PB22

ECM T+168: http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?30-0 Now that is a cold chart!

The low to the southwest threatens on ECM at T+96, but decides against it and sinks away by T+120, leaving us to look northeast...

ECM 12z is now on the way out, and the T+72 chart is here: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm721.html Not too dis-similar to the GFS 12Z and UKMO 12z at this stage...

ECM 12z is now on the way out, and the T+72 chart is here: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm721.html Not too dis-similar to the GFS 12Z and UKMO 12z at this stage...

A sensational UKMO 12z T+144 chart: http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?30-17

The 12Z GME and UKMO do not make much of that low that the GFS wants to bring close to the south...instead we have to look northeast: GME T+132: http://91.121.94.83/...n/gme-0-132.png UKMO T+120: http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?30-17 OT: But there was snow on Sizewell beach last week.

This thread can be closed now , its 9.3C here and much of the southeast is now around 8C or 9C which is a tad above normal.

Agree totally. I brought this point up last year but was shot down in flames for suggesting it by some quarters. I still 100% believe the further outlooks are prepared the day before they are actually published as they are so often well behind the latest developments. The outlook looks cold for the foreseeable future across northern Britain, but its looking like an increasingly shortened cold snap for southern counties before milder conditions return once more. Of course this may change over future runs, but I know where my money would be going.

Better make the most of the next day or so as its going to feel very different by Boxing Day it seems with Kent possibly into double figures: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn7817.html

After the earlier good agreement of cold until Christmas Day, the 18GFS set has now developed a split for the big day itself: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=353&ext=1&y=93&run=18 Not a mild outlier until FI, whilst the control went milder even quicker than the operational did. The uncertainty continues!

The 18Z GFS has prolonged the snow shower risk well into tomorrow now, and even intensifies it a bit around lunchtime before finally dying out: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/12-574.GIF?18-18 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/18-574.GIF?18-18 And then there is tomorrow night's potential: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/run/30-574.GIF?18-18

A heavier snow shower now passing through, big flakes as well.

Snowing lightly here now in east Suffolk. :lol:

Hi CV, For next week I wouldn't be taking quite so much notice of 850hPa temperatures to be honest with the cold well established at the surface. I think most of Britain will stay cold until Christmas now, and what happens beyond the big day itself remains open to question. I certainly wouldn't call any breakdown to milder conditions at this stage.

Its now raining here on the Suffolk coast.

12Z ECM also goes with the cold theme for the run up to Christmas: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm721.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Not sure to be honest. I'm not totally trusting of radar off the East Anglian coast as the resolution is very poor in this part of the world. There was supposed to have been an upgrade done last year, but as far as I know its yet to be done.

Winds seem to have gone more northeasterly north of Norfolk and over Lincolnshire...I wonder if a shallow low may be developing? http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Looks to me on satellite images that a trough may be forming close to eastern coasts: http://www.sat24.nl/Region.aspx?country=nl&sat=ir&type=loop

Heavy snow falling now here in East Suffolk, large flakes as well!

Its delivering nothing here other than some cloud now, so I shouldn't expect too much those of you to the south/southwest of Suffolk!

East Suffolk update, light snow now falling again.

Thanks for sharing that with us. It was certainly very wild, and I for one wouldn't have liked to be out there in those conditions.

I'd say stay put...there's a continued risk of snow showers in the southeast for the next 24-30 hours. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs123.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs183.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs243.html

If nothing else, the 06Z GFS certainly indicates we could well be in for a prolonged cold spell now with no firm signs really of a breakdown to milder weather. Details beyond early next week remain very sketchy, but the trend is certainly there for the cold to stay.