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PB22

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  1. PB22
    Staggering ensembles! To see the op at the top end is almost beyond belief! I look forward to seeing the London ensembles later.
  2. PB22
    I think Darren's opened the new thread, then promptly locked it. Its all getting too much!
  3. PB22
    <_< ECM T+192:
  4. PB22
    Record low temperatures next weekend perhaps?!
  5. PB22
    Interesting, the high to our northwest actually strengthens a touch between T+120 and T+144 - sensational chart again:
  6. PB22
    ECM 12Z on the way out, and is another corker of a run this Friday evening: T+72: T+96: T+120: Would bring a good snow risk to many areas!
  7. PB22
    Temperature was falling like a stone here under clear skies, but in the space of half an hour its turned very foggy! Freezing fog at that and all.
  8. PB22
    Sweet! And that trough following in from the North Sea could bring some fun and games for eastern and southeastern England by Sunday morning too! I can only reiterate what John H says - savour these charts and the next 10 days (or however long it lasts) - we have waited a long, long time for a January like this.
  9. PB22
    Snow shower here in coastal Suffolk has left a light dusting, so a good start to the cold spell!
  10. PB22
    Cheers Karl, Happy New Year! I think its easy to forget some of the charts we actually have in the more reliable timeframe, i.e. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Yet for much of the evening we have mostly been discussing the ECM beyond T+168! Makes a welcome change really!
  11. PB22
    Hi Karl, I wouldn't be too worried about any model output beyond T+144 to be honest, whatever its showing...there will be plenty of twists and turns over the coming days as the cold becomes established.
  12. PB22
    Yes, I got them mixed up! Its confusing having the colours like that, especially trying to read them when its New Year's Eve! All in all, great output tonight, with a nailed on cold spell lasting for at least another week. Happy New Year everyone!
  13. PB22
    Good spot that man! The operational ECM was one of the mildest solutions based on that.
  14. PB22
    Afraid not, those are the ensembles from tonights 12Z ECM run.
  15. PB22
    ECM ensembles for Reading: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html Operational was not without support, the control was milder...has ECM picked up on something new tonight?
  16. PB22
    Those are yesterday's ensembles Steve, when they have updated they will have (Startdatum: 2009123112) 01 Jan above the graphs on them.
  17. PB22
    I don't think anyone would be in any position to complain if the ECM 12z came off because before the breakdown most places will have seen a sensational spell of weather, unheard of in previous Januaries. I do find the 12z run hard to believe though, as to how we end up at this by T+216: By the way, the ECM freebie today is the Reading ensembles, so that will be handy for when they come out later: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html
  18. PB22
    Its come to something when a cold and snowy run isn't greeted with joy! But yes, I do see where you are coming from Dave. The longer term prospects on the ECM 12z aren't as good, but then again this cold spell won't last forever. Its just one run though and in the meantime there's still lots of fun and games to be had. I'd advise coldies not to look at the ECM post T+168: T+192: Wonder where this one will stand on the ensembles later.
  19. PB22
    Pressure building over Scandinavia by T+168, with more snow showers for the east:
  20. PB22
    More snow at T+144: Be interesting to see what happens next...
  21. PB22
    ECM T+96: ECM T+120: A bitter north/northeasterly blast which would bring a good chance of snow for almost everyone as troughs would undoubtedly develop in that perishing flow.
  22. PB22
    Here comes the ECM 12Z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm721.html For those worrying about dry and cold, all I will say is that in order to get snow, you have to have the cold in place first. Get the cold established, and then who knows what may suddenly crop up.
  23. PB22
    A frigid run from the 12z UKMO...there's barely any change in the evolution between T+120 and T+144: T+120: T+144: Fascinating, and very cold, times ahead.
  24. PB22
    A big thank you from me as well John. Having formerly worked with you on the forecast team, it was always a great pleasure to work with you and I certainly learnt a lot from you, and wouldn't be where I am today without your words of wisdom. All the best for the future mate.
  25. PB22
    Whats Formula 1 got to do with weather?! Stunning ECM, if that came off much of the south-east would be snowbound. ECM has also been very consistent over recent days in its output.
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