PsychedelicTony

Can't miss me this one surely.. But I bet its hail..

Accuweather (I know) seems keen on some accumulations overnight tonight in some areas of the North. Already been some North East Wales as I've pictured above.

Traffic cam 19 minutes ago

Drive through this on the A55 about an hour ago. Minor accumulations building up on the side roads. Gotta head early back tomorrow same route

Yep polar NW'ly will produce frequent and heavy hail showers or slightly longer periods of sleet unless -8 uppers. For my location and yours for certain.

So I've been watching this saga from afar thinking surely the GFS hasn't nailed this one, has it? I was doubtful. Its pretty much on its own. But then again it nailed a White Christmas from 300hrs once for North West UK. Think it was 2004? But doubtful. Sceptical. The only reason for my post is to say that I've been looking at these winter charts for nearly 20 years. I understand more than the basics (just) but some folks on here remind me of the fact that no matter how powerful a computer model is, the HUMAN input is STILL required. Hats off to some posters on here really. Won't name names.

Post wise I'm a novice but I have to point out that 24hrs ago some of the operationals were going for temperatures around 13 or 14c for my location and some further South. (For next Wednesday) Today's forecast high was 23c, actual temp was 28c I've a particular interest in next week as I'm camping at a festival, Powys, Wales. At the moment it's impossible to be certain of conditions. So when the family have asked me about next week, and I think this is a fair enough guess, I said "OK expect some warm. muggy conditions, some warm sunshine, definitely some showers/rain about and perhaps some huge downpours but overall quite warm. That's my take on next week in general. It is a breakdown of the current conditions but it is normal UK summer weather.

33c even up on Great Orme Llandudno. That's gotta be a record if official

Looks like Hawarden in North Wales will claim its Welsh alltime record back after losing it briefly a few hours back. Currently 37c according to Netweather Top 20

I concur - dry here

Remember that well. Was watching breakfast TV and it was chucking it down in Liverpool. An hour later total whiteout in Manchester

To be honest you arent missing much, its moderate showers for 10 minutes then the sun is back out. Skys darkening agaun to the east though

The best synoptics for Manchester is when you get an Easterly place for a week or so, then veers Northerly for another few days. Any slight change then to the West in the wind direction usually does the business.

I lived in South Manchester for 28 years until 4 years ago. This is a great assessment. Might get lucky on a cold NWly, often misses streamers heading hrough Cheshire gap. Far South and South East can catch them, just. Eg Wythenshawe and Stockport South can get hit but Didsbury zilch. Straight Westerly cold airmass bingo. Very rare its cold enough. Usually after weeks of entrenched surface cold. Battleground attack from the west with easterly feed, icy drizzle/light pellets. For hours. Zero accumulation. North Easterly did have a few falls make it over which can provide a quick covering, got to be a LOT of showers packing into say Whitby area on a strong wind.

Totally dry all day in Llandudno, despite what the radar says

Up in North Wales Ive been in the radar snow zone most of the day but its been dry as a bone. Not one flake

Getting some of the white stuff on the North Wales coast which is rare

Thin covering down to sea level on Llandudno prom. Unable to get car up the Orme as there was an intense hail downpour with big stones, left the roads an icerink. Bus attempted it and got stuck.

Snowed on and off since lunchtime here. Some heavyish. Total accumulation? 0.0cm

After 24hrs of rain its chucking it down with snow now

Snowing now in Llandudno.

Good news eh? Visibility terrible so could barely see over that way when I went down to West Shore 10 minutes ago.

Its hail SP

If its not snow on Rhuallt Hill theres no hope for here!