northwestsnow

EC is OK, certainly dry and frosty 168 onwards, but there is not enough energy into the southern arm for my liking..

I'm always of the opinion they are the pro's and their updates should be absolutely respected and taken note of. Its an active jet we are looking at so in truth i'm not sure anyone truly knows how Dec is going to pan out Fred, iv'e made my thoughts clear, i felt there was scope for a pattern change, but equally it could change again. The PV looks disorganized at present so thats a positive for now..

GEFS for sure moving in the right direction for coldies..

Yup, the atmos seems pre disposed to Blocking, and i don't think anything has changed, we could debate if the massive SSW in Feb is somehow connected, i'm not sure. Either way, i did comment on the meto update of a stormy zonal December the other day that i didn't buy it, and i still don't.But, the critical piece in this jigsaw is getting the Atlantic to play ball,its entirely possible runs like 12Z could vanish into thin air over the next 48 hours, lets hope the potential hole/vaccum can be filled with the azores high, so often the enemy, perhaps for December 2018 it may turn out to be our friend..

As pointed out above, GFS 12z P looks more amplified this evening.

So, GFS brings festive goodies for all. I'm not going to drop the optimism i have had for days but i would caution about getting carried away with a GFS op, there is much energy in the Atlantic to be resolved before popping the champagne open, i would want to be seeing the T+192 chart at T+72 before being 100% confident. Sorry if that sounds patronizing - its not meant to be, steady as she goes. BUT , what a lovely run up to Christmas that would be!!Sooooooo much better than wind and rain!

But the updates are so fluid its difficult to have much confidence longer term.. I remain cautiously optimistic but thats not worth the paper its written on if i were to be honest. We could do with stewarts input really as the mechanisms at play are defo above my limited pay grade- key for me is 120-168hrs, if we can get that azores high punching a hole in the jet then all options are on the table inc an eastery..

A better update but the updates are changing almost daily. The period around 120-168 hours absolute key for Decembers prospects..

6Z shows us why its wise to be cautious.

GEM and EC very similar by day 10... Just need that to get down to day 4 or 5 now.. I'm long enough in the tooth to know that will not be plain sailing, personally i wouldn't expect Exeter to change their outlook on the basis of the 00z runs.. EC was pretty much an outlier later on so cautious optimism is the buzz phrase for me..

Steady as she goes!! EC det is an eye opener and is moving EXACTLY as i hoped it would, the 'vaccum' in the jet exploited by the az ridge, plenty of water to go under the bridge, IF IF IF we get some consistency over the next 24-48 hours Exeter may have to review the mild wet stormy outlook into December ..

GFS would see temps plummeting in the run up to christmas,struggling to get above zero through the day by the very end.. Of course it will likely be different tomorrow, but if we can just eeeek out a little break in the jet then its not out of the question...

Thats one helluva anticyclone on 18z. 1050mb scandy - beautiful to look at, lets hope it inches closer to the finishing line tomorrow

Are we going to get some energy into the southern arm on this run so as to pump up the azores high?

Agreed. A swing away from a rampant +NAO today ..

We certainly can't say the Atlantic is progged to be sluggish! The sheer speed of those lows hurtling across the pond is astounding, Hope Blue is correct in his musings about a bit of slackening off later on..

EC putting massive energy into the Atlantic this evening.

EC more amplified than GFS at 168-

Haha mate Frosty ground is 2 miles from you and hes 300m !! Some very hilly parts around Oldham- top of ripponden road 345m anyway, i digress, big few slides coming up on EC, 168 onwards is key for me..

GEM also sniffing around an easterly at day 10 this evening..

And we end the run with a 1045mb scandy high- Nice to see but i think most of us realize its going to to take a bit of luck getting there- atmosphere seems pre disposed to NH blocking if we can get the Atlantic to play ball, it did on 12z and the end result is what i want to see in the run up to christmas..

UKMO/GFS very similar at 144- both look pretty ugly but its 168 onwards that holds interest for me .

I'm still hopeful of some kind of blocking high to our NE longer term, a LOT depends on some kind of 'break' in the jet- alluded to by your good self above. Its that or something along the lines of Exeters latest musings, and i really don't fancy ANY of that!

Gawd that is a horrendous update.. Sounds like 2014, gulp. I'm not buying it though, i think it will change for the better.

Thanks John Phew, i was feeling a bit lonely with my optimism !!