Chris1986

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Dr Choen's blog With Regards to the SSW and it's effects.

Well according to the pros the tst coupling is already underway, the majour ssw should last until march and we are just starting to see the culmination of events At the end of the runs. I would expect for the theme to continue over the coming weeks. Hopefully

. North westerly....?? I'm confused

I was beaten to posting The link darn haha. They seem to have alot of cool model data there only do 2 runs though 00 & 12 z. The verification stats are not too bad I (also on site) I just like the variety of data presented.

Dunno if this helps, is from 12z experimental though.

Not sure if anyone has seen this, really interesting stuff, experimental models From NOAA, this has literally everything and then some. http://fim.noaa.gov/

A touch early but not miles away

Looking good on radar at the moment, slightly more progressive in reality at the moment on the radar but hopefully we should see the front stalling soon, question of where is still out there at the moment. Still looking good for most. Don't you just love now casting

The front should stall as it passes across the uk which will slow it down significantly. Just a guess but I'll definitely be watching the radar today and hopefully later the window

Nice stall shown on 06z

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 27.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 40 mph (65 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and west with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with another extratropical cyclone by Sunday. Courtesy of National Hurricane Centre , interesting all the same

Similar theme to the gfs there in regard to the progression.

Ok dead Alex, it's just easier to refer to and sounds marginally better than the depression to the West of us.... Anyway, this depicts the band quite well from dead, gone, most definitely over Alex.

What's that coming over the hill... Is it an easterly pure FI but still

Also seems to tie in with alex initial forcasts / track / speed / absorbson in the early hours of the run.

Gfs is looking interesting on the first 60h!!

Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h). At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). Courtesy of National Hurricane Centre

Fingers crossed Also should see the GFS throwing some runs out soon too, everyone's a winner!

Next Alex update should be out in 20 min, will post here when released

I probably do need to let it go but it's interesting so all in good time haha, supposedly he is weakening over the azores but will still maintain hurricane force winds - cut and paste from hurricane advisory forcast :- Most of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western semicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely beginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures, and with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to an extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12 hours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after transition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic. Either way I like a spanner for now, just makes it even more interesting

I'm not seeing how it would tie up with another low if its still at hurricane force, initial maps showed a downgrade to a storm but currently Alex is still shown at hurricane force when reaching greenland.

Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?

Well I'm not sure but I'm guessing they are running these models full time from the livestream data what with being the national hurricane center tasked with preventing loss of life In massive numbers I think they have the budget

If that comes off it would be the first post tropical cyclone to hit greenland in history.