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reef

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Everything posted by reef

  1. This rubbish again. The last four years have been pretty poor but before that we had four out of five below average winters with some great snow events and some notably cold months. How anyone can say we don't get blocked winter months anymore is utterly wrong when we've only just had January 2010, December 2010 and March 2013 (spring but at 2.7C CET coldest for over a century) which were very cold indeed. We're in a run of poor winters right now, but then again between December 1970 and December 1976 every winter month was above average. The same applies from Jan 1997 to Dec 2001. We've always had runs of mild winters in the UK. The idea that a switch has been flicked and favourable winter blocking is gone with only 0.8C of warming since pre-industrial times is utter nonsense.
  2. Continuing on from the discussion in the old thread... Longer term you have to look at where any recovery might come from. The ENSO forecast suggests yet another moderate or strong El Nino this winter, so we could yet again be looking at a globe warmer than the long-term trend. That's more heat being transferred north when the ice is still suffering from the hit of the last 12 months. I wonder if this current period will look like another step change downwards similar to around 2007?
  3. Closing this, please continue in the melt thread. Cheers
  4. Its certainly looking like the second half of the month will be much cooler than the first. As the first half was 9.7C (provisionally), I wonder if we could be in contention for the coldest second half relative to the first on record. It could easily be more than 2C colder and as Kevin mentions, colder than March too.
  5. It never actually made a first stand! Its all rather typical though isn't it. Greenland highs and northerly blocking seem impossible in winter but then in spring and summer up it pops. If it was a clean northerly with sunshine and heavy wintry showers then I wouldn't mind, but it doesn't look that way unfortunately.
  6. Ridiculous warmth for so early in the month today. We reached 23.1C in the end, which is 12.0C above the 1981-2010 average for the 9th and only 0.9C short of the warmest April maxima we've ever recorded in 37 years. Before 2007 we'd only reached 20C twice before April 16th, but since then we've managed it 6 times and two of those days were 22.6C and 23.1C.
  7. I was sceptical of that original figure for the 30th as we had a mean here of 15.7C and are very much north of the CET zone. Its quite impressive how warm that is for late March. Been a while since we had an upward adjustment too!
  8. That's quite strange, I'm running an oregon sensor in a Davis 7714 shield and it matches my Davis VP2 with FARS within 0.3C at almost all times. The only issue as you'd expect is the slower response time of the unaspirated 7714 against the FARS of the VP2. Careful when comparing other readings with your own as it may just be that your area/garden is simply warmer at night.
  9. It was indeed the warmest on record for us (since 1980), with a mean of 8.9C (+2.5C), beating 1990 by 0.5C. Hadobs seems to be down again at the moment.
  10. I run 24 hour FARS on my Davis VP2 and have found it makes a difference in responsiveness so you are more likely to pick up maxima and minima when there are abrupt changes in temperatures. On hot days there can be a degree or two difference aswell. Ironically on cold, calm nights it reads slightly higher on occasion, but more accurately as you're measuring the actual air temp rather than being affected by radiative cooling on the ISS casing. I don't use the Davis FARS fan though as they are quite frankly rubbish. I run my station fan on a 12v supply from the mains so it truly is 24/7 after finding the Davis fans failing every couple of months. For the last two years I have been using a Xerox photocopier fan (which is circular and actually looks like it was made to fit!) and have seen excellent results. I wouldn't say it was essential in the UK for FARS, but I like the best readings, so I have the 24/7 FARS along with the more accurate SHT31 sensor (+/-0.2C in the entire range) to make sure that is the case. I do however have similar issues with the wind vane in that there are quite a few high trees in this area, but I'd say your anemometer is positioned as best as possible there. It will be accurate for your location which is what matters. At the end of the day we don't live in exposed airfields like most of the Metoffice sites!
  11. 9.9C Very warm, but looking at some of these guesses it might be on the low end of the list!
  12. Its looking likely it will finish on 8.9C (+2.5C) here, which smashes the previous record of 8.4C set in 1990. Comfortably the warmest March on record and worth noting that only 9 Aprils have been warmer in the last 37 years.
  13. After the warmest minima in 37 years of records yesterday, today was even higher with a min of 12.8C, meaning we've smashed the record set in 2000 by 1.4C. Yesterday's max of 19.0C was the 3rd warmest March max in the same 1980-2017 period (and probably since 1965). The mean temp of 15.7C was also a whole 1.4C warmer than the record set in March 1990. A remarkable spell. Currently mostly cloudy with sunny spells and a temp of 15.3C.
  14. Exceptional warmth for March here. The min last night was 12.4C, beating the previous 37 year record set in 2000 by a whole 0.6C. Today is already up to a max of 17.7C, which is the 6th warmest March day in the same 1980-2017 period. The mean temp of 15.1C beats the previous high of 14.3C on 18th March 1990 by quite some way. March as a whole is on a mean of 8.6C, so we're certain to beat March 1990's record of 8.4C now.
  15. Getting up this morning for work was utterly rotten, alarm clock at 4.45am was really 3.45am. Why we don't just leave the clocks on one or the other Ill never know.
  16. Very dry air here today for somewhere so close to the coast. We had a minimum humidity of just 18%, which is the lowest I've ever recorded. The previous low was 28% back in August 2003. The dewpoint dropped to -10.8C when this 18% was recorded, which is also the lowest since December 2010. I imagine locally its the lowest humidity since March 1965, or possibly ever.
  17. Warm, sunny and clear after a rare air frost this morning. The air is extremely dry with the dewpoint down to -9.5C and the humidity at just 20%. That is the lowest I've ever recorded at this site and very rare indeed this close to the coast. Currently 12.6C after a max of 14.3C.
  18. Another very mild night. Yesterday's min of 10.6C was the warmest since 2004, but last nights was even higher at 11.2C, making it the 2nd warmest in 37 years and highest since 2000. It is currently cloudy and overcast but dry with a temp of 12.2C.
  19. We're at 8.6C (+2.5C) now, which is 0.2C higher than the current warmest March on record (1990). It will probably rise again tomorrow before dropping back, but to be this high 18 days into the month when its a warming month is impressive.
  20. The long term trend is about 0.8C per century. That may be accelerating but we wont know for decades if that is the case. The above trend temperatures over the last three years are more likely to be El nino related. We also dont know how a quiet sun or changes to ocean currents from a more exposed Arctic ocean could affect things. The path is clearly up but it could be a bumpy one.
  21. Another lovely day today, slightly cooler than yesterday but little wind at the moment so it actually feels much warmer. Currently 14.4C, so a good 6C above average for the time of year. Today increases our monthly mean to 8.2C, so only 0.2C short of the record set in 1990 (8.4C) now. A good chance this will be the warmest March on record if the GFS 06z were to come to fruition.
  22. Up to 15.6C today making it comfortably the warmest day of the year so far. Its sunny aswell, so much better than the mild, cloudiness so far this month. Our mean temp for the month is currently very mild at 8.1C, which is equal to how 2012 finished.
  23. This month could quite quickly become a contender for warmest March in 37 years of records here if the second half is moderately warm. Our current mean is 7.8C, which is 2.0C above the rolling 1981-2010 average to the 13th. The warmest March was 1990 with a mean of 8.4C (and 1997 was 2nd warmest at 8.2C), so we're definitely up there. March 1990 was only 7.7C to the 13th, so we're ahead at the moment.
  24. An overcast and mild start after light rain at times overnight. The last couple of hours has seen it become dry with sunny spells and turning quite mild. Currently 11.2C and 74% humidity after a min this morning of 6.3C. 0.4mm of rain so far.
  25. Just to add, if you wish to discuss the 'winter' (I use the term loosely!) then there is the summaries thread here:
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