PB22

Gosh what a change in those ECM ensembles...I suspect the London ones will look even milder when they come out in a bit. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of Met Office HQ and to hear their discussions this morning as even they were suggesting a cold easterly developing later next week even though their very own model didn't look favourable for that set up developing.

6.2C for me please.

You know, the sun is already gaining some power...in the last couple of days when it has been out it has made a big difference to the indoor temperature of my south facing flat. Definitely ready and looking forward to spring. The days are already lengthening and whilst there will probably still be some cold snaps, there is light at the end of the tunnel now.

Not much to say this morning really other than turnaround more or less complete. For me the writing had been on the wall for several runs now with the way the UKMO output was trending. I know the UKMO T+144 gets a lot of stick, but you have to take your hat off to the model on its recent performance. GFS has finally latched on, and the ensembles sum it up really: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png If its any consolation, its not just us that has seen the outlook flip...the change is even more striking on the Berlin ensembles: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png It will be interesting to see how much the ECM ensembles change as well after all this as they were also very bullish about cold, even though the operational was often a milder run. In the meantime, hats off to our very own model, the UKMO.

I was talking about tonight's FAX charts which came out an hour or so ago and were based on tonight's 12z ECM, i.e. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Nothing to do with the 6 to 15 day forecast on the Met Office website which is beyond the range of the FAX charts anyway.

Further to my previous post, the ECM London ensembles are out: http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html Whilst the ECM was at the top end of the temperature scale, it was not an outlier. As a whole, the ensemble suite is the mildest set for several runs. The T+120 FAX for February 4th is similar to the ECM T+120 output, and a look at the ensembles shows the operational was not an outlier for this time, hence the reason the pro's have come up with that FAX chart. 18Z GFS ensembles for London: http://91.121.94.83/...ndres&runpara=0 Edging ever further away from a deep cold trend.

From the previous thread, I would like to know how the FAX charts can be classified as an outlier?? I've heard some things in my time, but I have never heard of the FAX charts being called an outlier! The FAX charts have human input, and not just any old input, but input from professionals at the Met Office. They have looked at all the data and have gone with what they think is the likely outcome. They don't go and draw up an "outlier"!! In any case, I bet it wouldn't have been called an outlier if it was showing a cold easterly!

Afraid not. The FAX charts have the most important thing of all...human input!

To me the GFS 18z tonight is merely starting its backtrack towards the European models, further confirmed by the FAX charts just released. Its now looking odds on for the Atlantic influence to be our main player by the end of next week and this episode will be remembered as yet another what could have been. Once again it shows that the UKMO model must never be dismissed. It never really brought the easterly idea, and although its probably being too progressive tonight, it looks like it will be nearer the mark in the end. For easterly hunters, check out the 18z GFS beyond T+324!

FAX charts out, and they go with the ECM model tonight: T+96: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif T+120: http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif I can't see much hope there for an easterly from that T+120 chart.The UKMO 6 - 15 dayer will surely catch up tomorrow now.

Plenty of blocking to the north, northeast and east, but we're too close to the Atlantic: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1682.html

Its down to the 00z set to sort this mess out then! 18z GFS T+90: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn901.html 12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html 12z ECM T+96: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

Not much difference between the GFS, UKMO and ECM at T+72, as would be expected. Now entering the critical period on the 18z. Incidentally, I believe the 18z runs of the last few days have been the most bullish about any potential easterly - so we could get an idea of where we stand after tonight's run.

Overall poor output again this evening IMO, and once again any decent eye candy remains firmly entrenched in FI, as it has done for several days now. The UKMO shows no sign of backing down, and it will be very interesting to see the T+96 and T+120 FAX charts later tonight. Clearly there are substantial differences between the models as soon as T+96 and these will surely be resolved on the overnight runs which will help determine where we are headed. The GFS ensembles are not as cold this evening across southern Britain, and thus the trend looks to be away from an easterly outbreak to be honest: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png They are more promising further north though: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png As for the ECM ensembles, on the face of it they may look good with the majority of the ensemble pack going for a cold spell http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden But I am not at all encouraged when I see the contol and operational runs following close to each other. I believe they are also run at a lower resolution than the ensemble pack and thus are more likely to be "on the ball" so to speak. In summary then, I believe we are as far away from an easterly developing as ever, and I am not at all enthusastic in any way about the model output this evening in this sense I'm afraid.

Hi s4lancia, I'd suggest that the trend on the UKMO model is certainly away from any potential easterly based on the last three runs by that particular model, and that the other models are slowly edging towards the UKMO. I'd certainly agree with Nick S's comments above and that tonight could be last chance saloon.

Fred, can't say I agree that the GFS is any better. The ensembles sum up the shift overnight with more in the way of milder outcomes appearing: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png Time will of course tell, but I know where my money would be going if I was a betting man.

The ECM was showing an easterly outbreak on last Tuesday's 12z run starting this coming Tuesday (February 2nd), so I am not too sure where you get the 8th as a starting point from: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010012612!!chart.gif This is now the predicted outcome for Tuesday 2nd - a westerly: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010013000!!/ This sums up what the problem is - any potential easterly outbreak keeps on getting delayed and put back into FI. This morning's model output has trended even further away from any potential easterly getting started. In addition I would argue that not every model is picking up the same signal - the UKMO certainly isn't picking up much of a signal for an easterly!

I hope I am wrong too, I'd love nothing more than a bitter easterly spell! The worry is a chart like this at just T+96, so we are running out of time fast: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html ECM and GFS are slightly better at that time but the UKMO shows no sign of budging and this is usually a bad omen in my experience.

The UKMO medium term outlook will probably catch up in the next couple of days. You're right in saying that there's not much difference from yesterday's charts on the UKMO model, which for me is the worrying thing as the UKMO is being consistent in its outlook of providing that little bit more in the way of energy into the northern arm of the jet, and thus the more Atlantic based charts that are being progged. Hi Billy, yes we cannot totally dismiss the chances of an easterly developing just yet, but sadly this morning the trend is definitely heading away from an easterly outbreak on the 00z models as a whole. Of course, the trend may reverse again, but I certainly won't be holding my breath!

I won't be popular for saying this, but its got to be said. Its time for some reality this morning I'm afraid folks and its time to stop chasing a fruitless easterly which remains in FI and simply doesn't get any closer. I am sure people will try and dress it up and claim that we are still on course for an easterly in around T+200 but in my eyes we need to accept its simply not going to happen. This is the third run in a row from the UKMO that sticks to a similar theme and simply wants nothing to do with any potential easterly and we need to accept this now. Yesterday's T+144 outlook from the UKMO is now at T+120 and the model is being very consistent (more so than the rest who keep flipping about). The model also has an excellent record in the past of not going down the easterly route and proving to be right. Given that the rest of the 00z model output this morning is slowly playing catch up and edging towards the UKMO it is easy IMO to see which way this is headed. I just wonder how long it will take the Met Office to catch up? I'd suspect most of the models will lean even further towards the UKMO outlook by the 12z runs tonight, if not by tomorrow morning. My advice, get out and enjoy the snow (if you have any) this weekend, because this could be the last of it for a while.

I know it will seem like a kop out, but I'm afraid I can't name my source as much as I would like to. Afterall, I'm sure no-one here would want anyone to lose their livelihood over something thats relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things.

Right, as my post has been deleted for some reason and this one allowed, I shall reply directly to this although I suspect it will be deleted as someone obviously thinks I am on a wind up. This alledged email totally contradicts what I have been reliably informed of. I don't mind what people choose to believe, but I would be very sceptical of that and I am sure that if people monitor the 6-15 day forecasts regularly then more times than not the updates will appear more in line with the previous day's data - as today's does.

I have just been reliably informed from a trusted contact that the 6-15 day updates are based on the previous day's 12z models Dave. Don't ask me why its done like this, but for some reason it is. :lol:

I'd say yesterday's. I know a lot of people don't agree, but I am 99% sure those updates are based on the previous days models because they nearly always reflect the previous days output.

Thanks Stuart, no real surprise there given last night's models. Could look rather different tomorrow!