northwestsnow

Met4Cast I agree .. I'll pop in here every winter but the tipping point has been reached for me now,there is only so many times you can chase cold and end up with nothing before logic takes over. Whatever combo we get ( nino nina qbo etc) doesn't work for us.. The CC elephant is in the room.

MJB seriously yes .. Take a look at the graph of temperatures in European Winters .. You will see a trend that is impossible to counter..yes there are cold spells are you have pointed out ,but you don't have to be Einstein to see how this will end ref UK cold spells ?

I was going to write an obituary on UK winters .. Anyway, 00z runs pretty much shutting the door on any High Lat blocking effecting us anytime soon, i for one absolutely do subscribe to background drivers like ENSO ,SSTS qbo etc etc but after years of being here it's got to the point whereby any combo doesn't fit for uk winter cold.There is always ,well 99% of the time something that goes wrong. If I had a pound for everytime the eps for example look amazing at day 10 to 15 then downgraded to zilch I'd be a millionaire. Hopefully we can and will see cold spells but they are now becoming almost non existent. I'm losing interest at a rate of knots,I'm only here in winter for the cold and to be honest it's becoming a waste of time ...

feb1991blizzard 30 -40 days ?? You really are hardcore

Met4Cast They are awful. The really worrying thing is even with decent background signals we end up mild and wet,it's happening year in year out. There is an elephant in the room ...

Really poor 00z outputs. I hope we get some relief by means of a block if anything just to dry us out. As far as" winter "is concerned however...

Don yeah Ive had enough now. Only thing keeping me remotely interested is EC46. Each to their own but we need super cold uppers by mid Feb and well,its not going to happen. The sheer volume of rainfall locally this Winter is just diabolical.

The Northern Ramper lamppost watching i cant tell you how many hours i spent staring at the streetlight in the late 70s to mid 80s ...

hope it's a good event for as many as possible. I'm not sure my altitude be as important as expected it will be more the rain shadow effect that spoils things here. Give me an Easterly every single time, kasim has probably explained very well why Oldham does well in an Easterly.. ( north easterlies work too btw).

Kasim Awan Absolutely. BFTE was absolutely epic locally.. Saddleworth gets hammered in an Easterly flow..

Ali1977 fingers crossed for you mate we've spent so many hours chasing down cold spells with little reward this winter I be chuffed for you if the low ends up south..

GEM UKMO look very similar at 144 GEM is a decent run.

sheikhy I think the 12z runs will be conclusive . I'm not confident at all.

EC 6Z is a small move towards GFS .. The low is tilted badly at 90hrs and milder air is moving north.

EC 6Z V 0Z @90

Looks like BBC raw is following GFS !! Rain all the way even up here ...

God I hate GFS.

UKMO and EC do NOT follow GFS .

EC v GFS 96 120 EC

Mean looks a downgrade at first glance.

At first glance the mean is a downgrade. Time for a swing back but EC is a kick in the wetsuits.

Mike Poole permission to RAMP

Further south is good.. If EC follows UKMO the Midlands/ southern crew could be looking at something memorable. So close guys!!

nick sussex drama indeed nick. If anything I hope the low is further south to bring southern regions into the game. if anyone deserves a dump its the southern crew.

sheikhy never doubt EC at that range