northwestsnow

Excellent ensembles !!! Det quite a significant outlier!! Game on.

18Z finds a decent match to the Exeter update earlier- brief Atlantic influence before the azores high ridges north to settle things down..

I was thinking exactly the same thing Blue!! The low to our SW will be a bigger player than i for one anticipated - I know its been said a thousand times but this really is a tricky evolution for the computer models.

Not the best EC det it has to be said, however, its one op, GEFS look great, eps looked good this morning and Exeter remain wedded to a cold dry outlook. That could all change in the morning, of course. Confidence in an extended dry cold outlook still at 75% from where i am sat. Now for the darts,have a nice evening all..

The voice of reason!!

Good grief talk about over reactions..!! You would be forgiven for thinking we had a ripper of a Greenland PV and raging +NAO.

Dews might be more revealing Steve..

Fascinating model watching... not sure which has more of my attention ..Brexit or 12z EC!!

Para looks great Blue..

So, GFS was indeed leading all up the garden path with its nirvana charts- i mentioned that was likely only yesterday. Now GFS has realized it was wrong its doing what it has a habit of doing, ie, going the other extreme. I'm not fussed about it, infact,UKMO 144 is more 'agreeable' for me, better profile in the Greenland region than GFS , so while one can NEVER rule out any model, my cent is on GFS being hopelessly wrong..

each ti their own

Yes, while the GFS seems hell bent on providing us with what most want to see i'm far from convinced and would suggest the block will sink somewhat but stay at a high enough latitude to deflect the Atlantic lows to our south and into Southern Europe, i can see this block meandering from the Scandy/iceland/northern UK and possibly back to where it started (scandy) if i were to take a stab..

Agreed.. Exeter evidently happy to go with the block dominating for the forseeable- plenty of cold dry weather to come , as iv'e said, whats there not to like? Cold/foggy/frosty weather in December sounds sooooooo much better than Atlantic wind and rain!!

GEFS 6z are tremendous!! And to add to that METO update now suggesting cold dominating out to mid Dec with only a small chance of an Atlantic attack which will likely be short lived even if it does happen. Sounds very much like this huge blocking high is going to be the dominant player for quite a while!!

A lot of references to fog and frost!! Sounds superb to me !!

Thats a ruddy good set of ens.. Op looks to be one of,if not the mildest member longer term and even thats chilly.

Yes good to see you posting karlos we would like to see the milder members drop out longer term but as it stands,there is little to be unhappy about in the hunt for cold.

Hello Mate good to see you back for another winter.. I agree with your post BTW..

Only my opinion but 6z looks wonderful-PV displaced - plenty of cold dry weather to usher in late Nov early Dec..

EC mean looks good..

Much derided EC snow depth charts do show a dusting across parts of the country next week - OK OK i know some dislike them and i'm sure with good reason, but with dps hovering around zero and 850s around -7/-8 in the SE corner i reckon some maybe more elevated spots might see a dusting..

^^ Thanks Blue, the winds from the east looks nailed on, i'm sure some the of the guys in the SE corner (esp with some altitude) will be wondering if we can squeeze a dusting next week- 850s of -7 on EC ... not sure on dp'S though? Thereafter is entropy, to coin the phrase. Personally i'm not expecting a GFS 00z scenario , my hope is the block , despite apparently sinking back longer term, can do enough to deflect the Atlantic to our South. edit i think the far SE corner scrapes a 850 of -8 through wednesday..

OK so no GFS outcome on EC but it looks cold and dry generally with a SE flow into the UK next weekend. Not really what Sarah Lucas was forecasting last night- (yes i saw it too).. Essentially by day and esp the night temps would be dropping like a stone, think late Nov,short days etc.. I'm happy with it, but i'm aware this is complicated and changes could yet happen..

Surely the energy has to head SE into europe after day 8 on EC???

weather history//