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northwestsnow

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Everything posted by northwestsnow

  1. northwestsnow
    A staggeringly positive update from Stewart for coldies-
  2. northwestsnow
    Your not really homing on charts at 324+ hours ? The run has below average temps for literally 10 days prior to that and plenty of cold frosty weather..
  3. northwestsnow
    6Z is also another great run in the strat.. Absolutely consistent of warmings NE and NW ...
  4. northwestsnow
    I would suggest 6Z would produce some snow for elevated parts of Scotland, and any snowcover will maintain for a good week thereafter.. Hope to see some pictures from the lucky ones- it will be lovely and festive.. As it will for much of the UK, without the snowcover ..
  5. northwestsnow
    Who needs a Scandy high?? Long live the Grice - land high!! Truly remarkable 6Z, perhaps unlikely but certainly an option on the table, protracted period of High pressure to our north in Mid Dec? Pretty darn cold persisting and probably intensifying ..
  6. northwestsnow
    Well if you want nice seasonal weather in the run up to Christmas you will love GFS 6z , its dry cold / frosty ... Personally i'd take that run right now if offered it..
  7. northwestsnow
    Brilliant run out to 192- cold air in place next week...
  8. northwestsnow
    I'm guessing with Exeter now suggesting a colder than average winter Glosea is seeing 'developments' in the stratosphere .. Blinkin WZ stuck again at 123 hrs!
  9. northwestsnow
    Yup- i'd suggest some parts in North Scotland will be be white come sunday morning- saturday night first busy night of the season in the Scottish thread if 6Z is right..
  10. northwestsnow
    So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in.. PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..
  11. northwestsnow
    Nitty gritty time fast approaching on 6Z... Placement of the block -(assuming we get one) will be crucial longer term as it will have an effect on the Atlantic lows waiting in the wings... Dont want to see the block sinking SE and the jet coming over, although with events in the strat looking good i don't think it would be a sustained assault anyway..
  12. northwestsnow
    Blimey i just posted about the same thing as you did Stewart - The Scandy high could be a player this Winter.. Not too bothered about an Active Atlantic if we have a block to the NE, esp with a block to the NE re-enforced by a disturbed PV..
  13. northwestsnow
    Absolutely Feb Events up in the strat coupled with Exeters flip to colder than average winter -(Octobers was for above average)leads me to believe Glosea5 is seeing a very weak PV this winter.. ALWAYS good news , not a guarantee of cold weather for the UK of course, but certainly beats a rampant PV every day of the week!
  14. northwestsnow
    TBH when looking at 6z at T48 you'd be hard pressed to think an easterly is even a remote chance! Icelandic low, Euro heights,no HL block anywhere near the UK.. Could be one for Weather historys 'where did that easterly come from' archive..
  15. northwestsnow
    I think the last line is quite important actually, while the block may not sustain, the hope is it has enough 'effect' on the jet to steer the lows on a SE trajectory... Thats kind of what im hoping for..
  16. northwestsnow
    Yes that paints a pretty picture.. even if we dont get a technical SSW the drop in zonal winds will do us no harm.
  17. northwestsnow
    6Z will be interesting, as all the model run are at this time of year- i'm not expecting a big freeze next week but i am hopeful of some seasonal weather at least.. Longer term the hope is the warmings going on up in the strat will help promote High latitude blocking highs , added to that we now have Exeter 'on board' with the last winter update really quite positive.. So, i think there is lots for coldies to be optimistic about ...
  18. northwestsnow
    Yes i think thats a good point.. I'm not convinced any block is going to last very long but i do believe in repeating patterns so i'm hopeful the block will be back down the line..
  19. northwestsnow
    I would imagine a similar story on EC ens too.. That said, i'm not bothered about that, i'm more bothered about getting the block in place, then all options are on the table imho.. As C mentioned above, UKMO 144 is far from convincing in getting the block into scandy imho.
  20. northwestsnow
    It does look like the Azores ridge it going to make it into Scandy, after that, who knows. EC det is lovely but there must be a helluva lot of members that push the block back before it gets chance to establish judging by the mean later on.. GEFS also look cold mid term but again a signal for the high to get shunted out of the way longerterm.. So, easterly looks fairly certain, but it might be brief..
  21. northwestsnow
    Would like to see a flip from the 12z set.. I think we can say with a degree of confidence the change is coming..
  22. northwestsnow
    Feb any news on GEFS?
  23. northwestsnow
    Its Dec and Jan for me- there are many arguments that Feb should be included, and of course Feb is a winter month afterall- but its the sun that is the biggest issue, although of course SSTs will be lower than Dec and Europe more often that not will be colder in Feb.. But for me its the low/weak sun in Dec and of course it being Christmas that tips my favourite month for cold weather.
  24. northwestsnow
    If you have snowcover- (which Feb and myself will almost certainly have if 18z is correct), then the shorter days will make a huge difference, it will assist in the night time temps plummeting for starters - And ice will form earlier in any frosty weather, either way i would much rather have cold weather in Dece than late Feb.. Thats just my preference though, some would prefer cold in late Feb/march i guess?
  25. northwestsnow
    I think that is a crucial point actually- the days don't come much shorter than mid December..
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