wishingforsnow

Could be another solution I suppose With ECM the North would get snow and the South freezing rain this weekend But ECM shows us cold at 240 with the mid Atlantic block reasserting itself. GFS at the same time frame has high pressure over us, drier but milder. Hopefully FI is showing the signs of the end of these stormy wet 4 months, in any case drier weather is welcome, cold or mild. Though Met have not specifically mentioned any cold or snow for the next week (yet) they have consistently gone for a more settled outcome present from the end of February into March.

The shortwave confusion I think. The other models are going for absorption of the shortwave whilst ECM is showing the other outcome at the moment.

That doesn't necessarily mean the ECM will be correct though

Welcome back Steve! Great encouragement

With model disagreement even now at a few days out I don't see how they can mention snow when the models aren't sure themselves

And this model division is further proving that small details can have big implications on the eventual outcome for the weather

So another model standoff! Hope the GFS and UKMO stick to their guns

Based on a forecast which may not be 100% accurate word for word...

Met Office have also said that more settled conditions could return at the end of the month into March. Is the end of the storm barrage finally in sight?

Funny how GFS has gone from being the villain to hero

So there is a good trend going for the phasing of the shortwaves at the moment, which is positive

Yes it would still be brave for them to forecast snow now when even less than a week out its not a clear cut outcome. Though snow to areas outside the usual suspects has been mentioned by forecasters sporadically over the past few days as a possibility only.

The main issue of confusion is the shortwave, I think ECM is just throwing around a different scenario which at the moment remains an outlier across the model output, and I hope it stays that way.

That's good to see Hopefully the ECM will start following this path.

It would really be 'sod's law' if the outcome ends up being that the low blew up into another powerful and destructive storm after all of this support for another potential cold spell with more snow chances. For once, we need things to go our way this winter and if the ECM outcome did come off in the end I'd simply resign myself to the fact that this winter the atmosphere and El Nino in one way or another, through rogue shortwaves, hurricanes and the PV simply didn't allow for settled wintry conditions to develop.

Wasn't there a shortwave on some of last month's run pre January cold spell that put doubt into whether it would happen or not? The devil is in the detail and model confusion at such a short range is making me think back to last month with forecasting of the cold spell and if it was to happen and then how long it would last for. And its again one model that refuses to play ball like the GFS last month. Remains to be seen what ECM will do with that shortwave. There is still loads of uncertainty but looks like more support for colder and wintry conditions from the GFS and UKMO. There is a trend for El Nino winters to end with cold so I'm hopeful that will still somehow come off with this current output.

Its starting to feel like the preceding period of some recent classic UK cold spells with the charts upgrading as the event came closer. Please let this trend continue....

Preceding the January cold spell there were some amazing charts about 10 days before the cold spell started but they gradually downgraded. However stella charts showing for an outcome 5 days or closer is more encouraging

Absolutely Nick. My assumptions are that an unexpected resurfacing of colder conditions could be on the cards due to a combination of Storm Imogen and the MJO - after it seemed the Strat warming was going to ruin everything hence the Met backtracking on the initial 'colder February'. And hopefully the model output will continue to stay in favour for the coldies, and we get lucky with the cold end to February back on the cards

Interesting summary, and with interest for those who are seeking a decent cold spell without the pesky Atlantic breaking through after a week this time.

Would be nice to see the Ensembles upgrade to colder following these recent model runs

Indeed and these charts are showing a cold outcome for a closer timeframe as opposed to 'Day 10' that never ends up verifying. A White Valentine's Day could be on the cards if this continues!

18z I was hoping it wouldn't backtrack or throw up an entirely different outcome

Encouraging model consistency for a cooling trend. Hoping it doesn't go pear shaped again. The fact that we managed a decent length period of seasonable weather in January is an encouragment imo.

I think that's one of the milder ensembles showing in that chart?