northwestsnow

Yes, i'm afraid momentum is gathering now for a switch next week, TBF Exter have said early Dec so looking at EC its not until day 7 the Atlantic comes in - iv'e read the update again and it references a short lived Atlantic phase and then go onto mention a return to settled weather mid December.That said, thats a couple of weeks and i'm not sure i'd class that as brief!! So, yes, i think i agree they will now put a little more confidence in the likelihood of an unsettled phase, attention can then be turned perhaps to Strat/MJO etc to see if we can decipher if the telecommunications are going to be 'on side' .. So, i'm now 70/30 with the Atlantic coming in,but i'm going to enjoy the next 7 days or so of cold dry November weather and dig out my hiking boots..

Last one for me but just to muddy the waters even further GEM looks different again but is a big improvement on its previous outputs and we see the colder air from the north making inroads into the UK- Day 9 so very much FI..

For comparison- UKMO 144 GFS 144- chalk and cheese..

Well ukmo looks decent to me again this morning.. cant post charts as at work..

1st out of the blocks this morning is ICON and i'm pleased to say it keeps the UK dry and cold out to 180.. So thats Block 1-0 Atlantic so far..

Well i was feeling deflated last night... happier this morning and now back to feeling deflated again.. At least its mid Nov so winters not even started yet. Think we may well have to suffer some Atlantic weather for a wee while... As long as its not weeks on end i can live with that.

Its sooooo frustrating!! That chart has northern blocking,PV sent over to siberia and then the Atlantic fires into life. Horrible luck for coldies.

Judging by Matt Hugos tweet the EC det was a mild outlier. Who knows what tomorrow will bring..

Oh well.. no continuity still.. Even EC looks mainly cold and dry this coming weekend so no idea what the beeb are going on about with southerly...

Well it looks OK at 168 but i can see heights to the south being a pain on this run..

Thanks Gavin, still much to be resolved!

Yes, some models are being very progressive with the Atlantic ...^^

Most likely related to high pressure wanting to ridge into Europe..

GFS big improvement and steady as she goes UKMO.. Wonder if we might see GEFS begin to smell the coffee, sorry, trough disruption..?

Me neither, but one thing today shows is how the precip can hit us from an easterly..a few degrees colder and it would have been bingo! Lets hope for more easterlies next month.

UKMO looks a corcker!!

Thanks for sharing your valued thoughts Steve I'm not going to dispute anything you have written, of course as you might well know, I hope your thoughts come to fruition!!

The reality of course is that we have little consensus at this juncture. Its great to watch, , although if i'm honest i'm expecting the Atlantic to break through and an unsettled pattern setting up, for how long, i don't know.. At the very least, after today, we have a generally cold pattern, with temps probably below average for a good 6 to 7 days so i'm happy with that.

EC looks dry and cold right through to day 10 this morning, bar some unsettled stuff today.. ens will perhaps reveal a bit more, i'd still be expecting quite a lot of variations but hopefully the signal to keep the Atlantic at bay has some support..

Excellent EC!!

EC 168 a ridge from the azores...

Looking at GEFS postage stamps there is everything but the kitchen sink in there, zonal westerlies, uk highs, polar north westerlies and cold north easterlies..a real mixture.. Atlantic westerlies do appear to be favourite but nothing set in stone thats for sure!

GFS 00z looks a fair bit better this morning!! Sheesh i was feeling despondent last night but i think there is grounds for optimism looking at GFS 00z out to 180..

UKMO 144- Bit above my pay grade to truthfully decipher where we would go from here but the 144 chart looks pretty chilly for the UK..

Me too..