reef

The GFS is showing absolutely bonkers temperatures for Saturday. Locally its suggesting a min temp of 18C and max of 25C: Our record high minimum is 16.9C and we've never actually surpassed 20C later than the 16th so to hit anywhere near 25C on the 13th would be outrageous.

This thread is well off course now. A new one for the refreeze is here:

It's time for a new thread as we've passed the minimum this year and the regrowth of Arctic sea ice has begun. As always, please stick to the rules for the section, the end of the last thread was already going well off course.

Exceptionally mild overnight with a min temp of 12.7C. There was a brief spell of heavy rain around 6am which cleared leaving a sunny morning and early afternoon. Cloud has increased in the last two hours but the temperature has still managed to hit 21.3C.

http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/archive/ci/30/i12/html/12learn.html The faint young sun paradox is something I find quite interesting. There's a theory that the Earth's initial first atmosphere was in the region of 50-70bar and through a combination of sputtering and carbonate deposition over time has gradually dropped to today's 1bar - and may continue falling slowly in the future. I'm not sure if a study has been done on this, but it would be interesting to know how 400ppm of Carbon dioxide affects temperature now versus 350mya when atmospheric pressure was potentially much higher. Could it be with a thinner atmosphere now that Carbon dioxide has a larger net effect on warming than before?

Now back open. Enjoy

When people post peer-reviewed papers offering alternative explanations then that would be questioning the science. That never happens of course because there is no question and no-one with any respect has the opposing view. Instead we see rubbish from blogs and youtube videos by vested interests and post-truth nonsense by those who will never be convinced no matter what the evidence. Like Paul mentions above, just what would those with opposing views need to see to change their views? The answer is they never will change their views - in their mind they're right and no-one else can convince them otherwise. With regards to the report, my view is that nothing will happen. When you consider the ignorance around today, the lack of will to do anything both politically and for the majority personally, we'll continue doing what we're doing now until its too late.

Close to average on both counts: 11.1C and 85mm

Aside from the usual winter 2013/14 which was the only completely snowless winter here I'll have to go for the two cold spells at the end of February and mid-March this year. Two potent easterlies with sub -15C 850hPa temps which should be the best setup for bucketloads of snow here and we barely had 0.5cm both times. In both events the showers just completely missed us to the north and south. It was perhaps the biggest disappointment with the weather I can remember.

Will reopen this in a couple of weeks as it's probably a month too early for air frosts in most places, never mind snow.

Partly cloudy to start before turning clear in the afternoon. The evening then saw the arrival of the cold front, though nothing more than a band of cloud. Drier air in the afternoon saw an almost 10C drop in dewpoint in less than 30 minutes. The resulting minimum humidity reading of 32% was the 8th lowest of the century so far and lowest in September since 2003. Max Temp: 22.6C Min Temp: 11.5C Mean Wind: 15mph S Max Gust: 24mph Rainfall: None Sunshine: 10.2hrs Currently Mostly cloudy with a moderate northerly wind. Temp is 11.5C and humidity back up to 86%.

It didn't drop lower than 57% here all month in October 2016. The low here today was 32%. Only seven days this century have seen lower, three of which coincidentally were also in September (back in 2003).

A very different month here just 60 miles away. Figures to the 27th based on rolling 1981-2010 averages: Mean: 14.8C (+0.5C) Rainfall: 40.4mm (77%) Sunshine: 138hrs (105%)

The air is extremely dry today for Autumn, just 33% humidity at the moment. With the low sun angle, max temperature of 22.6C and low humidity it feels more like a very warm day in mid-spring than almost October.

It's still looking poor for any real refreezing at the moment, with the models showing a large injection of warm air from the Pacific side next week: The Arctic Ocean as a whole has little sub -5C 850hPa air and by then it's 1st October! Compare that to 2012: Obviously you get variation between years, but the patterns aren't great right now.

Closing this, as its more suited to the climate area. Further to this, there's no issue if people want to restart this topic in the climate area, so long as the rules for that section are followed. We have strict rules in that section for a reason and won't accept people sending things off topic in other areas in an attempt to circumvent them.

So far this thread has been kept open and allowed in the general section but then inevitably turns into a climate slanging match. This is exactly why we have the rules we have in the climate section. Sorry, but closing this now. Feel free to start another one in the climate area keeping to the rules in that section.

Here it was an exceptional summer. It was the warmest on record, joint second sunniest and fourth driest since 1976. We also hit 30C for the first time since 2001. In the period 1st May - 31st August we had an astonishing 978hrs of sunshine - That's almost 8hrs of sunshine per day for a four month period - in the UK! Using the summer index: 1976: 316 2018: 288 1989: 284 1995: 279 2006: 273 1996: 263 2003: 262 2013: 260 1983: 257 1994: 254 1984: 249 1990: 244 1991: 233 2001: 233 1999: 232 2009: 232 2005: 231 1979: 231 1992: 231 2015: 230 2010: 230 1981: 227 2014: 224 2017: 223 2002: 220 2000: 220 1997: 219 1993: 218 2016: 216 2007: 215 2004: 214 1998: 206 2011: 204 2008: 203 1982: 202 1988: 202 1977: 201 1986: 194 1985: 190 1980: 186 2012: 185 1978: 179 1987: 165 (1976-1979 using local figures)

Hadley is confirmed as 16.6C, a 0.4C downwards correction. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 5th warmest summer on record at 17.27C

Warmer and drier than average: 14.9C and 45mm

Apart from the fact that pretty much none of the last 20 posts or so have anything to do with Arctic sea ice, the rules in this section are quite clear. Anything further and people might find they aren't able to post in here. Thanks

This cold front sure has prepped up a bit! We were only supposed to have a short spell of light or moderate rain but it's chucking it down and has dropped almost 17mm already!

With 10 days remaining we're still running at a mean of 19.3C here. The warmest August on record was 1990 with a mean of 18.5C. We only need the remaining days to average 17.1C to beat the record, though its unlikely now with the weather this weekend. It all depends how much it warms up next week.

Its extremely warm tonight. The temperature dipped to 19.5C briefly just before midnight but it has since risen to 20.1C.

Very warm and humid here today with a max of 25.9C coming after a min of 16.8C. Current mean for the month is 19.4C, which is pretty high when you consider the warmest August on record here was 18.5C in 1990. We're also on 102hrs of sunshine for the month already. Its been a good summer month so far.