PB22

The GFS ensembles continue to point towards a cold spell developing next week, with just 1 mild outlier: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Welcome! These are the forecast temperatures for T+144 from the GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn14417.html Close to freezing in many parts according to the GFS model.

Not yet Mr H! Although I must admit this is looking a very interesting set-up potentially.

Thank you very much UKMO 12z! I'll bank that run now please! T+144:

The T+96 (8th) and T+120 (9th) FAX'S will be out at around 10:30pm tonight, something to watch out for given the UKMO 12z output this evening!

If this chart comes off, I may see the most snowfall ever in my lifetime! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1442.html UKMO T+120 is increasingly cold and snowy too:

UKMO 12Z looking good so far as well:

Satisfactory output tonight, but extreme caution still needed (probably talking to myself though!). We need to see a consistent trend continued tomorrow and there is still plenty of opportunities for the set-up to go wrong. Far, far too early for backslapping - its not even started to happen yet.

Interesting outputs tonight so far, but as others have already said, a complex set up and a lot to get through before we can be sure of the pattern. One thing I will say is that despite all the ups and downs of the model output lately, the period around February 8th (give or take a day or so) has been suggested as the start of a possible cold spell for some days now, and this continues to be the case.

I don't know who French Television would use? Maybe it would be worth emailing them to ask?

I think I have been bitten too many times by the mild winters of the 90's and early 00's! I tell you, this game should come with a health warning! <_< The ECM ensembles will be interesting later to see if the cold trend is picked up further.

Much improved output this evening, and I personally would be more confident now of a cold spell developing again than I have been at any point in the last few days. Despite this, there is a long, long way to go and we need to see this trend continued over the next few days as things can change so much in 24 hours, as we have seen recently!

UKMO T+144: Clearly its a developing story, but its an interesting run from the UKMO tonight, and its very important to have UKMO on board IMO. :lol:

UKMO T+120: Now we're talking...this has got my interest now. P.S. Shiver, stop copying posts to you know where please. Thanks.

Ahhh, we might be getting somewhere now...UKMO looks "interesting" at T+96 this evening: The T+120 and T+144 charts will be most interesting....

Indeed, and if the UKMO picks up on something then I will be more interested!

Interesting model output so far today, although I am dubious of the ECM 00z run. Its rare to see the ECM do such a flip. The ECM ensembles for London (more useful than Holland funnily enough!) show the operational was actually one of the colder options in FI for our shores, which is no real surprise: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Nonetheless, there has been an increase in the number of cold runs appearing again. The 12z UKMO will be one to watch this evening as it may well have picked up on something and given its steady consistency over the last few days it seems to be more reliable to watch at the moment, although it undoubtedly helps that it only goes out to T+144.

The overall pattern for the next week or so is gradually being sorted out. The first half of the week sees a battle between the cold and mild, with the south seeing the mildest of the conditions and Scotland seeing the coldest: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1.html http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.html Most of us will see another frost on Tuesday night: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1a.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn6617.html Then the Atlantic push gets going from Thursday onwards. GFS has one of its dartboard lows which is probably overdone, but the Euro's are consistent in bringing in a long fetch of southwesterlies by T+144: GFS: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html UKMO: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.html ECM: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1441.html A growing signal then for many areas to reach double figures next weekend: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1681.html If that were to come off then it would feel very much different to the last few months and we'd probably be outside in t-shirts! Beyond this is open to question, but the milder and unsettled theme looks to be favoured at this moment in time.

I was joking! Crumbs people are tetchy today. I shall go and insert a smiley, sorry!

It's their way of backtracking...nice and gently and hope no-one notices! Expect the words cold or rather cold to disappear in the next day or two if the model output continues to trend in the way it has been for the last day or so. Edited to confirm first line was a joke on my behalf.

Catching up slowly I see.

Not just me that's noted this then! Cold bias? On here? Never!

Hence my term "milder" and not "mild" Ensembles look to take a general upwards trend through the coming week to me with only some slight variations. Always taking that bit longer to turn "milder" across the north though.

Forecast for the week ahead just now has conditions gradually turning milder as we go through the week and increasingly unsettled with bands of wind and rain sweeping in from the southwest. Never particularly mild, but certainly milder than recently.

The upward trend continues on the 06z GFS ensembles: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png I can't help but laugh when I see people posting that FI is now at T+72 or whatever yet they have spent the last few days posting charts from beyond T+168! Lets have some consistency in the analysis eh? I don't think there is much dispute that some details are still to be determined for the coming week. Looking at the bigger picture though and the trend towards milder conditions that has become ever more evident today has been there in the models for a while now, but a lot of people didn't want to acknowledge it.