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northwestsnow

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Everything posted by northwestsnow

  1. northwestsnow
    Well i'm going to keep the optimistic (tin) hat on this morning.. UKMO pick of the 3 at 144 IMHO, i'm not convinced we will see a euro high longer term, infact, i'm thinking a slow process of Atlantic amplification as the jet drops into Europe..
  2. northwestsnow
    Hurrrah!! UKMO/EC show a bit of Atlantic amplification! GEM similar to UKMO and goes onto produce a very nice day 10.. Hoping for some momentum towards a pattern change .
  3. northwestsnow
    Anyway we digress... 18z will be interesting as will Ec 46..
  4. northwestsnow
    Quite, i'm not despondent at all, although i'm quite sure i'm not high enough to be seeing any snow for a while,but i have a sneaky feeling Blue may be onto something with the scandy heights longer term,personally i suspect it will stem from Atlantic height rises eventually scandy..
  5. northwestsnow
    Tomorrows another day.. Lets see if we can drag in some cold zonality longer term..
  6. northwestsnow
    Im not commenting on the 12z runs, i genuinely dont think there is enough consistency as it stands.
  7. northwestsnow
    Sorry Don i should have qualified that with the caveat if you live in the north with altitude.
  8. northwestsnow
    Upgrade!!
  9. northwestsnow
    Yes one thing we have seen little evidence of so far is an appetite for a strong Greenland PV.
  10. northwestsnow
    Thats good news Blue..
  11. northwestsnow
    TBH my interest at the moment is focused on the strtat- GFS00z is interesting in the strat,there are small warmings way to our NNE, but then by the end of the run the core cold in the strat has completely shifted towards NW Russia..
  12. northwestsnow
    Those EC clusters are great ..
  13. northwestsnow
    Think a moaning thread might be needed soon.. The 00z runs are indeed flat zonal dross.
  14. northwestsnow
    The sheer ferocity of the jet has actually taken me by suprise.. The speed at which these lows are hurtling across the Atlantic is leaving little chance of amplification in the Atlantic sector. Whats bothering me is the potential colder drier phase is beginning to look like its on shaky ground too!
  15. northwestsnow
    GFS 00z makes a few attempts at az high ridging north but we can't seem to shut the procession of Atlantic lows off, ukmo and gfs look quite similar at 144.
  16. northwestsnow
    Can't help but notice that blocking high over the Pole on that chart .
  17. northwestsnow
    Well you could be right Feb, of course. Day 10 does see some slackening of pressure to our North /North east so even if this ridge doesn't make it i suspect we will eventually see some amplification in the Atlantic.My theory would be the trough to our NE would very much assist in shutting of the euro heights. As you say , its day 10 and probably won't look exactly like that .. I'm still firmly in a pessimistic frame of mind moving forward but for me EC is an improvement on this morning..
  18. northwestsnow
    EC is better for me this evening- Day 10 and could we see the azores high move into the vaccum to our north?
  19. northwestsnow
    Im not comparing every run matey.. the trends over the last 48hours are consistent with a westerly Atlantic pattern, and this ties in with Exeters musings..
  20. northwestsnow
    The Atlantic appears to be easing through the gears Blue.. Im a bit puzzled as to the driver though.. no monster PV , no massive temp gradient ES, zonal winds hardly through the roof?
  21. northwestsnow
    12z mirrors Exeters musings, mild wet and windy followed by a quieter interlude then back to Atlantic dross ..
  22. northwestsnow
    I went to bed early so missed all that but i feel like yourself there has been little or no sniping today whatsoever.
  23. northwestsnow
    Depressing reading that update. Wind and rain for christmas just for a change then.
  24. northwestsnow
    Like i said, NWP going from bad to worse if its dry or cold you want. ..
  25. northwestsnow
    Lets just say i'm glad its only the 27th of November Mucka because the NWP seems to be going from bad to worse at the moment. Ive been around long enough to know things can change quite quickly but at this juncture i'm getting a feeling of deja vu in so far as Decembers pattern is concerned. On a slightly more positive note BBC RAW data which i think is derived from mogreps is going for settling down from the 5th of Dec .
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