wishingforsnow

So basically, a SSW occurring in a mild weather pattern has more chance of producing cold conditions?

Still we could be seeing the start of something more significant cold wise Baby steps To be fair it would be a mighty brave call of them to call it a direct Easterly at this early stage anyway

Who knows? Maybe the high res/advanced models used by the Met and Beeb are showing something more promising that we don't know yet

Hopefully that comes off and delivers something promising!

One to watch definitely

Ok so the main hurdle seems to be the Azores High, hopefully further runs will downgrade that particular feature, then its game on for cold but promising output nonetheless Still a lot of water under the bridge to go but the possible presence or eradication of that Azores High will make a huge difference to whether we end up with mild and dry or cold and dry...

Hmmm interesting model developments, very interesting....

A very knife edge run there

The abundance of sunny cold days is already a step in the right direction but to get the snow in later on would be a very welcome bonus. ECM ensembles start off terrible again but improve towards the end of the run (28th) with the high pressure block so still something hopeful to pick out from them

Yeah good point the IPhone weather app is horrendous at times, flip flopping like a fish! I'll be definitely focusing on model trends

Superb models! Interestingly, I don't know if this means anything but my weather app shows on Wednesday day/night temperature slowly decreasing again (from 12 degrees and 9 at night on Saturday to 8 degrees during the day and 4 at night on Wednesday) following a brief spike in temperatures in low double figures and rainy days from the weekend to Tuesday. Wonder if that correlates to a drop in temperature after a mild blip as has been predicted by the models?

Taking into account the models' tendency to be 'progressive' I think that for one thing, the Bartlett high on the ECM was an exaggeration in the same way that those rogue GFS runs showing the Atlantic breakdown of the cold spell in the midst of Hurricane Alex and return of the Euroslug for today were a few days ago. So perhaps its overdoing the impact of the 'mild blip' in between blocks. But at the end of both tonights ECM and GFS runs there is potential and some tasty outcomes for cold showing, as in those GFS charts above. I still feel like something big is about to happen either at the turn of the month or further into February. It may be a cold settled block, it may be snowmageddeon or even just a period of stagnant, drier than average even if mild weather would make a difference to the crud we had to endure at the beginning of Winter.

BBC monthly outlook was probably put together before these recent model trends came out and if there are further significant developments in the models this coming week it will change next week. The same monthly outlook predicted a mild wet January throughout and look what we just got? Even if it wasn't a notable cold spell its more seasonable than anything in their initial monthly predictions which are vague and to be taken with a pinch of salt after the first week. Tonight's ECM and GFS start terrible initially but they do improve later in the run. The question is still up in the air whether the 'block' forming will provide mild or cold settled weather, and as ever, 'more runs needed'

Based on a few runs showing a mild block vs runs showing a cold block I think it's a brave call to say that right now the evolution is solely mild for next month. Also there is the higher probability of the SSW next month to take into account on top of everything.

Hmmm its not great initially but the main thing is there is still High Pressure building north of the UK showing on this latter stages of the run, which could mean an increased chance of dry weather even if its not cold... Yet Hopefully its just a rogue run and not the beginning of another cold v mild 'model standoff'. Last week and a half was exhausting enough and the only better thing is either way the outlook doesn't look overly wet.

Not pretty yet, but as is famously said 'more runs needed'

'Dry' is what pleases me too, and in fact most of the UK especially Cumbrians - the last thing we need right now is more prolonged heavy rain. Also it will be nice to not have to turn on the light at 1pm as its dark and chucking it down outside every single day. Then, comes the prospect of getting a more sustained, prolonged cold over the UK which, should we be lucky enough that the best outcome shown by the models come off would provide ample chilly temperatures and a UK wide snow event. I feel that like Summer 2013 with hot weather, we are well overdue a good winter and now our luck regarding recent miserable mild/wet (2013/14 and 2015/16 part 1 only hopefully) or just uninteresting and occasionally cold but not enough for snow or lying snow for most places (2014/15) is about to change

To me it shows a fairly dry outlook but with a few tweaks if things develop in the right way, its another sign of a possible shot at further cold. The PV looks reinvigorated but that is a common precursor to a breakdown and a SSW. The question remains to be seen whether further UKMO runs will go further with building the high pressure over Greenland or Scandinavia and a weakened vortex. Then we should be in business. Meanwhile the High Pressure should also keep low pressure systems from bulldozing over the UK as they did for the previous 2 and a half months.

UKMO 12z now shows HP building north of the UK towards Scandinavia

I split my time between Bristol and the South East, but wouldn't heights to the Northwest be more beneficial for keeping Atlantic energy south of the UK as a whole?

At the moment it could go either way but the common growing signal is heights to the North. I agree though, I would slightly prefer a Northwest high to eventually materialise from this output too.

Or currently, the charts being shown are not far enough into the reliable time frame in order to call it a definite outcome of colder weather returning as we enter February (though Ian F did also mention in his tweets that colder than average likely in Mid February going by extended signals so its not like he's said 'it's not happening again guys, nothing to suggest further cold at all') We and the experts have to see if this pattern continues to manifest itself into the reliable timeframe and grow into something significant, and if there is reason enough by then to suggest the major cold will return earlier than expected (late Jan/early Feb) then the pros and the Met/Beeb forecasts will surely pick up on this in approx. a week's time or less. A lot of water to flow under the bridge from now until then though.

Plenty of cold potential in there

The vortex is looking battered and the models seem to be developing a Scandi/Greenland block towards the end of the month into February. For the sake of the bad luck the UK has had during the past 2 winters, I hope I'm right in thinking we are on the cusp of something bigger for cold for the first time in 3 years Also will be interesting to see Dr Cohen's blog re. SSW.