth noting that the min temp of 18.8C this morning didn't only beat the previous October record by a whole 1.9C, but it's actually the third warmest minima of any month here in the last 38 years. The other two days with warmer minima of 18.9C and 19.1C both came in July this year! It's still 19.7C out there now aswell.

We hit 24.8C in the end, making it the 4th warmest October maximum in 38 years of records. What's remarkable is all of the other three days are on the 1st and 3rd of the month, so to hit this high on the 13th was previously unthinkable. We haven't gone above 20C any later than the 16th before and that happened for the first time in 2017! Its also the first time we've ever had 4 consecutive October days above 20C. The previous high was three consecutive days in 2005 and 2011.

Its up to 24.8C here now. We've never had a temperature above 20C past 16th October in 38 years of records, so to reach almost 25C so far into the month is ridiculous.

The sun has come out here aswell now and we've shot up to 24.0C, so its already the 5th warmest October maximum on record.

Today's min is down as 15.2C on Hadley, so warmest since 22nd August.

Looks like the GFS was on the money. It didn't drop below 18.8C all night here. I actually struggled to sleep and it's mid-October!

Last night was the warmest ever in October with a min of 18.8C. Now we're already up to 20.4C despite the cloud and wind. Previous record min was 16.9C on 1st October 1985.

I can't believe how warm it is tonight for mid-October. It's 21:15 in the evening and we're still at 19.4C with a dewpoint of 15.3C. With the wind and cloudcover, I'd say there's a very good chance of tonight being the warmest October min on record here.

The GFS is showing absolutely bonkers temperatures for Saturday. Locally its suggesting a min temp of 18C and max of 25C: Our record high minimum is 16.9C and we've never actually surpassed 20C later than the 16th so to hit anywhere near 25C on the 13th would be outrageous.

This thread is well off course now. A new one for the refreeze is here:

It's time for a new thread as we've passed the minimum this year and the regrowth of Arctic sea ice has begun. As always, please stick to the rules for the section, the end of the last thread was already going well off course.

Exceptionally mild overnight with a min temp of 12.7C. There was a brief spell of heavy rain around 6am which cleared leaving a sunny morning and early afternoon. Cloud has increased in the last two hours but the temperature has still managed to hit 21.3C.

http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/archive/ci/30/i12/html/12learn.html The faint young sun paradox is something I find quite interesting. There's a theory that the Earth's initial first atmosphere was in the region of 50-70bar and through a combination of sputtering and carbonate deposition over time has gradually dropped to today's 1bar - and may continue falling slowly in the future. I'm not sure if a study has been done on this, but it would be interesting to know how 400ppm of Carbon dioxide affects temperature now versus 350mya when atmospheric pressure was potentially much higher. Could it be with a thinner atmosphere now that Carbon dioxide has a larger net effect on warming than before?

Now back open. Enjoy

When people post peer-reviewed papers offering alternative explanations then that would be questioning the science. That never happens of course because there is no question and no-one with any respect has the opposing view. Instead we see rubbish from blogs and youtube videos by vested interests and post-truth nonsense by those who will never be convinced no matter what the evidence. Like Paul mentions above, just what would those with opposing views need to see to change their views? The answer is they never will change their views - in their mind they're right and no-one else can convince them otherwise. With regards to the report, my view is that nothing will happen. When you consider the ignorance around today, the lack of will to do anything both politically and for the majority personally, we'll continue doing what we're doing now until its too late.

Close to average on both counts: 11.1C and 85mm