wishingforsnow

Yes as some runs this evening have shown its not yet a clear cut outcome to cold and that positioning could have a major impact on what we end up with - as at the moment different scenarios are possible. So the Beeb and Met can't call anything until a clear outcome is shown.

Most likely, they're usually put together before the evening runs come out and aired at the same time. Also I recall Countryfile and the Beeb downplaying the January cold spell as there kept being no mention of cold until a few days before it started despite the model runs being increasingly indicative of cold weather coming.

I recall during the last cold spell, Countryfile temperatures for the South were often a bit higher than what it actually was, like saying it would be 7-9 degrees during the day but it was actually 4-5. And there was plenty of daytime air frosts too

Yes I think they are sitting on the fence until a clearer signal emerges that causes them to support a snowy outcome. Sometimes it can even be 1-2 days before.

Last time we were in this position in January we had just been battered by 2 months worth of storms. People had no hope for anything cold whatsoever arriving then slowly charts with cold potential started to appear and upgrade and we did get 10 cold storm free days (which could have been extended had it not been for Alex ruining everything and the PV regrouping). This time I hope we can get something like that again or even better. Really hoping the models are reflecting another change

Note those aren't 'Day 10' charts

Great set of charts. Over the past few days we have been seeing some of the best potential output since mid January, before that day when all of the models suddenly flipped mild and wet and since then until very recently the models were once again churning out dismal outputs. For once this winter I hope things will actually play out in the UK's favour taking into account the rotten luck we have had in getting just about anything in regards to prolonged cold and settled weather and snow.

Funny how all these interesting model runs and synoptics have been showing up JUST as most of us have been throwing in the towel in regards to Winter

That looks better right? (An upgrade)

They don't have confidence in models showing cold at present as more support is needed for a colder signal to develop. But this could change. The Met Office usually only support an idea or trend if there is a strong enough signal to do so. We have to watch what happens over the next few days/week.

I don't see any 'mild' in those charts! Will be interesting to see what the Met Office thinks of this, although with possible cold spells such as the one in January they are reluctant to get on board until they have enough confidence to do so. I also think the impact of Imogen will help to drag colder air down over the UK perhaps causing a change to colder weather again.

Hmmm Storm Imogen has got me thinking, as it seems to be a named storm with some serious magnitude, the other coming close being Frank in late December/early January. Remembering how Frank was so powerful and its effects aided the January cold spell (I think), I'm now starting to think what if Imogen will have some sort of impact at aiding cold weather to arrive in the UK again as it looks to be dragging down some cold air as it hits the UK. The models have been changing so much but the trend of a southerly tracking jet, colder air and possible widespread UK snow has turned up on more than a few runs over the past few days.

Would definitely be something after the 'winter' so far

I don't know whether this is a stretch or gun jumping from me but the trends over the past few days to me have hinted developments in favour of cold may be tentatively unfolding for the UK. For the sanity of coldies and those of us who want a break from storms I hope this is what's happening & that things don't go wrong and mess up any further chances of cold weather yet again.

Well what do we have here? Snow events in the South?

Personally I think our next best chance for potent cold is early Spring, tying in with Ian Pennell's thoughts, should the warming be as you described.

It could have helped had it not been simply a displacement with an unfavourable position for the UK.

A great summary from Tamara. The winter so far has been 95% horrible and what most people are looking for now in model trends is dry weather as opposed to snow. Basically we have had the worst possible luck in regards to how this winter has played out in that we are literally clutching at the last possible straw in the MJO to give the UK colder conditions. The UK could have had some colder and more settled weather by now had it not been for Hurricane Alex and the unfavourable strat warming but unfortunately luck wasn't on our side. If the MJO doesn't work out either then I think that's really it and roll on Spring and more so Summer which hopefully can make up for the horrible weather we have had to endure so far as surely 4 months of predominantely rain and gales cannot continue for much longer- that would be a stretch even for the UK imo and people would go absolutely crazy. Hopefully it will balance out in the end There is always light at the end of the tunnel; recently Summer 2014 after the similarly horrid winter.

Wasn't GFS 06z hinting at possible high pressure next week? It would be nice if the models and forecasters could firm up on an outcome after next week on this and hopefully a true end to the incessant wind and rain of the past 4 months as opposed to a few dry days only. Its really feeling like early 2014 right now where we were looking for absolutely any signs of a dry out after being pelted with storms day in and day out for months on end.

That's a really confusing chart. There seems to be cold air over the UK though?

That looks like a lot of blue

Although it is comforting to remember that another year with a major El Nino (1983) had a cold spring from March - May and a hot summer following a mostly mild winter. However in other El Nino years where the Nino was not as strong such as 2007 and 2011 as recent examples, the springs in those years were warm and dry but the following summers were cool, wet and unsettled due to a quicker Nina transition during the late spring and summer as the Ninos for those years declined faster. I'm not saying its a clear correlation but hopefully this year ends up closer to 1983 in similarity give or take. Also Ian isn't ruling out some warmer periods during the spring either.

I think it could either be snow or freezing rain depending on one's location

What's interesting and perhaps different from the past week or two of model watching since the January cold spell ended is that we're now seeing potential cold outputs closer than the usual 'day 10' which never comes off and is usually binned after a day. But the fact that the jet sinking south has been shown on a few previous runs prior to tonight's is giving me a bit more confidence that perhaps the models are on to something developing as opposed to another 'garden path' situation.

Yes, interestingly there have been a few runs such as yesterday's which also had a southerly tracking jetstream with lows running south of the UK before being dropped this morning and picked up again in tonights ECM