PB22

The theme continues on the 12Z's so far of the milder end to the coming week as we draw up southerlies with an Atlantic origin. Double figure max's are still progged for the south by the weekend http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn15017.html and this seems to be a feasible and consistent theme IMO. Always that bit colder the further north and east you are (as would be expected), but for many temperatures look like returning to near normal values by the weekend. Beyond this, well to be frank, its back to searching for the next cold spell in F.I. The evolution on the UKMO T+144 chart isn't that great IMO, with the high to the east slowly drifting southeastwards, allowing Atlantic weather systems to take over, but I am sure there are plenty of people out there prepared to offer ifs and buts as to what may happen next, i.e. the Azores ridge heading northeastwards to then help the high to the east retrogress thanks to that cut off low over the south at T+144. The problem with that evolution is that by then there won't be an awful lot of deep cold air over the continent with that high over southwest Russia by T+144. GFS T+168 shows the lack of deep cold air (by that I mean uppers below -10C) that I am talking about: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1682.html

The next few days look to be Atlantic based weather for many areas to me but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html If it wasn't Atlantic based, then we'd have no Atlantic weather fronts affecting us! Sure, the S/SE'lies will be chilly, but not as cold as they would be if they had a true continental origin rather than an Atlantic one. Even tomorrow we can trace the origin back to the Atlantic for many parts: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.html If the origin was eastern Europe, it would be cold. Highs of 4 to 6C in the south by the end of the week won't be far from the norm, and by the weekend, we could see double figures in the south! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn15617.html Still, I suppose the Scottish Highlands and Germany hang onto the cold!

On the Suffolk coast, we have light rain showers, a steady thaw continues, its dull and dank and there's slush everywhere. Temperatures at 1.8C and very little happening. What a pathetic end to the cold spell!

Well, looking at the models this morning there can be no denying that the trend to milder conditions taking over later this week is very much evident, and this coming weekend looks set to feel very different to last weekend. Of course, when I say milder, I do mean temperatures returning to nearer normal values rather than the very cold values we have seen recently - temperatures of 5-8C will feel postively balmy though compared to recently! It appears that the trend was picked up last night, although it was dismissed as being over progressive by some quarters. This may still turn out to be the case as there is scope for change, but given the set of charts at T+96 and T+120, it would take a brave person to go against the obvious trend. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Of those charts, the UKMO is the coldest for eastern Britain, whilst the 06Z GFS brings 12C for Cornwall by the weekend: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn13217.html Longer term remains very much open to question, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up stuck in no-man's land with that huge high to the east blocking Atlantic weather systems taking over, with mildish southerlies the outcome.

Perhaps not double digits, but it will certainly be getting back towards nearer normal values: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html Hints that pressure may build in beyond T+168 which may then link up with the high to the east, but thats a long, long way off.

Add me to the list! Quick thaw please!

ECM 12Z going the way of UKMO 12Z it seems: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html Despite the confusion at T+72, there is more agreement from the European models that milder conditions are on the way for next weekend.

Pot, kettle, black comes to mind Ian when you suggest I am being presumptious after your early/mid December thoughts! One could turn it around and suggest those that think the UKMO 12z run is over progressive are also being presumptious. Swings and roundabouts. The ECM will be out shortly, and judging from the London ensembles this morning, a milder outcome by next weekend has to be the favoured option: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

GFS operational 12z run is one of the colder options on the table, so I think we all know where we will be headed during the week and that is to much milder conditions for many areas. Its something when a chart like this is bringing 2C and a steady thaw to this part of the world in January: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn001.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn002.html

Drip drip drip, the thaw continues at a pace here with further rain and sleet showers. Normality should return by the end of the week thankfully!

Yes, been a big thaw going on here since yesterday evening, I'd say we have now lost half of our original snowcover - which stood at 15cm. UKMO 12Z certainly turns the UK much milder by the end of the week: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html At odds with GFS somewhat, but I'd think the milder air will win out for most by the week's end.

Hi Billy, Any heavier precipitation could help bring the temps down a touch, but I wouldn't hold my breath at this stage to be honest. Dew points are forecast to slowly rise today too across our patch: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs098.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs158.html With temperatures around 3C or 4C around the coastline: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs154.html

I'm blaming the North Sea or the Nuclear Power station at Sizewell for my temperature rise, or maybe both!

Much less cold here on the Suffolk coast this morning with temperatures slowly rising. Already at 2.3C, from 1.7C at 7am, and the snow is thawing steadily, aided by recent rain showers.

Very interesting week ahead, and very uncertain times. I would think it will turn somewhat milder in the south later in the week, especially towards the southwest. However, we have that very cold feed coming in off the continent and history shows this can take some shifting. For many areas I would suggest it will remain cold or very cold until midweek at least...

Dry and bright here in east Suffolk. A slight dusting overnight, but no notable addition to the existing cover which stands at 13cm (and is now blowing around in the strong winds).

An awesome UKMO 12z run, by T+144 the high decides to start retrogressing towards Greenland again:

This is what many of the experienced members were saying...get the cold in place, and then Mother Nature will do her bit. Sensational model output again today, and all I would say is expect the unexpected over the coming days. UKMO 12Z coming out, and at T+96 its not too dis-similar to the 12z GFS: By T+120 it is a stunning set-up:

London ECM 12z ensembles: http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html Operational pretty much bang on in terms of temperatures, and its cold until mid-month at least. On the lower end of the scale for winds, may suggest many go for a more potent breeze later in the week.

Wouldn't agree with a longer term downgrade at all Darren. I think you're worrying too much about FI in any case and looking for breakdowns that aren't there! This run is remarkably similar to the ECM with pressure remaining strong to our north and northeast, and undercutting lows going into mainland Europe. Sensational synoptics, and no sign of an end to the cold: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2761.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2762.html Sensational stuff!

One thing I would suggest is that the models may be slowing the evolution somewhat, but it could actually end up with a more potent easterly: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

In the grand scheme of things I'd say they are subtle Matty. As Darren said, it may be a synoptic outlier, the ensembles will tell us more. In any case its only one run.

Some subtle changes, but the general theme is maintained: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1202.html These details will be firmed up over the next few days, there's a lot to happen beforehand!

Tonight's FAX charts: T+96: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif T+120: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif Stunning! Don't worry about the lack of trough activity indicated, its simply too early to predict that sort of thing.

It would be mostly dry but still very cold with that surface flow off the continent. Frosts would still be harsh and days would barely be above freezing - here's the conditions progged over the continent http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21610.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.html