PB22

GFS 18z edges a little closer to the Euro's for the brief easterly early next week, but still isn't totally on board: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn961.html http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn962.html

Thanks Yamkin. I know that the likes of NOGAPS, JMA and GME are generally acknowledged as being the "lesser models", but I am actually pleased with what they are showing. I can recall a number of times from when I did the model summaries when the "big three" (GFS, ECM and UKMO) showed a cold set-up but the lesser models didn't, and the lesser models were actually nearer the mark! Certainly the output tonight is a lot more encouraging for a colder flow coming in from the east than last night IMO.

Signs of a slight upgrade to the easterly early next week from this evening's 12Z runs bringing an increased risk of wintry showers for the southeast of Britain in particular. UKMO and ECM are very similar at T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html And there's some pretty chilly 850hPa temperatures associated with that flow: The GFS 12z isn't as keen, but a quick look at the ensembles shows the operational was rather on its own in bringing a quick end to the cold air coming in from the east: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Its worth monitoring this time frame as the easterly may well be upgraded slightly over the next few runs - there are a number of ensemble members that look more like the 12z UKMO and ECM, i.e.: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-96.png?12 It's quite astonishing to see the differences amongst the GFS ensemble suit at just T+96! The T+96 and T+120 UKMO FAX charts later this evening will strongly support their own model I suspect.

JH is away on holiday at the moment I believe.

Finally, and as many expected, something of a middle ground now being met by the main models this morning. There's now reasonable agreement for the weakest of easterlies to affect southern Britain, whilst further north and west south-westerlies are now the order of the day: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html After that, it then looks like high pressure may become established to the west of the UK, feeding in milder and cloudy north-westerlies as Atlantic air comes up around the top of the high: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1921.html Of course, if we can get an Atlantic high in place, it can help us to get a cold northerly, but only if heights over Greenland rise. GFS operational decides against this on the 00z run, but ECM is hinting at something along these lines: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2401.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2401.html The GFS ensembles really don't look at all inspiring: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png At least the ECM has backed away from that zonal flow it had last night and looks to have settled down this morning, but overall it looks like it could be another couple of weeks of valuable winter time gone before any snow potential returns.

Is that the same Rob that forecast a snowy Sunday on the Saturday night before just over a week ago which never materialised?

It would depend on how the operational fits in with the rest of the ensemble members There are 50 different runs in those ECM ensembles, and from them we can usually get a good idea of the general pattern, even if the operational is out on its on from early on. Following the mean on those ensembles usually helps to get a good idea of what the general pattern may be, i.e. on tonight's for Holland its a getting colder picture before turning less cold after around day 8.

To some extent they are, but we can still use the ensembles to try and gain a better idea of what may happen and to see where the operational run stood.

The ECM ensembles for Holland show the operational was one of the milder runs, but perhaps more concerning for the easterly hunter's is that the majority of ensemble members now turn a bit milder by days 8-10: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

I really wish the huge block to our east would go away now to be honest. It's becoming increasingly obvious to most of us who know a thing or two that its merely wasting valuable winter time, leaving us in no-man's land for so long without actually providing us with anything decent in terms of winter weather. Another week or two down the line and we are then entering February, sunlight is increasing and as every day passes we will increasingly stuggle to see anything decent in terms of lying snow. For me, daytime highs of only a couple of degrees above freezing with dull southeasterlies doesn't cut it, and I'd rather we had the milder Atlantic influence. Still, if the ECM 12z were to come off, I'd get my wish there!

Thank goodness this chart is at T+192, because its quite frankly awful: All that Atlantic mild air piles through Scandinavia...

I think the writing is on the wall to be frank people. ECM 12Z sticks to its guns by saying no easterly next week, and given that the UKMO 12z run has also backed off (or delayed things as some may prefer it to be described as) from its output last night, then I would expect this to turn out to be another poor episode for the GFS and the GFS model will gradually back down over the next few runs. I am confident of calling this potential easterly now as a "no go" because of the increasing amounts of energy that are now being progged into the northern arm of the jet in a realistic time frame on the models, and also from previous experience of viewing this type of thing being played out on the models before. As I said last week, unless we can get higher heights over Greenland, then there will not be anything notably wintry for our shores. Don't get me wrong, the outlook is still a chilly one and definitely not mild, but I cannot see anything particularly wintry, even based on the standards of the last few years. ECM T+168: Sticks to its guns.

London 12z ECM ensembles: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Operational was not a mild outlier until day 9/10, when it became one of the milder runs. Overall, the ensemble set this evening is not a whole lot different to what this morning's was.

Interesting model output again tonight, and its hard to to see where this will all end up. The ECM London ensembles will be interesting viewing in a bit, but I remain very sceptical of any true deep cold pool affecting the UK in the next week to ten days. Having said that, it does look like temperatures at the surface will often be on the cold side, and we could see a number of dull and cold days as we sit in no man's land. To me, tonight's T+96 and T+120 FAX charts suggest this: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Interesting model output this evening - it looks to me that the models are currently in the process of picking up on new developments in the outlook, hence the rather confusing picture being painted by the models at the moment. The ECM T+144 sums things up well at the moment IMO:

Mildest set of London ensembles from the ECM that I have seen lately with some runs making the 10C mark: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Of course, mean temperatures mostly close to normal after the next few days, but that is a lot milder than recently.

Met Office not seeing any cold spell returning towards the month's end at this stage then....

Prospects for snow potential around the middle of this coming week have been reduced even further on the 06Z GFS run. We stil have the weak undercutting low: http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn781.html But the cold air is even further to the east now: http://www.wzkarten3...s/Rtavn782.html And dewpoints above 0C everywhere, even over Scotland: http://www.wzkarten3.../Rtavn7810.html Surface temperatures are still chilly, but not cold enough: http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn7817.html What people could well see, especially across central and western Britain, is plenty of cold rain: http://www.wzkarten....mgfs120sum.html The FAX chart isn't quite as good as last night's either, with everything slightly further east, including the cold air: http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack2a.html However, the ECM 00Z run is a little more promising, with more in the way of cold air across the north and east: http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/100117_0000_90.png But there's not much precipitation around: http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/100117_0000_90.png Longer term is anyone's guess really. There are signs of colder conditions returning once again, but they are deep into FI.

Would have to agree at this moment in time Ian. I really cannot see much of a snow event for Wednesday on this evening's charts, except maybe for the hills of northern England northwards. We have the undercutting low: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.html But the cold air is mostly to the east: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn962.html Dewpoints aren't particularly favourable either, with only the highlands at or below 0C: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9610.html Surface temperatures are a bit better for the hills of northern England and Scotland: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9617.html This set-up looks pretty similar on the 12z UKMO and the 12z ECM: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html Again, looking at the ECM, the hills across the north are most favoured: http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/100116_1200_102.png But there's not too much in the way of precipitation around: http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/100116_1200_102.png Its still worth watching over the next couple of days, but as it stands at the moment I really wouldn't raise your hopes unless you are up a Scottish hill. Beyond this, there's reasonable agreement on an evolution back to milder conditions again: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

All gone here, after a fortnight with at least some snow cover on the ground. At last, we can get about without slipping and sliding everywhere!

Hi Karl, hope you are well. I'd certainly agree that its not a particularly mild outlook, especially around the middle of next week. However, like you say, there's nothing in the Met Office forecasts that indicate this. Indeed, for my area in the 3-5 day outlook, they mention temperatures slowly recovering, and thats following a forecast maximum of 6C for tomorrow here. The GFS indicates a near normal day on Monday, but colder by Wednesday in the north and east: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9017.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn11417.html The raw data on the Met Office's own website also suggest a cooling off theme towards midweek, which is somewhat against their written text! It does look like turning milder again beyond this though. The ensembles on the whole aren't too far from normal values, but again it does look like a wet week ahead: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png This is backed up by the rainfall totals chart by T+144: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.html

No joy from the JMA 12Z, in fact its a balmy run! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1441.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1442.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1682.html

I'd certainly agree there. Reasonable confidence on the evolution out to T+144. There will be some subtle changes up to then, there usually is. If the GFS Operational hadn't churned out what it did, there would be very little optimism for a renewed cold spell in the next week to ten days IMO. I do like that ECM T+240 chart though, which is the opposite of the GFS T+240 chart! :o

Hi CV, Pretty much spot on! GFS operational is certainly out on its own at the moment with its early FI idea, and one would think it is barking up the wrong tree, but there's no telling what future runs may bring.

Unsettled at T+168, but the game isn't necessarily up: