northwestsnow

Agreed , hence aspiration. We know from the last 20 years of chasing once the TPV sets up to our NW it's the mother of all slogs to overturn. From an optimistic POV at least we have something to hold onto ...

Well it's all in on EC cluster 1 .. As the biggest cluster we've got to hope this particular evolution grows in strength over the next few days ... Obviously we are talking +10 day timeframe so it's aspiration at this time.

What a flippin shame Terrible 00z output . EC is ghastly

Oh god lol yes I meant 10 days

I think a lot of us are wondering how we go cold again and past experience does suggest it will take a while for that horrid profile to the NW ( yet AGAIN) to disperse.. We can confidently write off the next 100 days which takes us into Feb so a whole month of Feb is up for grabs but we need to see something in the extended timeframe ( Eps GEFS) to have even a hope of a change I feel bad because although we've had around 9 days of snow-covered terrain in Dec/ Jan its been very slim pickings and even moreso for lots of folk still waiting their first flake ..

I was really hopeful after reading Tamara's musings but alas there is precious little as it stands for us to hang our hats on Fingers crossed we see improvements in the next few days, I personally thought EC det had some potential this morning ..

Potential emerging at the end of EC 00z

EC day 9 is horrendous.. Big TPV sat exactly where we coldies dont want ... On a more positive note there is huge blocking over NW Russia ..

Ec 46 - MJO forecast - I don't think the MJO has done much to help at all..

EC 46 looks very dry. The model is not really seeing retrogression at this point... Sad thing about tonight's EC 46 is it looks very sparce on snow which would mean some people remaining snowless out to late Feb , hopefully not ...

GFS still interested ! GEM saying " maybe "...

GFS like a dog with a bone here..

Well im going to have a look at EC 46 regardless.. The model was seeing HP in our locale now we need to see if it can nudge the high north...

MJO might be really important, no COD please..

It's just dawned on me ... If EC goes down the GFS/GEM route by day 10 I'm going to have to strat myself in,again..

Well it would be lovely if a scandy high option suddenly started upgrading during the next few days Mike. Watching brief here I've spent half my life chasing this cold spell since late Dec,exhausting !!

I have conversations with an uncle in Poland who ironically enough has interest in climate .. His opinion for Poland is a noticeable shift with Winter coming later so to speak - he does reside near to the SW German border and the difference West to East in Poland is quite considerable ..( Those nearer Eastern frontier -Ukraine and Belarus would see generally colder conditions and its quite a big country) . I'm teaching you to suck eggs I'm sure but when winter is coming later in central Europe it wont be good news for Western Europe ....

What an absolutely fabulous read this morning... I'm not posting much, I'd only moan and with age I've realised thats just an annoyance to others when all said and done !! A truly old school freezing week up here ,temps haven't really got much above freezing since Sunday night and still snow cover ,one last cold shot in Feb would be grand ...

Nice to see quite a few get a covering .. Perhaps the chance for the SW of the region to orrow evening.. Fingers crossed.

I'll drop by to read how things are Shaping up in the background .. Fingers crossed we get an Easterly,preferably before mid Feb as my interest wanes thereafter although I understand that isn't the case for everybody. I semi retire in July so will only be working 3 months a year thereonin ,I'm really hoping we get a nice summer and Dickens December surely thats not too much to ask !!

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel .. We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now .. As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !! EC day 9 says it might be a while !

We need to start seeing improvements in FI soon - rest of Jan looks a complete write off. Mustn't grumble we have a covering here ,first one since early Dec mind.

Trust me it's better than wind and rain I think there is just about enough going on to hope for change into Feb...

Such a shame the south look like JUST missing out Hopefully some further North into Cumbria NI and Scotland hit the jackpot over the next 48 hours .. NWP looks awful after Thurs, we need the PV to go and get a life away from Greenland.