northwestsnow

Gawd I hope UKMO 144 comes off, i can't see an easy way to mild from there!! Still a little to far out to be confident ...

I would LOVE to see day 7 blue.. UKMO really puts the cat among the pidgeons tonight!!

UKMO is a 144

That low is a real pain in the wotsits!!!

Have you compared ukmo / ec/gfs 144 Nick? I'd suggest ukmo looks better..

Think altitude will be playing a part next week mate..

Morning steve, yes slayer was on the money in the 96-144 timeframe when the others wanted to sink the high back into Europe.(GEM aside). As i posted above, it looks a ruddy good 144 chart this morning.. All to play for, although i'm not as confident as your goodself about the reload from the NE part!!

UKMO 144 again looks the pick of the big 3 for me..

Well i'm still on the fence,last couple of EC dets have improved from a coldies POV but there is so much energy distribution for the models to handle post 144 that making a guess how it will all unfold for the UK is nion impossible imho. One thing looks fairly certain and that is central/east Europe looks set to go cold.. Think we will see a number of scenarios play out over the coming 48 hours..

Yyup- we need some energy to go under us, its a fine line we are treading moving forward, the high drifts too far west and we 're in trouble..

100% agreed!! Think we have pretty decent agreement that the scandy high will retrogress and become cut off, the low to the SW is indeed the elephant in the room.18Z turned out good with a cold north westerly but i'm far from convinced with that, far too many variables at play.. I'm happy UKMO called the 120-144 period correctly but the tricky part will follow,the pattern could easily become a horrid West based -NAO, the natural progression would be a Euro high and big +NAO setting up..equally something along the lines of 18z could materialize longer term... I'm still 50/50 - FG might copa dusting wed at 300m ..

No.. that low is a real pain and wont allow for retrogression ..

18z looks mainly cold dry.. Lets hope this trend continues in the morning..

Good question rgds to Glosea... Im left wondering with the pressure charts if the model is seeing a strat event...

If the high res det was wrong at 120 i'll not concern myself with eps at day 12... Ps i wish i was as clever as GP!!

Seems to be a lot of jumping off a cliff type posts about EC eps/means etc this evening... UKMO is leading the way here and it barely gets a look in. Not a criticism guys .. its great debate and all..

Who cares? The high res det was hopelessly wrong at 144 this morning...

The slayer is king again !! Yup the other models have moved to the ukmo this evening. Message ends.. Ps i really wouldnt be worrying about EC 240 charts it had it wrong at 120!!

At this stage i cant see flooding being an issue,anywhere. Although in fairness im more interested in how next weekend onwards unfolds..

Yes thats understandable..as ever time will tell..

12Zs will sure make interesting viewing Blue! I'm only speculating here but would the 30% be weighted towards the UKMET model? Bearing in mind UKMO/GEM were pretty similar at 144 this morning and GEM did indeed go onto produce a very good run .. Either way i'm sure the next 5 hours will be much more revealing, i'm sitting on the fence although my 75% confidence in an 'agreeable' outcome for coldies is now at 50%...

Tthe differences between EC and UKMO are really quite stark this morning. The EC has the scandy high sagging at 144, UKMO does not, it has a cut off high around Iceland. Huge ramifications moving forward from there. In truth who knows which model is correct.

Interestingly GEM and UKMO are very closely aligned at 144 and GEM goes onto produce a decent run with the PV well and truly dispatched. Fingers crossed for UKMO/GEM style evolution!!

Yes i meant at around 120-144 Don't like GFS, don't like EC, but ukmo looks good at 144. Add to that EC , while not nice longer term is different to previous runs.. But in essence, i agree, the low to our south is a real pain.

Yup, in agreement with the others, a total mess this morning. No cross model agreement ..more runs needed..