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Its subtle, but the GFS 12z is quite a bit different to the 06z. On this run the cold air doesn't make it as far east, so when the front arrives on Monday night it is mainly rain away from high ground: The rest of the run is then pretty much what we've had all winter: polar maritime incursions followed by a day or so of less cold weather before the next wave comes in. They are particularly potent though, so northern and western areas would do extremely well. For those in the east and south-east it would be much like winter so far: that is, dry and sunny with the slim chance of showers making it through for a dusting or hoping for unforecast features such as troughs closer to the time. The UKMO is slightly better, but away from the far south-east the upper flow isn't favourable for any showers. Its pretty much a kent-clipper.

Close to average on both fronts: 4.7C and 80mm

For once we're in the right place there. That milder area is a band of precipitation getting undercut in both directions by cold air. A similar setup delivered nicely in Feb 2012.

The warm weather can wait in my opinion, as we've had no lying snow since 30th November (and even that wasn't measurable) and just two frosts since mid-December. I'd like to see something before its too late this year. Not to mention Spring 2017 was the warmest on record and we hit 20.8C as recently as 16th October! I don't begrudge anyone warmer weather but we did the exact same sequence last year (After a mild winter, March, May and June were all the warmest on record here) and I fancy a change! It'd be nice to get a variable spring followed by a summer with the heat in the second half rather than another cack August.

The 2008-2013 period was quite strange from a winter / annual CET point. There was a definite trend of more extended periods of below average temperatures, sometimes season-long. Even 2011 with its 10.70C annual CET had that well below average 14.8C summer. The other years were all pretty average or below. Logic suggests that with just 0.8C of background warming then cold and snowy periods are only slightly less probable than before. We just seem to be stuck in a rut of a pattern where cold spills out of the US, fires up the jet and doesn't allow any favourable blocking to deliver cold to the UK. The same areas have been getting hit over and over. I'm guessing similar patterns took hold from 1910 and 1972. The Arctic has been abnormally warm in the last couple of winters, so with all that cold spilling outwards surely we'll get hit eventually?

It always amazes me how easy it is to get exceptionally high maxima nowadays (at least in the winter half at least). 4 of the 6 days with maxima above 14.0C here since 1980 have all come in the last four years. Seemingly out of nowhere today has got to just 0.6C from the record high and joint 5th overall. Meanwhile it has only dropped below -5C in January 4 times in the last 21 years.

Generally mostly cloudy with occasional sunny spells in the afternoon. Exceptionally mild with a max of 14.2C, making it the joint 5th warmest January maxima here since 1980.

Last year certainly delivered on that front. We had a 6.1C February and then the warmest spring in the CET record! The weather company forecast last year went for March and April to both be colder than normal, so by that reckoning from this year's forecast we're in for a cold, snowy one most likely. On a personal note, I've not had any measurable snow in 5 years, so unless February delivers I won't be too bothered if March delivers on that front. Just so long as its a varied spring and not all mild all the way through like 2009. That was a boring one.

Nothing measureable (as usual) here, but still a reasonable, if patchy covering. It has stopped now but stayed as snow throughout on the first band. Still pretty cold though at 0.4C.

Still hanging on as snow here aswell with a white covering now. Its quite heavy at the moment.

Moderate snow for the last couple hours here. There's a light dusting at the moment, not much but didn't expect anything so nice to see. Temp is 0.6C.

It's looking more and more like a mild month here, as we're currently on 4.8C (+0.5C) to the 18th and yet to record an air frost in January! The 12z GFS would see us on 5.7C by the end of the month, which would make it the mildest since 2008.

It's more to do with the setups being extremely marginal in recent years. -5C or -6C 850hPa temps just wont do, it needs to be -7C or -8C at least ideally. In a direct easterly I've known rain at -8C 850hPa before now. The most reliable setup is a NNE blast with at least -8C 850hPa temps, but in recent years they've been all but extinct in the winter months. You're right though, a potent NE or E with -10C or lower and we're hammered, though I can count on one hand how many of these there have been in the last 30 years.

A complete fail here yet again. We had that one snow shower around 7pm which left a dusting but it melted after a couple of hours. Pretty much nothing since other than a sleet shower at 2am. Its actually been above 1.2C all night and has currently risen to 2.4C. Not hopeful for tonight either.

Yes, its starting to lay now as the temperature has started falling with the heavier stuff. Down to 0.7C with a dewpoint of -0.6C, so we're finally the right side of marginal. It shows how desperate we've become in these parts in recent years when snow from a westerly is the highlight of the winter so far!

Its finally snowing here now but its so wet that it's not really doing anything. Still too mild at the moment at 1.5C, though the dewpoint has come down to 0.2C so getting close.

Raining here at 1.6C! There were a few flakes mixed in earlier but its back to all rain now its lighter.

The GFS 00z run is probably the snowiest run for quite some time. We go from cold zonal westerly, to northerly followed by a potent easterly right at the end of FI. Just about everywhere would be hit at some point or other: Western areas: North and east: Potentially everywhere: One can only hope it comes to fruition.

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Yes, its the classic sinker we seem to get nearly every winter. Even if it managed to be further west with a bit of cold air dragged across it would be cold and dry as the flow would be more south-easterly. All it will do in reality is sit there and slowly sink over Europe as the northern arm of the jet puts pressure on it. You only have to look at the deep cold pouring out from the East coast of the US to know the jet will be strong. All this high pressure will do is waste another week or two of winter before we get the inevitable zonality. We'll be stuck in no-man's land with little 'weather' to speak of.

Can we stick to discussing the models and not the MetOffice forecast. There is another thread elsewhere for that purpose: Thanks

Are you sure John? I was always under the impression it was 0900-0900 UTC, which in British summer time is an hour later? If it transferred when the clocks do then you'd essentially lose an hour in spring and gain one in Autumn?

The official method is 09:00 to 09:00 GMT (or 10:00 to 10:00 BST), with the maximum temperature in that time period being for the previous day (so a max temp in that 24 hours on Monday at 7am would go down as Sunday's maximum) and then the minimum as the following day (a min temp in that 24 hours at 11am on Monday would be Tuesday's value). For rainfall, all that falls between 09:00 and 09:00 GMT is for the previous day (so if 5mm of rain falls on Monday at 6am that will be included in Sunday's figure). Personally I prefer 00:00 to 00:00 (especially with an AWS like a Davis VP2) but keep up two records using both methods these days.

Slightly milder and wetter than average: 4.9C and 120mm

Rubbish as expected here again, just heavy rain throughout. A couple of weeks to go and it'll be 5 years since we had any measurable snow in the winter months (Dec, Jan and Feb). Surely our luck has to change at some point.