PB22

Very impressive, only a small minority go milder, and I use that termly loosely as only 3 or 4 runs get above 5C throughout the entire run for the Middle region. Will be interesting to see what the London ensembles show later on.

The Dutch ensembles: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Remaining very cold, with the operational and control runs going slightly above the mean for the end of the week/next weekend.

Short term details for the ECM run (precip, 850s) can be found here by the way: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=temp

Superb post!! No-one knows for sure what will crop up and when, but there is the potential for just about everyone to see some snow at least over the coming days! These are charts that many have dreamed off and for them to be coming up at this time of year is just perfect.

JMA doesn't show any breakdown either: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1441.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1921.html

Heh, that cut off low at T+216 on ECM goes east into the continent, and could bring snow to southern areas: No real sign of any breakdown from ECM tonight.

Not at all, these are cracking charts with snow potential for many areas:

ECM, fetch from western Russia. Yes, thats poor. ECM T+144 would deliver heavy snow showers to eastern and southeastern England with that intense cold coming across the warmer North Sea. And remember those isobars are at 5mb intervals, rather than the usual 4mb we are used to, so it would be a little windier than it may seem. Not as windy as GFS though! Gosh we have been spoilt for charts if people can moan about any model output tonight!

Savour these London ECM ensembles, save them in fact, as it could be many many many years before we see the likes of them again: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html For much of this week, the average doesn't get above 0C!

Here we are Steve: http://www.imgw.pl/wl/internet/zz/english/weather/radar/radar_en.html Another stunning run, we run out of cold air eventually, but I think that would come as a relief to many people! In any case, as long as the flow is off the continent, then it will remain cold, i.e. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2401.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn24017.html

T+96 FAX: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif T+120 FAX: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Cold and wintry!

Another sensational run, what people would have given for this chart in Januaries gone by: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1262.html

Staggering extended ECM ensembles for Holland - look how low that mean keeps creeping: http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

Absolutely, too many people here showing a clear misunderstanding of whats ahead. We'll just sit back and wait for events to unfurl, then we can watch people eat humble pie! Anyway, ECM ensembles for Holland: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Cold cold cold, and barely any members rise above 0C over there in the next 10 days!

Absolutely staggering model output again tonight, and I really do think we could be on the verge of seeing January 2010 go down in the history books. For those of you worrying about snow amounts, how many times has it got to be said? There is no point worrying about it as various troughs and features won't be picked up until 24 hours beforehand. You only have to look at this weekend for examples of how snow can crop up unexpectedly. Just relax everyone, the cold is getting established, the snow will follow.

Another stunning set of ensembles from the 06Z GFS: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=356&ext=1&y=92&run=6&runpara=0 (for East Anglia) Worth noting that two days ago the mean rose back above -5C on the 11th, this morning that has been put back to the 15th.

It is a strange one! Not sure what that is all about, but wouldn't have thought its right. Here's the Stockholm 2m temperature ensemble from Wetter: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT2_Stockholm_ens.png

Here's the ECM 00Z ensembles for London: http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html Looks like becoming windy too as the cold sets in - that would help blow snow well inland.

Latest forecast from the Met Office for East Anglia is a dream: http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_weather.html It's also a cracking forecast for southeast England: http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_weather.html

Not a bad mean ensemble from the GFS for T+204! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-204.png?18

Here's the ECM 12Z ensembles for London: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Again, the operational run was towards the top end, and the mean is never far from 0C!

Would give some exceptionally cold nights under that high Darren, and by T+192 there is an easterly across the south again in any case! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-192.png?18 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-192.png?18

Those are a couple of cracking charts for cold and snow lovers, but it could be viewed in a number of different ways. It would perhaps suggest though that the Met Office are tending to go with their own model in that the Greenland block may not go anywhere fast as the UKMO run kept the block more stable rather than the ECM and GFS which want to move it further south and east with time. In return, this could mean that the easterly progged by the ECM is not necessarily viewed as a likely outcome for next weekend. Regardless, its a very cold outlook!

Tonight's T+96 and T+120 FAX charts: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Looks more akin to the UKMO output at this stage.

To be quite frank, these are the best forecast models on show in internet history, and if people cannot be allowed to discuss them without getting excited then it really is a sorry state of affairs. Those of us who are "veterans" at this game are more than aware of all the cavets that come with looking at model output beyond T+120, but given that we are already in a cold set-up with a whole range of other factors seemingly in our favour, then this is really a whole new ball game. If people cannot be allowed get enthusiastic about the current output without being shot down, then we may as well all just give up the game now. Anyway, on topic, the 18Z GFS is now rolling out and Sunday is cold, cold, cold: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn421.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn422.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn4217.html