[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

A swing back of the pendulum this morning,perhaps.

Still differences at 144,UKMO looks decent so fingers crossed  

By day 8 GEM looks lovely

Edit by 168 ukmo is indeed brill

You couldn't make it up ,EC is awful.

Fed up of this now time for a break.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 midlandsun

12z runs will be critical,one things for sure if it's 11 degrees and rain EC can sling it's hook.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Exeter very unsure about the bank holiday weekend.

I do hope it doesn't go wrong again, there is the possibility of westerly winds and spells of rain spreading in from the west .

Perhaps my 'If it can go wrong it will ' post the other day when EC was looking superb will prove accurate ..

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Mean is fine.

Probably not a heatwave but will be pleasant in any sunshine ..west is probably best ,actually south west will probs be best.

Either way, at long last a change is on the way ...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Scorcher

yep ill gladly sacrifice a ' less good ' mid term for an extended dry warm spell longer term,god knows we are due a dry spell.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Scorcher 

I'm still nervous that it will pan out in our favour,I think after the almost relentless let downs of winter I've kinda developed a semi permanent ' if it can go wrong it will ' mindset,I'm sure it's not just me .

That said I'm hoping for the best ,I'm semi retiring next month at the grand old age of 51 and I'd love to see a long warm spell to usher in my 2 day working weeks !

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EC 12z even better than the 00z !!

A few snapshots..

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Scorcher

Yes indeed , the North west has endured horrendous weather since October ..

It's the talking point in taxis,workplaces and households for a good while.

Really hoping things improve  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Good news.

EC mean a LOT less aggressive with the southerly tracking jet this morning

Yesterday 12z mean day 10

00z day 9 mean

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Excellent EC 00z this morning ..

Bit of a tightrope at times though in fairness..

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

If only it was .....

On this occasion its a warm easterly 

..

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable  if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally.

As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale.

Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP .

Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter.

One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

It's raining .

I suppose we should be thankful for the odd dry day .

I'm in my 50s and I've never seen anything like the last 6 months or so..

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

It's becoming beyond the joke now.

If this is anything to do with GW we are screwed...

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

It just goes on and on and on...

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Thank God the 00z runs are moving towards HP having more influence from mid month.

It's hardly stopped raining since October in the North west....absolutely appalling 6 months of Atlantic dominated weather.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

After months of rain here comes the snow ( in spring ,as i predicted months ago )..

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EC day 8 

 

our climate is a joke at this point.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

After literally months of rain and slate grey skies there is hope of a change this morning.

EC mean day 9 ...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole

Hopefully we will see a settling down as we move through April.

EC 12z looks unsettled out to day 10 .

One can't help but wonder if the Atlantic ssts are to blame  

Regardless chasing winter weather Nov - Feb is fast becoming a complete waste of time in our new climate.. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 DTHFCJ let's hope you are right

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It just goes on and on..

as if we havent had enough garbage since what, October ?

GW inspired Atlantic ssts are going to give us the wettest climate in the NH,NW England in particular is just horrific.. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

It's just unrelenting garbage.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Cloud 10

Atlantic ssts are devastating the chances of high latitude blocking taking hold IMHO.

Welcome to the new UK  climate , I'd suggest the chances of cold winters are becoming more and more remote as the Atlantic warms...

Only my opinion of course...

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I'm afraid EC 12Z just makes me hate our new climate even more.