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Chris1986

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Everything posted by Chris1986

  1. Chris1986
    Another update from the hurricane center. I don't think any of the models Could possibly have a handle on this.
  2. Chris1986
    Yes ex tropical, either way hurricane force, I'd prefer to trust the national hurricane center path and strength predections. Gfs doesn't seem to match the noaa for location speed and strength. I think this could be an interesting development all the same.
  3. Chris1986
    Gfs has the hurricane modelled incorrectly in strength and path It would appear.
  4. Chris1986
    Alex upgraded to hurricane on the final approach to greenland. Could be one for the history books.
  5. Chris1986
    Not sure if this is right, but after a bit of research I think this would be the first hurricane / trop s to hit Greenland since records began if track is correct .... This is anyone's guess For conquencies
  6. Chris1986
    Well as it's only ever happend once before in Jan so what can the models compare it against haha. I might have a look at some historical data from that winter. Either way it's going to be interesting.
  7. Chris1986
    One thing I know is nothing is set in stone. The heaviest snowfall in 2010 in the SE was due to a filiment of vorticity over France that kept feeding showers down the Thames none of which was predicted. The real development in the models will come over the next few days and hopefully the UK can hang onto the cold until a (hopefull & likely) SSW is in effect around the end of Jan / start Feb.
  8. Chris1986
    I'm am confident around the end on Jan start of Feb We will start to see the SSW in full swing and 850 hpa model data reflecting as such. We saw a glimpse in the 06 run of the 850 temps and jet stream stall. I'm no expert and no where near as clever as you guys but I managed to guess every snow event In 2010 so luck is on my side
  9. Chris1986
    Are you allowed to post here? I can't see 1 hpa charts
  10. Chris1986
    Thanks chionomaniac, I will keep a look out for the developments. It's definitely getting intresting
  11. Chris1986
    Gents, Is there any way to predict the force of the wave break from the stratosphere into the troposphere? For example if they will be strong enough to shut the jet stream down temporarily or what effect it will have.
  12. Chris1986
    Oh haha, clever clogs I was looking for the 10 hpa wind yesterday, was driving me mad. I'll keep a look out for your twitter. Thanks!!
  13. Chris1986
    Nice what site did you use for that? I'm new to this.
  14. Chris1986
    Ozone charts also support the warming development. Last 5 gfs runs show the same trends.
  15. Chris1986
    Looking at the latest gfs polar vortex is definately being displaced. Ozone signals are strong to swing the heating further north and west.
  16. Chris1986
    I expect the warming trend to continue. Past 4 GFS runs shows an upgrade.
  17. Chris1986
    18z gfs still intent on stratospheric warming and displacement of the polar vortex. If the drop in temps in the US is anything to go by I should expect the 500 & 850 temps to plummet over the uk end of Jan onwards. Just a guess.
  18. Chris1986
    I've got a nasty feeling this is why the various models have been so different going out to FI but I am certainly no expert. I can't find any strat charts for anything apart from GFS can anyone point me in the right direction? I'd like to do a comparison.
  19. Chris1986
    Last few runs seem to be progressively bringing this in. I will watch the development over the next few weeks
  20. Chris1986
    The next 4 weeks of model watching will be interesting, I look forward to see if the gfs continues to develop this feature!!
  21. Chris1986
    End of Jan could be interesting.
  22. Chris1986
    The stratosphere has a direct impact on the troposphere although we don't fully understand all of the details. Stratospheric warming should cool the troposphere... somehow... I'm not clever enough to know :$
  23. Chris1986
    Quite a change in 48h.
  24. Chris1986
    Hi I'm new here, I remember 2010 the long cold spell and lots of snow, which I believe was down to a sudden stratospheric warming which to my untrained eye it would appear will be happening over the next week or so. The snow in 2010 was caused by a filament of vorticity sitting over France generating shower trains into the SE. Wait and see I suppose I however believe this cold snap will be more prolonged than first thought. Models especially don't handle the effects of laying snow well with regards to boundary layer temps.
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