wishingforsnow

GFS once again the devils' advocate the other models have decent conditions for the South but changeable and more unsettled for the North. Onto the end of the month and it looks like the prospect of warmer, more settled weather across the country could be coming our way as with the chart @Summer Sun posted earlier - which would tie in with what the Beeb and Met are thinking at the moment too.

I don't see anything too bad from that forecast, yes there could be some low pressure systems at times but not frequently, and a lot of bright and dry weather on offer too even if it's not as warm for a while. Nothing too cold and unsettled on offer and BBC are also hinting at perhaps more settled and warmer weather at the end of the month to return For me the real warmth and longer periods of 20-25 degree + weather can wait until June. The model output apart from GFS at the moment would also suggest nothing too horrible is on the cards for the foreseeable and the rest of May, unlike May 2015 which was awful.

ECM has the best output at the moment as opposed to the GFS - the 'Northerly' and cooler/unsettled conditions happily looking like a weekend blip and nothing unsettled on the horizon for the end of the week as opposed to a long lasting pattern which is what I was wary of. GFS on the other hand is once again playing Dr Evil bringing in notably cooler and unsettled weather for mid May, although this outlook does not have much support. Hopefully ECM ends up being the form horse and it's good to see the Northerly reduced to nothing particularly wintry with only slightly cooler temperatures but closer to the seasonal average, and dry weather. Met Office encouragingly is still backing another above average period temperature wise at the end of the month too.

NOAA anomalies do suggest a N/W flow from 8-14 day period. Though it looks colder than it currently is during this warm spell - I agree that I don't think it's going to get as cold as models such as GFS are showing; as Winter has just taught us in our fruitless search for severe cold and snow - very frequently extreme conditions shown by the models do not come off exactly as what is shown. More importantly, it's looking quite dry in the South at least despite it getting cooler. I think that taking into account similar years weatherwise and the fact that nature has to rebalance itself, it wouldn't surprise me if we are entering a cluster of predominately dry months considering the overly wet Winter we have just endured, and this also started to shown in late Spring-early Summer 2014. Also the NOAA anomalies do change frequently so hopefully it will start to show in the coming weeks another switch back to warmer conditions for late May into June as the Met is hinting at in it's extended outlook. I feel like this would touch upon what Tamara said earlier about a rinse and repeat pattern throughout Spring is what we are seeing now - hopefully as we move into Summer we will see longer/more frequent periods of combined high pressure and warmer weather.

Met Office and models at T +240 are currently suggesting a warm up again after the Northerly so hopefully the Northerly doesn't last for more than a week or that it won't amount to much. 7 days is a timeframe where weather conditions are still open to change - I'm hoping it won't be as cold as what is currently being made out. BBC weather showing 17c for my location and 6 degrees at night for the supposed 'cool down' at the end of next week - only dropping by a few degrees so not that much of a difference although I suspect there will be more of a chill in the air.

ECM has a warmer outlook for end of next week than the GFS. Hopefully the conditions ECM shows come off which only show a drop to mid-high teens in the south rather than the drop of 10 degrees and freezing nights of the GFS.

I agree, as opposed to Springs that had lengthy heatwaves from March - May like 2007/2008/2011/2012 and by the time Summer came the weather became cool and wet. Also the Met Office currently hints at it becoming warmer and more settled once again at the end of the month into June

Tamara's analysis and the current model output is also supported by the current Met Office extended outlook which, whilst vague does illustrate a picture of a cooler, slightly below average shorter period of weather to follow this warm spell encouragingly ending with the return of more settled weather and the temperatures creeping up again as we enter June. So very much a rinse and repeat throughout May. It reminds me of May 2014 which had a warm/hot spell early in the month with a thundery breakdown, followed by a period of cooler and more unsettled weather but becoming settled and warmer again by June.

Well based on that forecast I'd say another North South split could be on the card regarding frequency of settled v unsettled weather so encouragingly it may turn out good for my location And Matt Hugo's latest updates becoming gradually more positive towards the upcoming summer as the season draws closer regarding high pressure being more influential and not to expect a season like 2012 is encouraging to see for Summer 2016 even if it may not provide spectacular UK wide 2003 style warmth.

Some great weather options on offer from the models at the moment - could be a wonderful end to Spring and start to Summer on the cards Hope this is a start of frequent periods of warm/hot settled and thundery weather as we enter the Summer season soon.

Is that really surprising considering November, December and January were far warmer than average? Especially December

I split my time between the South East and South West and although I felt we got the best out of an average to bad summer for the UK last year (where the frequency of settled and warmer weather was very much dependant on where you hang your hat) on many days I felt there was a nagging cool breeze even if it was mostly dry where I lived and that temperatures were very much suppressed - there were only a few occasional days recording 25 degrees or more and the temperature was mainly variable from 18-23 degrees in my location on top of it being breezy. Hopefully we'll see longer periods of warm/hot settled spells or another heatwave sometime this summer - this is what Summer 15' was lacking in comparison to 2013 and 2014 which were much warmer.

I am liking the model output at the moment. Exciting times ahead with a real shift in temperatures with possibilities of warmer/hotter weather and thunderstorms possibly on the horizon. It's about time we broke our first 21c.

Yes I agree, as I've said previously too, there is a lot of confusion at the moment regarding which way summer will go in regards to when La Nina will begin. In my opinion, if we get really lucky and La Nina holds off until Autumn we could get a very good summer. If it starts during the second half then I think the good part of summer could be early on (May/June/July) and then another bad August like 2014. That's my take on how things could go based on current evidence available as to how Summer 2016 could turn out e.g. La Nina is more likely to begin in late Summer/Autumn. Also along with what @weatherguru14 said, don't take long range summer forecasts as gospel during Spring. There's this as an example: http://www.lse.co.uk/politicsNews.asp?code=n8jugit6&headline=Europe_to_see_cooler_than_normal_summer__WSI predicting a 'cooler than normal Summer' for everywhere in Europe apart from Scandinavia and the Nordic Mainland region' in 2013 - after that the UK got it's hottest spell of weather since 2006. Also this in 2012: http://www.prweb.com/releases/summerweathereurope/europetempsmayjunejuly/prweb9428956.htm And then the UK got yet another unsettled non event summer and the wettest summer since 2007. So don't rely on the belief that long range forecasts at this stage for summer will be 100% accurate

Yes, good agreement from the models of a warm up starting next week Hopefully this actually verifies and becomes the start of a continued trend of less and less cooler and unsettled weather as we slowly move into early Summer throughout May. It's been a mixed week here in the South so far, bipolar is what I would use to describe it - and Spring 2016 so far in general with sunny spells and sleet showers in the same day(!) But it has felt notably cooler than mid month and a real warm up cannot come soon enough. I actually had an air frost late afternoon. I think this week is feeling more like Winter than most of Winter 15/16 did

I'm loving the sight of the Greenland high slowly being eroded after these reloads of Artic air. Spring 2016 is a mixed bag so far in my opinion but the sooner that Greenie high is eroded to make way for warmer weather the better. As for next week, I don't think it's looking particularly bad with sunny spells as well as the odd passing shower but it will feel unseasonably cold again. It's like a yo yo Also the sight of snow for some could be welcoming considering we just had another snow starved wet and windy winter, depending on how one feels about Springtime snow.

Summers 2005 and 2014 were nothing to complain about in my opinion: apart from August 2014 being ruined by Hurricane Bertha - other than that, I'd more or less take a repeat of those for this year @weatherguru14 I agree, after looking more deeply into weather patterns of previous years, I'm now starting to think that predominantely warmer than average dry settled springs are bad omens for Summer based on the average to disastrous recent summers that followed such Springs (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012). I wouldn't say last summer was particularly bad but it was still cooler than average despite being dry, no proper heatwaves and real warm spells lasted no more than a day. As for Summer 2016 it's a fine line regarding settled and unsettled weather. Long range modelling at this point can be very vague and uncertain - from what I can gather, La Nina and when it will fully begin is a big reason for why they have been switching from between warm and dry and cool and wet. Nothing is clear cut at the moment - as I mentioned before I recall the models and sites like WSI predicting a warm and dry Summer in 2012 for the UK during that Spring only for the outlook to rightfully change once Summer had started and it was clear that predominantely cool and wet weather would be dominant. Also 2015 was predicted as cool and wet and whilst it was on the cooler side of average, for me it wasn't mostly wet and occasionally there were pleasant warm spells. In my opinion - La Nina beginning most likely at the end of Summer could see cool and unsettled weather more likely during the second half, particularly in August. But with ENSO neutral conditions pulling the strings during late spring and early summer this could mean more chances of a lot of warmer, dry proper Summer weather for the first part (May/June/July). I wouldn't say a clear cut settled and warm (2003) or unsettled and cool (2007/2011/2012) summer but a mixed bag much like 2014 as a recent good example.

Though for me a lot of last summer was dry and settled which is nothing to complain about, most of the time there was a nagging breeze from the Northerly winds keeping temperatures suppressed. Here in the South during Summer 2015 I only sporadically saw the temperature rise to 24-25 degrees or above. Most of the time it was around 19-22 degrees during the day whereas in 2013 and 2014 there were some decent hot spells and regular daytime temperatures comfortably over 20 degrees. the cold SST values will not be as bad or not be still present by the time this summer rolls around. I also would not be surprised if we are entering another period of a cluster of predominantely dry months, due to the extremely unsettled Winter just gone - I don't see a 2007/2012 style washout following it because then it would literally be almost a year of mostly unsettled weather which even for the UK would be extreme.

Hmm just as I thought from seeing other recent ENSO forecasts looks like La Nina is most likely to hit around the end of Summer - beginning of Autumn at the earliest. Said this in another thread before but if ENSO neutral conditions do indeed prevail for the early-middle part of the summer which apparently means more chance of settled weather and a decent hot spell, which last year's summer although it was dry, lacked then I'm happy Interestingly 2007 and 2012's poor summers were both caused by a La Nina following a weaker El Nino, that arrived in mid/late Spring and caused most the summer to be a washout. 1998 was an El Nino summer much like 2015 - I remember the reports about how 'bad' it supposedly was but on reflection it wasn't terrible compared to what would arrive in 2007 and 2012. Encouragingly, 1983 - an excellent summer was during the period of an El Nino declining during spring similar to what we are seeing now, and ENSO neutral conditions prevailing during the summer months; the La Nina did not arrive until the Autumn. I agree with not taking any long range forecasts about the upcoming Summer 2016 seriously this early on - For instance I recall WSI was predicting a 'dry, warmer than normal summer for the UK and Scandinavia' at this point in 2012 and well the rest is history

I personally don't start looking for notable heat and thunderstorms until it's properly Summer anyway (June onwards). Otherwise I would describe the current weather and model output as normal weather for April.

Well I reckon 8- 14c is normal for early April, I personally don't start looking for significantly warmer temperatures until end of May/June in terms of reaching 20c. In the meantime it seems ok for me for it to be around 10-12c daytime at the beginning of April - perhaps increasing to mid teens by the end of the month into May Also loving the variety of weather April and Spring has to offer - a much needed change from the boredom of 4 months of endless rain, wind and named storms of the past 'Winter.'

I think it's been a very average April so far, and will end up average overall weatherwise, nothing too warm and settled but also not too cold and wet. Changeable and mixed which to me is standard April weather anyway.

This is true, and in 2007, 2008, 2012 as examples, 20c was reached and broken quite early into Spring with an abundance of settled weather however come the Summer the weather and temperatures went rapidly downhill. So if more periods of unsettled weather early Spring means that longer periods of settled weather and warmer temperatures follow later into the season into Summer I don't mind And the immediate outlook for my location at least isn't that bad, a mixture of sunny spells and showers but nothing continuously unsettled like this past November-January.

This is what I was thinking too as I have read in other recent articles that La Nina could kick in August at the earliest as this current El Nino has been quite strong but maybe it won't break the 1998 record after all. As opposed to say 2007/2012 which had a weaker El Nino preceding a La Nina in place by mid/late Spring and early Summer hence all the wet weather during the summer months of those years. If La Nina materialises then it would mean another poor August I suppose but if ENSO neutral conditions preceding it provided the UK with decent spells of summer weather beforehand during May-June-July I wouldn't be too bothered Strange March 2016 stats though, I thought it didn't feel like a very wet March in the South due to long periods of High Pressure and hazy/light cloud with occasional sunshine.

Yes, encouraging update from the Met towards HP being back in charge after a couple of unsettled and possibly stormy days. As for the outcome of spring and summer, I think that for there to be two consecutive long periods of mostly unsettled and wet weather like a 2012 style exceptionally wet spring and summer after the second wettest winter on record would have to be something truly exceptional and one for the record books. El Nino if it still holds over Spring and Summer would probably provide a replica of Summer 2015 with it being around average with occasional warmer and cooler periods and a North South split in terms of higher frequency of warm weather - last year was OK in the South occasionally warmer than average but for most of the UK average or a tad cooler. A neutral ENSO period between Nino and Nina transitions could see some warm summer weather if history holds true (1983, 2003) which would be the best outcome even if it was for say, 2 weeks only. One of my main gripes with last summer was that truly hot conditions never lasted for more than a day or two despite an abundance of dry weather (in my location) there sometimes was more in the way of cool to average and cloudy/windy conditions.