PB22

Quite a big flip in the mid-longer term on the GFS ensembles: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png Also interesting to note the milder spikes now appearing over the next few days as various features get picked up.

The 06z GEFS ensemble suite as a whole isn't quite as good as the 00z set, the mean for T+168: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-168.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-168.png?6 And the ensemble mean by T+216: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-216.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-216.png?6

We get there in FI, but I don't like the evolution of how it gets there to be honest: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2162.html Lets see how the ensembles look in a bit before making too many judgements.

Not liking the trends of the European models this morning, and now the 06Z GFS is trending away from any easterly in FI: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1621.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1622.html

The coldest set of London ECM ensembles that I have seen from the 12z run: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Pretty consistent as well which is impressive!

The fact is that whatever way the programme makers did the programme, it wouldn't please everyone. It's impossible to please everyone. You would probably get people from all walks of life watching the programme because the cold spell did attract a lot of media publicity and affected nearly everyone in one way or another and was a national talking point.

The London ECM 00z ensembles: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Generally the majority keep conditions on the cold side throughout.

Its worth remembering that documentaries like these are aimed at the general public, most of whom do not have much knowledge about all things meterological unlike most people who frequent a weather forum because we have a interest in it. Scientifcally based documentaries would be wasted on most of the public.

Very encouraging model output this morning, and thank goodness that high to the east is finally on its way! We will all finally get to see some sunshine later this week after days and days of non descript weather. Short term, the northerly still very much on and pretty good agreement across the board for this. Thursday night and Friday remains the period to watch with all models indicating a feature running south across western areas, and the FAX charts even suggest another feature following the first one: FRIDAY 00z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html FRIDAY 12z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.html Rain probably for southwestern areas, but snow likely on the northern and eastern flanks and it will probably become a nowcast situation. Longer term, and the trend from the models is fairly consistent for what may happen after the northerly. A spell of less cold weather seems probable for a time, but eyes will be on a rebuild of pressure to our northeast, which could well end up bringing an easterly as we go into February - GFS, ECM and GEM all suggest this: GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html ECM: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2161.html GEM: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgem2161.html Once again, fascinating times and about time too after what seems to have been an age with that high currently to our east holding everything up.

Tonight's 12z UKMO is a nice run as well: T+96: T+120: T+144: Would be very cold indeed under that slack flow by T+144 I suspect.

Yes, very nice if you like wet and windy weather! :unsure:

ECM ensembles for Holland: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Jolly cold really, and pretty impressive agreement. Be interesting to see the London ones later.

I really don't like to criticise the pro's, but I have to say that I thought it was a woefully poor presentation of the week ahead forecast today. Anyone who knows a thing or two about weather would be able to pick no end of bones out of that "forecast" today. It looked like a 2 minute preparation effort. Of course, those awful graphic's don't help the presenter either. I find it really, really sad to see how much the quality of BBC television forecasts have declined.

The older version by a long, long way. Oh how I miss those symbols.

ECM ensembles for Holland: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Went from being one of the colder runs to one of the milder runs in FI. Some impressive cold early next week though with that easterly there.

ECM 00Z London ensembles: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Looks like the northerly progged on this morning's run was one of the coldest runs on offer, so I really wouldn't get my hopes up too high. :unsure:

Finally tonight, the ECM 12z ensembles for London: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html The operational was one of the milder runs for later next week, which probably explains why the Met Office have gone with their own model on the FAX charts tonight. <_<

And the T+120 FAX: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Again, not too dis-similar to the 18Z GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1141.html And they have gone with their own model: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

The UKMO T+96 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif Still a cold flow into the south, and not too dis-similar to the GFS 18Z for the same time: http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn901.html

Regardless of what some may think, the 18z GFS is closer to the UKMO over this "minor" easterly for the southeast of Britain than it has been for several runs now. 18Z GFS T+90 http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn901.html: 12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rukm961.html Not identical by any means, but closer than for some time. For comparison: T+72 FAX: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif T+72 GFS 18z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

You have to laugh, the 18Z GFS brings back more of an easterly on this run: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn721.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn722.html

That's last night's JMA run that you are looking at. Tonight's will be out just after 7pm.

No doubts in my mind that the UKMO 12z run this evening has come towards the GFS slightly in that the easterly around the T+72 mark isn't as potent (for want of a better word as it was never that potent to start with). It's gone by T+120 (whereas it was still going on this morning's run): And then by T+144 we are under milder and cloudy north-westerlies with a lot of Atlantic murk probably being pulled in around the top of that Atlantic high: The GFS 12z is a little bit better with regards to any potential northerly later next week: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1682.html But even this tends to just flirt with the north and east. Overall so far the model output this evening is rather mediocre IMO to be honest. Let's hope the ECM can give us something a little more exciting but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The stand off between the models continues this morning! The 00z GFS is still very much against any easterly flow early next week, with this chart about as close as it gets: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn781.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn782.html This is the GEFS mean chart for T+96: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-96.png?0 Doesn't look like many of the ensemble members are going for it either! Meanwhile, the 00z UKMO is a pretty nice run: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm721.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html The German model is closer to the UKMO output: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-108.png http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gme/run/gme-0-132.png Judging by the Met Office forecasts, they are going with their own model with light snow showers currently being forecast for eastern areas on Monday, i.e. for eastern England: http://www.metoffice.com/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_weather.html

Tonight's UKMO T+96 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif Chilly with wintry showers for the southeast and goes with their own model. The T+120 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Also nice for the southeast cold and snow hunters.