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northwestsnow

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Everything posted by northwestsnow

  1. northwestsnow
    Lets hope this is maintained and strengthened over the coming 2 or 3 days Blue
  2. northwestsnow
    Very progessive EC tonight..not sure but looks like its building a strong PV at day 9..
  3. northwestsnow
    Nice spot ... Yes control is much better
  4. northwestsnow
    GFS para looks more interesting into FI with a UK high building and cold dry weather returning ala Meto update.. edit although it does sink.
  5. northwestsnow
    Looks a good evolution Steve , fingers crossed ..
  6. northwestsnow
    Good news that Exeter see any Atlantic attack being quite brief. Must admit, i can't see it looking at the models but im always happy when Exeter are on board cold wise..
  7. northwestsnow
    Well i made my comments after viewing GFS/UKMO and reading that grim BBC update but EC has offered a bit of hope for coldies, as has Blues musings. So, back to clear as mud again lol.
  8. northwestsnow
    EC op is actually a lovely suprise Blue...
  9. northwestsnow
    Yes im with you steve.. the background signals look reasonable to me too... Lets hope any unsettled phase is short lived..
  10. northwestsnow
    Yes .. TBH i was going to ask which model the bbc use for their guidance. All that said they were very bullish about the Atlantic coming in late Nov and thats exactly what is going to happen, even when Exeter were saying small chance.
  11. northwestsnow
    I think we can safely say the Atlantic is coming looking at GFS/UKMO 00z runs... For those like myself wanting seasonal weather dont look at the updated BBC monthly outlook..generally mild and wet and by mid Dec they have , and i quote them directly, 'unusually high confidence of mild south westerlies from the sub tropics' !!! I cant think of anything worse in the run up to christmas so im hoping thats very wrong..
  12. northwestsnow
    Certainly some positive sounding posts from Stewart recently, that always sparks optimism into my mind.I for one will not mind a brief Atlantic visit if what follows on is cold
  13. northwestsnow
    Nothing is set in stone for sure.. But i think one has to balanced... im as bigger cold ramper as the next man but as it stands, unless there is a dramatic twist, the block is going to get blown away...look at ukmo ,gfs,ec.. its staring us in the face..
  14. northwestsnow
    Yes of course.. its still outside reliable but i really think we ought to be accepting the block isnt going to hold... As a coldie i am hoping it does.. but the evidence is becoming overwhelming that it will be blown away..
  15. northwestsnow
    EC blows the block away by day 8 its over the Ukraine..
  16. northwestsnow
    EC ever so slightly more amplified in the Atlantic at 72 than the other big 2..
  17. northwestsnow
    Yes, its obviously only November so i'm not concerned about Winter at this time, but we are looking at a spell of zonal weather , for how long, who knows..
  18. northwestsnow
    Yes me too mate, as i said, there is no monster Greenland /Canadian PV driving this uptick in the jet..
  19. northwestsnow
    Can't see many encouraging signs on GFS Fred... looks zonal all the way out to the end?(After day 6/7).
  20. northwestsnow
    GFS is going very unsettled mid term this evening- a conveyor belt of Atlantic lows with attendant heights across Europe.. Paradoxically there is no monster Greenland PV on show , maybe as Nick alluded to this morning, el nino responsible for the sudden coming to life of our nemesis? (The Atlantic)?..
  21. northwestsnow
    So, EC has the vast majority of energy going up and over whereas UKMO much more evenly distributed..
  22. northwestsnow
    Yes, but the Atlantic low tilted all wrong from what i can see, ie energy looks to be in the northern arm.. Enjoying model watching whilst hoping the block can hold on..
  23. northwestsnow
    Yes , thanks for that.. GEFS also cranking up the jet,although seemingly with more energy going south, looks to me like any block is going to have its hand full moving forward!! Shame that really as most of the NH looks in good shape for a coldie!!
  24. northwestsnow
    EPs suggestive of a strong jet coming out of North America Nick?
  25. northwestsnow
    Hoping Steve is still keeping the faith -Looking at the EC mean you get the feeling 168 is the tipping point so its probably still not at a range for the ens to handle the critical energy distribution wholly accurately ..
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