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Well our 5 year wait for measurable lying snow is now officially over. Its just a shame its only 1cm! Hopefully the showers pep up soon as the sunshine is starting to get to work and I can hear the dreaded 'drip drip'. Currently 0.1C after a low of -1.4C overnight.

Here we sit, in an easterly, with areas west of the Pennines getting pasted while there's just a sugar coating here. Hopefully the showers are potent later because you couldn't make it up so far!

Pretty much, but not sure why. I think the issue is that this is probably the best setup possible for this location for snow. The worry is if it doesn't deliver, then what? I'll probably have to become a mild fan....er, maybe not!

Yes, I'm hoping so. Its a shame the flow looks more ESE on Thursday onwards as that transfers the best of the shower activity northwards. Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon still looks like the most promising period.

Really quite disappointed with the move west. We're now relying on shower activity from Tuesday morning onwards to deliver the goods and the models have that dying out by Thursday morning. The window seems to be getting smaller and I'm not entirely convinced on the Friday / Saturday potential here either.

Snowing lightly here now after the first shower fell as hail around 11pm. There's a few showing on the radar to the east but it's still a bit too warm really at 1.5C. They're starting to pile up in the North sea now though, so possibly a dusting by morning.

Initial showers will be more soft hail and grauple rather than snowflakes due to the relatively stable conditions aloft and the source being more SE than E. That will change over the next 12 hours though as the flow becomes more E/ENE and 500hPa temperatures fall, introducing more instability and convection. Then we'll start seeing beefy snow showers and the risk of thunder.

Its pretty difficult to say until it actually forms, but anywhere in our region could be hit as it stands. From NW-SR model: It's associated with slightly warmer uppers, though its weird saying that as they're still -9C at 850hPa level. Usually in cold spells those kind of uppers are the cold bit! No sign of marginality this week.

The cold air is really starting to come in now. Even here close to the coast with a keen easterly wind its already down to -0.1C and dewpoint of -5.4C. Liking the models tonight too, there's pretty much a polar low especially for East Yorkshire on Tuesday morning. From Russia with love.

Yes, how dare we not use more of our free time on a weekend (voluntarily I might add) to sieve through a thread deleting 10s or hundreds MORE posts because people post off-topic, can't be bothered to post in the right place, or whinge for whinging sake! There's not that many of us and we already spend a lot of time trying to keep the thread on topic. We're weather enthusiasts too and would like to spend some time enjoying whats coming up aswell!

Looking forward to this, its about the best possible setup for us here. At least after 5 years of waiting for some measurable lying snow we're going to get some payback! There could be a chance we'll get record low maximums for February and March too. Havent had a February ice day for over 10 years!

So, just on the last 3 pages alone that's 32 posts that have had to be removed for being off-topic. That's despite three warnings from the team asking nicely for people to think before they post. This thread is very busy and people are understandably very excited, but please do us (and everyone) a favour and stick to the models! Thanks

The ensembles are at least looking good still for the 12z GFS. The operational run is pretty much one of the warmer options from the 28th. The scatter does increase the further north you go though, showing the models are struggling with the position of the high pressure after the 27th.

Its still an extremely good run, but by T+180 the high pressure is already retrogressing up towards Greenland. We're still all in around -12C 850hPa air, but the winds are more south-easterly by that point with the main cold pool aiming itself towards the continent rather than us. Its a subtle change compared to the 06z GFS, but would have large implications for the amount and duration of the heavy snow showers. I think the best way to describe this run is good but not great.

The GFS, ICON and GEM are good for us, but the UKMO and ECM less so. The differences are slight, but they have a huge effect on what weather we see up here. This chart from the GFS at T+168 for example is good for us. The flow is ENE with a long sea track, pressure is sub-1030hPa and the greens and blues indicate the atmosphere is unstable. Couple that with 850hPa temps of nearly -14C and we have the recipe for lots of convection and very heavy snow showers with significant accumulations: The ECM on the other hand here at T+192 from this morning is much worse: There's less isobars over us, so less wind and higher temperatures in the sunshine. We're under oranges so the atmosphere is more stable and pressure is above 1035hPa. In this situation the 850hPa temp is still -12C or so, but convection would be weak and temperatures in the sunshine would creep up to 2-3C. We'd get a few flurries, but little in the way of accumulations. The difference is subtle, but it has huge ramifications for our weather up here. My main problem is, generally you wouldn't bet against the ECM and UKMO at this range. Hopefully tonight's ECM is better.

I don't like this trend to gradually move the high southwards. If it keeps happening as we approach the time, our region could well be cold, dry and sunny with very occasional flurries. ECM has 850hPa temps of -12C or so, but we're under 1036hPa air pressure and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. We'd be lucky to get a few flurries and temps of 2-3C by day in such a setup as the convection in the North Sea would hit a cap and remain pretty weak. If this one fails, I give up!

The reliability of the Davis VP2 is pretty good nowadays, aside from the rubbish FARS fans! I haven't had a failure (touch wood) since 2011 now. Back then I had a supercap failure in my anemometer transmitter (2010), an actual anemometer itself go (2011) and an old SHT11 sensor go (also 2011). I've burned through four FARS fans though - some lasting less than a couple of months. These days I too am using the updated SHT31 sensor, though no humidity issues on mine and a photocopier fan wired to the mains at 9 volts running 24/7 (running 3 years solid now). Its probably the best setup you can get without mega money. As for the current charts, they're pure filth for this area. They are literally the best setup you can get for us. Fingers crossed!

Yes, this is a pretty dry and cold run for most in England, with Scotland being the focus of the intense cold and heavy snow. Still, at T+200 its just good to get cold air coming in, details will come later.

The 12z GFS run shows how annoying little shortwaves forming can delay the cold moving west. It'll probably still be alright eventually on this run, but that little feature off Norway delays things 24-36 hours.

Now the 12z runs are coming out this thread will no doubt get very busy, so if you could be so kind as to consider which thread your post should be in then it will make things more enjoyable for all and save the team work removing posts. For discussion on today's Earthquake: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/47470-earthquake-activity-thread/ SSW related cold spell discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/ Model moans and ramps thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Many thanks.

As mentioned by Nick above, we have an Earthquake thread already, so closing this. Cheers

When I caught flu in June 2017 it was actually from visiting the GP for a simple blood pressure check. I have no idea why people choose to go and willingly sit in a waiting room, touching door handles, coughing, sneezing and spreading it to other people when they don't need too. As you say, the GP can't actually do anything for them and if they had a genuine risk of complications they'd probably be at A&E anyway. I've only had flu in 2002, 2008 and 2017 and its totally unmistakeable from the common cold - 4 days in bed and a cough afterwards for 8 weeks too.

Although you can't predict exactly at this range, today's models have so far told us quite a lot. Firstly, there's been a definite trend for the high pressure which was supposed to be in situ over the UK after the weekend to be pushed forwards in time and be much weaker when it finally appears. The next trend is for the Atlantic to be much stronger with the high eventually establishing further to the east and leaving us in more of a southerly or south-easterly flow: The GFS 06z/12z Op runs and ECM 12z have all shown this trend now. It has the effect of preventing a first bite of the cherry and leaving us again looking into FI for another go. Beyond that we can't really tell much. Even at T+144 the ECM and GFS would give vastly different weather on the ground under flabby high pressure: ECM has an injection of polar maritime air beforehand, giving sunny days and frosty nights, whereas the GFS has warmer uppers and potentially more cloud trapped in the high. Depending on which of these occurs, the month-end CET could be massively different. It all depends how the SSW has affected things. There has been a clear trend this winter for the polar vortex over Canada to be utterly relentless. The question is whether over the next few days the models show this to still be the case this time, or whether it will finally relent enough to give us our cold spell...eventually.

So basically its not a graphical issue, it just looks worse because it is worse. Less data and less resolution, a backwards step unfortunately.

I can only echo what others here think about the new graphics. What needs to change: - Zoom in to the UK at bit, as Nick says above, do we really need to see 1000 miles of Atlantic and Sweden? - The place names cover large areas of the country and need to either go or be more transparent. - Its too hard to distinguish cloud / sunshine / rain / snow. A better contrast is needed. Another one is the temperature colour maps, which are a big loss, as are the coloured numbers (now just white with a dash of colour underneath). Just subtle things that make it easier to watch.