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Considering we actually had a yellow weather warning today was a massive disapointment. We had a slight dusting but it turned back to rain in the end as the temperature has now actually gone just the wrong side of marginal. Currently 1.6C with a dewpoint of 0.2C and pretty wet and miserable out there. It's now 5 years and 1 month since we had measurable lying snow with a very real chance we'll reach 6 years if the next couple of months don't deliver. Never thought I'd be saying that a few years ago.

It has been snowing lightly here for the last half an hour or so, turning moderate in the last 10 minutes. Current temp is 0.2C with a dewpoint of -1.4C so should be good for a dusting at least.

It depends on the exact positioning of the high and the air source at the surface. Its almost 10 years ago that many areas had ice days from this: Uppers look pretty average but it was cold and sunny with hard frosts.

We're in no-mans land at the moment it seems. Too far north for any precipitation during the initial part today and too far south-east before the front fizzles on Tuesday. At least it's sunny though.

Except here of course, where it falls as rain when the band is most intense according to the GFS: Which means it'll be 100% correct, haha.

That'd be about right, a band of precipitation stalling between sources of cold air to the east and west and falling here as.... ...Rain. If it wasn't so likely to be correct it'd be funnier!

Weirdly I don't know anyone at all who's had it! The last person I know to get flu was myself in June. It must be happening in clusters.

Sorry, up to the lower-res section (pre-T+240hrs).

Its subtle, but the GFS 12z is quite a bit different to the 06z. On this run the cold air doesn't make it as far east, so when the front arrives on Monday night it is mainly rain away from high ground: The rest of the run is then pretty much what we've had all winter: polar maritime incursions followed by a day or so of less cold weather before the next wave comes in. They are particularly potent though, so northern and western areas would do extremely well. For those in the east and south-east it would be much like winter so far: that is, dry and sunny with the slim chance of showers making it through for a dusting or hoping for unforecast features such as troughs closer to the time. The UKMO is slightly better, but away from the far south-east the upper flow isn't favourable for any showers. Its pretty much a kent-clipper.

Close to average on both fronts: 4.7C and 80mm

For once we're in the right place there. That milder area is a band of precipitation getting undercut in both directions by cold air. A similar setup delivered nicely in Feb 2012.

The warm weather can wait in my opinion, as we've had no lying snow since 30th November (and even that wasn't measurable) and just two frosts since mid-December. I'd like to see something before its too late this year. Not to mention Spring 2017 was the warmest on record and we hit 20.8C as recently as 16th October! I don't begrudge anyone warmer weather but we did the exact same sequence last year (After a mild winter, March, May and June were all the warmest on record here) and I fancy a change! It'd be nice to get a variable spring followed by a summer with the heat in the second half rather than another cack August.

The 2008-2013 period was quite strange from a winter / annual CET point. There was a definite trend of more extended periods of below average temperatures, sometimes season-long. Even 2011 with its 10.70C annual CET had that well below average 14.8C summer. The other years were all pretty average or below. Logic suggests that with just 0.8C of background warming then cold and snowy periods are only slightly less probable than before. We just seem to be stuck in a rut of a pattern where cold spills out of the US, fires up the jet and doesn't allow any favourable blocking to deliver cold to the UK. The same areas have been getting hit over and over. I'm guessing similar patterns took hold from 1910 and 1972. The Arctic has been abnormally warm in the last couple of winters, so with all that cold spilling outwards surely we'll get hit eventually?

It always amazes me how easy it is to get exceptionally high maxima nowadays (at least in the winter half at least). 4 of the 6 days with maxima above 14.0C here since 1980 have all come in the last four years. Seemingly out of nowhere today has got to just 0.6C from the record high and joint 5th overall. Meanwhile it has only dropped below -5C in January 4 times in the last 21 years.

Generally mostly cloudy with occasional sunny spells in the afternoon. Exceptionally mild with a max of 14.2C, making it the joint 5th warmest January maxima here since 1980.

Last year certainly delivered on that front. We had a 6.1C February and then the warmest spring in the CET record! The weather company forecast last year went for March and April to both be colder than normal, so by that reckoning from this year's forecast we're in for a cold, snowy one most likely. On a personal note, I've not had any measurable snow in 5 years, so unless February delivers I won't be too bothered if March delivers on that front. Just so long as its a varied spring and not all mild all the way through like 2009. That was a boring one.

Nothing measureable (as usual) here, but still a reasonable, if patchy covering. It has stopped now but stayed as snow throughout on the first band. Still pretty cold though at 0.4C.

Still hanging on as snow here aswell with a white covering now. Its quite heavy at the moment.

Moderate snow for the last couple hours here. There's a light dusting at the moment, not much but didn't expect anything so nice to see. Temp is 0.6C.

It's looking more and more like a mild month here, as we're currently on 4.8C (+0.5C) to the 18th and yet to record an air frost in January! The 12z GFS would see us on 5.7C by the end of the month, which would make it the mildest since 2008.

It's more to do with the setups being extremely marginal in recent years. -5C or -6C 850hPa temps just wont do, it needs to be -7C or -8C at least ideally. In a direct easterly I've known rain at -8C 850hPa before now. The most reliable setup is a NNE blast with at least -8C 850hPa temps, but in recent years they've been all but extinct in the winter months. You're right though, a potent NE or E with -10C or lower and we're hammered, though I can count on one hand how many of these there have been in the last 30 years.

A complete fail here yet again. We had that one snow shower around 7pm which left a dusting but it melted after a couple of hours. Pretty much nothing since other than a sleet shower at 2am. Its actually been above 1.2C all night and has currently risen to 2.4C. Not hopeful for tonight either.

Yes, its starting to lay now as the temperature has started falling with the heavier stuff. Down to 0.7C with a dewpoint of -0.6C, so we're finally the right side of marginal. It shows how desperate we've become in these parts in recent years when snow from a westerly is the highlight of the winter so far!

Its finally snowing here now but its so wet that it's not really doing anything. Still too mild at the moment at 1.5C, though the dewpoint has come down to 0.2C so getting close.

Raining here at 1.6C! There were a few flakes mixed in earlier but its back to all rain now its lighter.