northwestsnow

Have to say looking at 18z the next week or so looks pretty dire. Which backs up Exeters musings and kind of places our anticipation that we might be in a much better place in a week or so time in serious jeopardy..

And i have no idea what to think-post mobilty i'm still leaning to a sceuro but one that will eventually sink,although i confess that is being driven by the last couple of METO updates,i too would sacrifice Dec for a cold Jan or Feb but i really don't fancy a washout christmas , even in my mid 40s its still a special time of the year, more so to see the younger ones following in our footsteps. For me wind and rain takes something away from christmas, i'm hoping Exeters long ranger will change over the coming week or so,,

Me too!! Although bitter experience will increase conerns.. I thoughts tonights EC mean looked decent at day 9 but a bit meh by 10.. I suspect we are going to need the brakes to be applied in the Atlantic to allow for a crucial Azores high movement west of the UK, we dont want any emerging Azores high ridging to our East, that would be a symptom of the jet being too fast/strong ..

Vortex looks pretty split by day 9 on the EC mean -

Is that a 1060mb Siberian high on EC tonight?? If so that is absolutely huge !! By day 10 i predict Atlantic energy to start splitting..

Late jan???? Can i have saturdays lottery numbers please.

Sounds like Exeter are expecting worse case scenario for coldies .. their outlook is rapidly deteriating ..now any high is expected to sink by Mid Dec!! Sounds like coupling to me..

They are now going for a sinker.. Lets hope they are very wrong!!

These updates are getting worse!! Yesterday unsettled later in the period.. today saying 2nd half of December!!

Not sure ... looking forward to hearing from GP hopefully over the next day or two ..

Think Ians being a bit mischievious!! Fairly happy with EC this morning..certainly very different to GFS.

UKMO/GFS very different profile at the NNE at 144 this morning- GFS 144 UKMO 144-

Looking at GEFS i would suggest 4/5th December is a critical juncture, a lot of scatter as perhaps one could expect Fingers crossed we see some upgrades tomorrow !!

Certainly nice to have JMA on board with the strat warming, OK its probably not enough to be classed as en event but i wouldn't have thought it will do us any harm..

Oh, thanks Matt i guessed it was a 'new' one. Thanks for clarifying

Quite a substantial warming on JMA !! Fergies tweet on the other thread a bit meh, clearly the pros not expecting anything until 'possibly' late winter, feb perhaps?

18z is along the lines of what i was hoping for and hence my disappointment of the meto update which is suggestive of a mid lat block sinking longer term.. Haven't seen any post from the eps etc so no idea how much traction 18 z potentially has..

Looks very good at 225 , if we could somehow rid ourselves of that low north of Iceland then the emerging azores high could link with the arctic high and bingo!! Probably won't happen but ..

GFS also sniffing out the change at around 192 hours tonight and also has the Arctic high for the 1st time.

EC mean looks a bit better this evening, solid signal that HP is going to be ridging in to the UK by day 10 onwards and a relaxation of the Atlantic..

Ec not letting this Arctic high go- now at 192 and starting to have an impact perhaps.. temps dropping as the high ridges over the UK at 216..

Because we're a fickle bunch Blue, you know that! On a serious note, i suspect a combination of the 12z GFS (yes i know.one op), with the wording on Exeters latest update in tandom is suggestive of a sinking High with the jet over the top.. I was hoping the longer term would be suggestive of something more favourable and Exeters musings are now aligned to the BBC monthly... Of course we have the last Glosea update suggesting the complete opposite to what Exeter are now forecasting, so maybe Glosea has flipped? From my perspective it probably creates a lot more doubt longer term, i accept we are on the cusp of a westerly pattern, my hopes/expectations were that we would see some high latitude blocking thereafter, of course we still could..

GFS setting up the anticyclone by day 10 but the profile to the N/NW looks horrid, and added to the newly updated METO outlook i'm left wondering if we are going to end up with a euro/securo high s(t)inker?

That updated update is now beginning to sound like a euro high, at best sceuro high sinkng into Europe!!

Oh that is a real kick in the goolies.