wishingforsnow

November - January in the UK was definitely not 'colder than normal'

In my opinion this Spring could be similar to 2006 as a whole actually.

For what it's worth, personally I'd rather be experiencing periods of slightly cooler than average unsettled weather during early Spring as opposed to during the Summer if it has to happen. For instance, most of April last year was dry, sunny and warmer than average for weeks but what followed was a dull wet and cold May and a cool June. And the awful summer of 2012 followed a mostly dry winter and warm dry spring (bar April). Also remember that models often overdo stormy and unsettled conditions so who knows how stormy it will actually be or not.

Well overall I don't think we'll be completely returning to the position we were in during Winter where we were just looking for any signs whatsoever of settled weather in the midst of all the rain. As it's Spring there is generally more chance of more frequent and longer spells of drier weather occurring as well as unsettled weather.

I recall one of Fergie's posts from a few weeks back stating that after a spell of anticyclonic weather things were likely to get more cyclonic again by the end of March though personally don't think it will be anything like what we experienced during Winter and hopefully not for as long either. Also I find extended forecasts are vague beyond 5-7 days and likewise models, and could change easily. I think what may happen is a week of particularly unsettled weather but it won't be as 'extended' as rain non stop for weeks on end like we saw in November, December and most of January. Met Office have also not ruled out settled spells inbetween the unsettled weather around Easter and early April. We are in a better position for longer or more frequent settled spells now that we have entered Spring although April looks like it will be slightly colder than average. A cold early Spring has been predicted on 3 month outlooks with encouragingly, warmer conditions towards the end into Summer

The second worst winter to 2013/14 sums it up for me. Just a worse extention of Autumm. When the significantly wet weather began last November after a fairly dry Autumn I was hoping it wouldn't be the start of months of the same conditions again. And I was unfortunately wrong. What redeemed 15/16 slightly is that in the South we didn't get as much heavy rain as we did in 13/14 and the 10 day settled spell in January as well as improvement from February in terms of more dry and usable weather; for me 13/14 was one long barrage of wind and heavy rain for days and weeks from early December until the middle of March! However in 15/16 when it wasn't raining most of the time there was still drizzle and dark clouds in the sky. In November-January this was particularly bad as the days were so short sometimes days felt like one long stormy evening as it was often so dark in the daytime due to a lack of sunlight that I had to turn the lights on in the house! November 2015 in particular had a distinct lack of sunny days. It was all extremely depressing sometimes as it felt like being in one long dark, wet windy tunnel and not knowing when you would reach the end and see some decent sunny weather again. Same thing in Winter 13/14. And of course, snowless for 3 years running round my parts. Hopefully next winter won't be as dire without the El Nino around.

After a bit of a break from this forum (model watching fatigue I have to admit!) my take on the SSW is that at least it could deliver a less extreme version of March 2013 and at best a replica of March-April 2013. At least the predominantely unsettled weather day in and day out has finally hit the road after nigh on 4 months plaguing the UK as it now looks more likely according to models that a much needed settled, chiller period could be on the cards which is just what we need to dry ourselves out after the second wettest winter on record The Atlantic and PV also does not have as much power as it did 1-3 months ago so any Atlantic wet weather should not last as long as it did in Winter perhaps the odd unsettled days but unlikely to be weeks of rain and wind again.

Again with dread of when a cold spell is going to end but the Atlantic return is still in FI. Who knows what could happen next week? Maybe with a weakening PV the heights would have a better chance of holding their own against the Atlantic. Also it looks like possibly any Atlantic return could be a shorter period than what happened from the 21st January until the middle of this week with about 2 and a half - 3 more weeks of milder than average, wetter conditions. If the MJO gets further into a favourable phase and the Met's prediction of colder more blocked conditions from the end of February into March come to fruition we may not hav to face another barrage of named storms for weeks again.

Superb runs tonight

Would that give us a potential shot at cold? About time the Azores high got shafted

The outcome of dreams for most of us *crosses fingers and hopes the ECM fails again*

Snow for my location too on Saturday according to my weather app but I'm not counting chickens by any means because for providing consistent predictions these apps are pretty much useless - they forecasted snow during the last cold spell which then flipped to sun then rain.

Great point here. No point getting hung up on individual model upgrades and downgrades when there is still uncertainty over the weekend and beyond. and NOAA isn't showing anything mild/milder than average

I would consider late Spring - early Summer to be May/June so in my head, Ian P's forecast could fall within that timeframe between March and May. April more like the peak of Spring.

Typical as when a cold spell is forecast for the UK the focus then shifts towards worry over when its going to end I hope things overall are starting to look drier for the future even if it warms up after this cold spell. The Jet Stream showing possible signs of finally weakening significantly in the long range output today is promising.

Ian F is suggesting it could start getting warmer than average late Spring, so Ian P's forecast for the first part of Spring could be right in some way

If Winter ends on a brief wintry high with possible snow before Spring kicks in I'll be happy. It won't make up for the horrible Atlantic weather pattern that dominated our weather throughout Winter but at least we may not have to face endless storms until the end.

I think that's down to us being at the end of Winter rather than the middle and the fact that most of the deep cold has gone to the US and China. But still more cold opportunities than what was showing last week and before coming up.

I think the summer of 1998 was down to the fact that the Nino got a second wind in spring - after all this was the biggest one to date. I found summer 98 to be similar to Summer 2015 - a lot of the time it was colder than average but dry (in my location) and August had some spells of decent weather. It may be remembered as a below average summer but definitely not on par with some of the autumnal horrors we had to experience in 2007/2012.

Agreed. Its about bleeding time the 'Atlantic oblivion' ceased so hopefully we are seeing the beginning of the light at the end of the dark wet and windy tunnel of Winter 15/16. The possibility of snow followed by high pressure is an outlook not to be sniffed at!

Stodge, that would be in line with Fergie's summary on what the high res models were showing for February

Aha well you never really know do you? Fingers crossed the output stays favourable for that period.

Good news for summer?