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northwestsnow

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Everything posted by northwestsnow

  1. northwestsnow
    So.. now we have to wait and see how day 5 plays out wrt energy distribution .. UKMO still the pick for me at 144 which is a positive because every man and his dog inc EC had virtually all the energy going NE..
  2. northwestsnow
    T'others have come crawling.. You have to say, UKM is a tremendous model..
  3. northwestsnow
    Im not going to concern myself with EC day 10 when 96-144 is fluid..
  4. northwestsnow
    Ahem..
  5. northwestsnow
    Tonight proves this not over ... Energy distribution very complex!! Cold pooling to our NE becoming noticeable now..
  6. northwestsnow
    Looks to me like UKMO has been leading the way here..
  7. northwestsnow
    GFS para shows more disruption and the knock on effect is noticeable from the op..at 288 para op
  8. northwestsnow
    Well we will have to see Crewe- i cant play the long game if the end result is victory UKMO does offer hope closer to now, lets see if EC has a change of heart with the trough disruption this evening..
  9. northwestsnow
    My concern with UKMO , although the scandy high disrupts the first low, is another horrid little fellow sweeping across the Atlantic which may do the damage.. Ive said it a few times now, these lows forming off the ES are utterly relentless , i still feel the atmosphere is pre-disposed to blocking but these lows are a huge achilles heel.
  10. northwestsnow
    Lets just say its complicated !! UKMO has not backed down from disrupting the low, its absolutely chalk and cheese to this mornings EC at 144- UKMO has a good chunk of energy heading SE - still think the Atlantic is coming but early changes could have big ramifications thereafter with the broadscale set up.
  11. northwestsnow
    I didn't...
  12. northwestsnow
    Yup- the tilt on the low on UKMO144 is different to the others, energy, or a good chunk of it is going SE into Europe- A lot depends on the high - we can't see where we need to, but i'd guess its a lot further west than GFS/EC/GEM/ etc..
  13. northwestsnow
    I think we ought to bear in mind UKMO looks very very isolated - we know it can pull it off against all comers, guess we just got to hope this is one of those occasions..
  14. northwestsnow
    Looks a cracker to me- just as i thought it would
  15. northwestsnow
    It will be interesting to see if Exeter change their update later, if they go with the UKM then i suspect they will not change their outlook-Think i will keep the faith that the block will do its job and deflect systems into Europe..
  16. northwestsnow
    Hoooorah !! I was feeling very lonely with my thoughts on UKMO C !!
  17. northwestsnow
    TBH i would just like some restbite from this relentless wind and rain, its literally not stopped raining for like 48 hours here and i worry flooding is going to be an issue again unless it relents.
  18. northwestsnow
    I'm still of the opinion UKMO 144 is a good chart MWB.. EC not as good at the same time it has to be said, small differences can equal big ramifications down the line.. im not saying its correct , all i'm saying is the 168 chart might be a pleasant suprise when it gets posted this morning..
  19. northwestsnow
    168-192 looks very strange to me.. Block gets absolutely smashed..
  20. northwestsnow
    Now then EC.. the block putting up a real fight 144-168...
  21. northwestsnow
    GEM much better than GFS too..
  22. northwestsnow
    GFS is bad... and im at work and its rained here ALL night,again.. I can see flooding becoming an issue again soon in the North west.. Ukmo better though on closer inspection GFS is worse than bad...its an abomination!
  23. northwestsnow
    If you run the 120-144 progression i would say the Atlantic has hit a wall and is disrupting at 144.. But thats only my amatuer opinion.. ps i think wetter shows it better but i cant post the charts..
  24. northwestsnow
    Now then UKMO !! Are you having a change of heart?
  25. northwestsnow
    That looks better
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