PsychedelicTony

Mini streamer in the North showing as sleet on radar but all snow.

Got a bit of a covering, last heavy shower somehow missed us

I concur...direct cold westerly best direction for Manchester. Or West North West.

Is it correct to say that wherever the pivot point is, that that location will see significantly less precipitation than other areas 40-50 miles away? Has happened in the past. (This is re: Thursday/Fri)

Or Snowdonia

History tells us that these events always correct futher south than modelled. A one liner is sometimes all that's needed!

The trough is snow..at sea level

Even the area on the North Wales coastline showing as rain on the radar is falling as snow although very marginal. Big 50p flakes. Turned to rain as I'm typing actually that's how marginal!

Its like watching the tide edge closer to the kids sandcastle. Numerous attempts but you know it will engulf it soon.

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

The GFS 12z looked too good to be true and no doubt it will turn out that way. I've got a feeling that high pressure will nudge in from the south west at some point. Still, would take a blend from the big 3 as shown today for sure. Pretty much guaranteed cold with some decent events for some in the next fortnight.

Ha ha, well its an indicator of whats coming in. Plus I used to live in Manchester for 30 years and was myself interested in conditions further west when a band was coming in.

Temperature on the car was reading 3c too so there is some hope for you guys.

Had some light snow the last 30 minutes in LLandudno, albeit at 156m (513ft) asl...now sleet/rain.

Point taken but it can be epic for some locations, witness last Feb/March. Drifts up to upper bedroom windows. That is epic. At the moment though the output does look like typical winter fare on offer. I think because we didn't know about the effect of SSW in years gone by, coupled with the results of the one last winter has resulted in lofty expectations after this current warming. I wouldn't be ruling out a good dumping of snow anywhere. But at the moment the model output looks like, you know, like a normal winter cold interlude.

I think I've looked on enviously from Manchester before!!

Thing is every winter you see at least some falling snow in the North West. Other areas don't see a flake for 5 years then BOOM they get a foot with 4/5ft drifts. Wondering which people would prefer? I ask as my daughter is 11. She is used to seeing some snow every year. But moving to Llandudno her friends said they had NEVER seen snow when there was a fall in December. (they probably had when they were toddlers mind). I think id prefer the usual yearly hope/dusting/letdowns and occasional decent fall than one mega 2 day event every 6/7 years.

I think that was the legendary "pivot point" event??

Yeah, a particualrly fruitless direction for South Manc!

Is the wind SE/ESE? Had 24hrs of snizzle from that once in Chorlton. Fine ice pellets leading to zero accumulation.

Going back to Anglesey (and being boring no doubt), i reckon you can trace that back to the "boomerang" that was mentioned yesterday afternoon/evening. It had grown in size by the time it hit here but passed through fairly quickly.