[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Got a bit of a covering, last heavy shower somehow missed us

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

I concur...direct cold westerly best direction for Manchester. 

Or West North West.

[Incoming Cold Spell Discussion - 28/01/2019 - 2/04/2019]

Is it correct to say that wherever the pivot point is, that that location will see significantly less precipitation than other areas 40-50 miles away? Has happened in the past. (This is re: Thursday/Fri)

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

Or Snowdonia

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

History tells us that these events always correct futher south than modelled. A one liner is sometimes all that's needed!

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

43 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

trough is rain though, our chances after that when cold air comes in behind, with NW/NNW winds

The trough is snow..at sea level

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Even the area on the North Wales coastline showing as rain on the radar is falling as snow although very marginal. Big 50p flakes.

Turned to rain as I'm typing actually that's how marginal!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Its like watching the tide edge closer to the kids sandcastle.

Numerous attempts but you know it will engulf it soon.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I've done a quick paintjob to show this key difference which comes at a crucial time:

So here are the big 3:

The ECM at day 4 note the PV lobe beginning to transfer sw and then compare that with the GFS and UKMO.

We cant afford this early transfer because we need enough forcing on the low over the UK to clear that se and develop some ridging to the north of it.

ECM                                                           GFS                                                        UKMO

 

 

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

The GFS 12z looked too good to be true and no doubt it will turn out that way.

I've got a feeling that high pressure will nudge in from the south west at some point.

Still, would take a blend from the big 3 as shown today for sure. Pretty much guaranteed cold with some decent events for some in the next fortnight.

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Whether it's snow in Wales is a bit useless to us

 

 

Ha ha, well its an indicator of whats coming in. Plus I used to live in Manchester for 30 years and was myself interested in conditions further west when a band was coming in.

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

 Temperature on the car was reading 3c too so there is some hope for you guys.

[North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......]

Had some light snow the last 30 minutes in LLandudno, albeit at 156m (513ft) asl...now sleet/rain.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

7 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

Point taken but it can be epic for some locations, witness last Feb/March. Drifts up to upper bedroom windows. That is epic.

At the moment though the output does look like typical winter fare on offer. I think because we didn't know about the effect of SSW in years gone by, coupled with the results of the one last winter has resulted in lofty expectations after this current warming.

I wouldn't be ruling out a good dumping of snow anywhere. But at the moment the model output looks like, you know, like a normal winter cold interlude.

[North west regional discussion]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

A direct Arctic northerly, sometimes Llandudno can get hit by a streamer in that set-up.

I think I've looked on enviously from Manchester before!!

[North west regional discussion]

Thing is every winter you see at least some falling snow in the North West.

Other areas don't see a flake for 5 years then BOOM they  get a foot with 4/5ft drifts.

Wondering which people would prefer?

I ask as my daughter is 11. She is used to seeing some snow every year. But moving to Llandudno her friends said they had NEVER seen snow when there was a fall in December. (they probably had when they were toddlers mind).

I think id prefer the usual yearly hope/dusting/letdowns and occasional decent fall than one mega 2 day event every 6/7 years.

[North west regional discussion]

8 minutes ago, Dexter said:

March 2013?

I think that was the legendary "pivot point" event??

 

[North west regional discussion]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Yes, 95° at the surface Veering a bit to 120° up to 700 mb, then backing to 100° above that.

Yeah, a particualrly fruitless direction for South Manc!

[North west regional discussion]

Is the wind SE/ESE?

Had 24hrs of snizzle from that once in Chorlton. Fine ice pellets leading to zero accumulation.

[North west regional discussion]

Going back to Anglesey (and being boring no doubt), i reckon you can trace that back to the "boomerang" that was mentioned yesterday afternoon/evening. It had grown in size by the time it hit here but passed through fairly quickly.

[North west regional discussion]

5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Anglesey, on the coast and protected by mountains to its east ,12 inch of snow , someone's taking the Pisz .

Its been sat there for nearly 24hrs though. Worth mentioning that some of that area showing on radar as snow is producing nothing at all. But if there are reports of 12" on Anglesey  id say it was entirely ipossible given the length of time the precipitation has been stationary.

[North west regional discussion]

Re Chorlton..Forgot to mention the fluke streamer straighthe from the irish on a pretty much straight westerly or possibly slight WNW. But think that was 2009 again 

[North west regional discussion]

Anyone on the Wirral wanting to see some decent snow, a short drive over the border to Wales will do the trick. 

Big drifts in places between say Buckley and Prestatyn

Regarding the Chorlton snow shield - yep it is in a poor place for snow from most directions. I'moved last year after 28 years there. The only decent falls were 1990 1996 2009 2010

It does suffer badly from the rain shadow and is often a touch too far north for the Cheshire gap streamer. A strong North Easterly will do the trick or an embed trough in a North flow in December or January about the only hope.

I now live in Llandudno and work in Liverpool. Neither are any better for snow. Best place is Buxton..goes without saying really I suppose!!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cool post Tony, but don't tell the Express! will be on front page, polar vortex to hit Britain, 6 weeks of snaw

I can give em their headlines  for the next 6 months"!

"Dementia Cure on the way"

"Arctic blast to cripple Britain next week"

"Statins increase risk of Alkzeimers"

"Britain colder than Moscow this weekend"

"Storm Henry to Bash the UK"

"Coffee reduces Heart Attack Risk"

"Heatwave Brtiain..UK Hotter than Greece"

"Brexit fears unfounded, Wages rise as immigrant leave"

"UK to face flood risk"

"Biblical floods return in washout summer"

(Pics from Wimbledon/Glastonbury)

I'm giving up around June..!!

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Rare post from me although I've been on here for years in one guise or other, mainly lurking.

This is a rare beast indeed. Comments stating won't be that cold maybe true at surface level for the majority of the time but temperatures really will plummet in any heavy precipitation and it will most likely by heavy hail and snow. When I first starting viewing weather models at the start of the internet era I thought every wave of coldish air coming in from the Atlantic was going to deliver! Then watched as the next frame showed the upper air getting quickly modified. Nevermind, there are more "blues" coming behind. Errgh gone green again.

Basically its a piece of the PV. Coming from the Atlantic. I remember a visit in late April/Early May one year and it was horrible. Heavy hail and temperatures dipping to about 6 or 7c at noon during the precipitation. So if the intensity is there in Janruary,, forecasted 5/6c temps could well drop to freezing and a rapid snowblanket form at any level.