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PsychedelicTony

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    Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by PsychedelicTony

    So I've been watching this saga from afar thinking surely the GFS hasn't nailed this one, has it? I was doubtful. Its pretty much on its own. But then again it nailed a White Christmas from 300hrs once for North West UK. Think it was 2004?

    But doubtful. Sceptical. 

    The only reason for my post is to say that I've been looking at these winter charts for nearly 20 years. I understand more than the basics (just) but some folks on here remind me of the fact that no matter how powerful a computer model is, the HUMAN input is STILL required. 

    Hats off to some posters on here really.  Won't name names. 

     

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by PsychedelicTony
    Clarification

    Post wise I'm a novice but I have to point out that 24hrs ago some of the operationals were going for temperatures around 13 or 14c for my location and some further South. (For next Wednesday) 

    Today's forecast high was 23c, actual temp was 28c

    I've a particular interest in next week as I'm camping at a festival, Powys, Wales. At the moment it's impossible to be certain of conditions. So when the family have asked me about next week, and I think this is a fair enough guess, I said "OK expect some warm. muggy conditions, some warm sunshine, definitely some showers/rain about and perhaps some huge downpours but overall quite warm. 

    That's my take on next week in general. It is a breakdown of the current conditions but it is normal UK summer weather.

    • Like 2

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by PsychedelicTony
    Spelling / Grammar

    2 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    Welcome.  

    Manchester does best in a NW’ly Arctic airmass but specifically when the wind reverts to a straight W’ly but maintains the very cold uppers, that is Manchester’s best setup. Eg December 2000, December 2001, December 2009 and January 2010.
     

    We nearly always get snow showers off the Irish Sea when there’s a westerly wind and cold uppers, even if they are short sharp spells - e.g. Jan 2015 and Jan 2019 - on these occasions Manchester might be the only city in the country receiving snow at the time. 

    Deep cold easterlies will usually bring snow showers but they often die as they reach west Manchester - you may see some Monday and Tuesday. Fronts moving in from the west into an easterly airmass are not to be relied upon because we can be affected by the Pennine snow shadow effect which dries out the precipitation. 
     

    We can be a frustrating city for snow but certainly not the worst. I’d temper your expectations though as that transient stuff you speak of recently is probably the snowiest spell we’ve had for quite a number of years. I was driving past Castlefield the other week with snow settling on the Mancunian Way - believe me that doesn’t happen too often. Transient events are very common - the last time we had deep cold and long lasting deep snow was Jan 2010. 

    I lived in South Manchester for 28 years until 4 years ago. This is a great assessment.

    Might get lucky on a cold NWly, often misses  streamers heading hrough Cheshire gap. Far South and South East can catch them, just. Eg Wythenshawe and Stockport South   can get hit but Didsbury zilch.

    Straight Westerly cold airmass bingo. Very rare its cold enough. Usually after weeks of entrenched surface cold.

    Battleground attack from the west with easterly feed, icy drizzle/light pellets. For hours. Zero accumulation. 

    North Easterly did have a few falls make it over which can provide a quick covering, got to be a LOT of showers packing into say Whitby area on a strong wind. 

    • Like 1

    North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

    I was checking out the traffic cams that way, visibility is very poor that way. I imagine those cameras at Rhuallt Hill and Halkyn might seen some snow if those heavy showers find their way there. 

    I wonder if the top of Penmaenmawr quarry saw some snow at 400m asl.

    Youd have though so. Going out now so will look over, but left it a bit late! 

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