cheeky_monkey
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Posts posted by cheeky_monkey
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Hi, if you look at the winter CET (Dec, Jan, Feb average) for the last 20 years (1988/89 - Present) I think you would be hard pressed to find a run of 20 consecutive years in history with a higher average (one for Mr Data perhaps!!!).
I agree that we will always have variability and of course there were mild winters and zonal synoptics even during the mini ice age pre 1850. What I'm saying is that the synoptics which delivered very cold winters such as 1947/1963 seem more and more unlikely nowadays due to the northlerly migration of the PFJ. Regards.
i dont disagree with that..im just saying you cant blame this weeks failure of a large high on modern synoptics entirely.
also i think this so called even larger teapot is also accompanied by modern weather...in the 1920s the annual cets were lower than now...where as then only winters were markedly milder..today all seasons are warmer.
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I know what you mean but the term does sum up our weather (particularly winter) over the last 20 years quite well. It basically means that no matter what the teleconnections or drivers are, our winter synoptics are nearly always mild/zonal.
For example the 1060+mb high currently over Finalnd/W Russia would not have been brushed aside so easily by the jet a couple of decades ago, in fact a large HP cell of this nature tended to stick around for up to a month with an e'ly flow maintained over the uk.
thts not true...this has happened on many occasions before...just that no one remembers because it wasnt news worthy or nobody cared...but if u trawl through the charts for the last 100 winters the scenario being played out now has happened many times...so its not something that is a result of modern day synoptics.
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I'll add my recollections of Feb 1991 firstly I think, may come back with some 78/79, mid-eighties, 87 and 95-96.
Feb 1991 - the 7th iirc, might have been the 8th? I was due to travel from the South Coast where I was at the time to Surrey to visit a friend. The morning was bitterly cold and there were flurries of snow around but I really didn't anticipate much more than the standard 'chilly day' fayre.
By the time I had got ready and ordered a taxi to the train station the snow was starting to pile in fairly heavily, by the time I reached the station it was at about 3 cms and the windchill was intense.
I waited around 2 hours for a train to London to arrive watching snow fall and trying to keep warm along with several other people, we had formed something of a mutual support group in the attempt to suspend disbelief in just how bitter and snowy it was for the South Coast of England.
The journey to London took approximately 3 hours (with mobile phones not being an option really back then I had no idea if my friend was still expecting me!) and I was standing most of the way. Caught a connection in London and arrived in Egham perhaps another 3 hours later. The weather there was something else - still the raw Easterly with frequent and heavy snow - I was on foot by now, it was dark and I was frankly terrified - however a call from the first phone box I found (I had called when I arrived in London with an 'en route' to be told I shouldn't have bothered turning out, lol) brought out the troops to find me - there is something terribly comforting about being found. However the abiding memory is of the final trek up a back lane to my friend's - the snow was thick and very deep, there was a field behind as well and after I had warmed up (took a long time!) several of us went out for a midnight snow fight. The next day was spent messing around in the snow too and it was I would say a good level 6 inch covering throughout with drifts of over a foot - not bad for the outskirts of London.
Its a favoured memory not only because it sums up what a fool I am when I get an idea in my head and refuse to give up but because its probably the last 'true' snow cover I recall - 95-96 never seemed as deep in the East to me and these one day wonders we have do not compare. That, and it was genuinely bitter - that deep and abiding cold that you know the moment you feel it, totally different to any 'chilly' day we may have, a sort of cold that is like a treasured 'feeling' - unforgettable and something you miss until you have it again, or rather you realise how much you miss when it seems totally out of reach.
i remember playing football in the universites league in chelmsford on 6th february 1991 blowing a blizzard...the game was abandoned after 35 mins...howver both teams were decked out in uderrclothes beneath their kits...ive always prided my self on being quite hardy..but even i was wearing gloves..2 shirts and tracksuit bottoms under my shorts...the game it self was tremendously diificulty, not becuase of the snow..but the pitch was frozen solid underneath..it was almost wat i would describe as palying litterally on an ice rink..it was impossible to run or control the ball or do anything...but the worst was normally when your playing sport inthe cold you warm up quickly and forget the weather, but this day no matter what you did there was such a huge windchill with low sub zero temperatures it was all you could do just to try and keep warm. I think the ref realised it was so brutally cold tht he abandoned the game..when we got on the bus and listen to the radio..they gave a current temp in norwich of -7c..plus gale force winds and snow!..ill never forget tht day..or the spell of feb 91...been nothing like it since!
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The only months that I think are totally impossible to get a CET as low as that SB are Feb, May & Nov. I also think it's going to be tricky to get the August CET as low as 16.2, but obviously possible just tricky IMO. I am thinking that the lowest possible Annual CET for this year will be a 10.6* with the highest being 11.0*, although I wouldn't rule out higher than that.
well the last 3 augusts have been 16.2, 16.1 and 15.4...so not difficult at all!
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Optimus Prime;
That is not entirely true that a cold December often leads to a cold winter. It certainly wasn't in 2001-02, and Feb & Mar 1997 were very mild after a cold December, and the same applied in Feb/Mar 1945. Dec 1992 was also quite cold but Jan and Feb were not. Feb 1982 was also above average after the very cold Dec, and so was Feb 1977. Even after the very cold December of 1950 both the Jan & Feb 1951 were not particularly cold.
I will also point out to you that 1968-69 was also a very unusual winter, in that Feb was so cold after a mild Jan (4.5*C colder). Looking at the records it is very rare for a cold February to occur after a January that is much above average and the drop in CET from Jan/Feb 1969 is among the top five biggest drops on record. Only 1969 and 1983 are examples of where a mild January has been followed by a very cold February. Many of the other big drops in CET from Jan to Feb (4*C+) have occurred when a very severe February has followed a cold January, like 1947.
you cant quote 1945 simply because janaury 45 was very cold and snowy..and mar is a spring month..so essentially 2 out of 3 months were well below normal.
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Still, anything can happen with the British weather. The winter of 1946/1947 didn't really get going until the last week in January 1947:
ive heard this quote every january for as many jans as i can remember....
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Now i was out at the retail park yesterday evening..whilst stuck in traffic i noticed daffodils about to come into bloom. i Have never seen this before the new year let alone before chrimbo. It has been very frosty in the last week or so..and much frostier this autumn and early winter than last year any reason for this??
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i missed the nov comp cus i was out of the country and had no internet access...but im back for this months punt..lets see strong la nina..minimumsun spot activity...all adds up 2 a mild... 6.2c... looking at past decembers with a similar set up.
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if we get cold pooling to our ne we can expect a southerly jet to pull in the beast from the east, but in the even larger teapot this is more likely to collapse from the onslaught of a northely jet set in motion by high sst of the eastern seaboard and cycloniges in the GIN meaning that winter is over but IMO there is still all to play for......How many points plaease?
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for me it will be interesting to see how the last 6 months of 2007 compare to the last 6 months of 2006..and the last six months of each year during the last decade..with regard to temps.
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no its not for Toronto i aint going there to 2011 iam going there in winter though and yes its metcheck with others
you gotta get into canada first
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strange how oct 1974 had a similar ending and was followed by the 2nd mildest december of the 20th century only being beaten by dec 1934!...pure coincidence?
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looking at the stats there it only proves that the winter 95-96 wasnt all it is cracked up to be...in terms of the 20th century nothing too special no real prolonged cold or widespread snow events...i always think this winter is over hyped in terms of how cold it really was.
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Note in the report of two people successfully crossing the Sound (between Zealand and Sweden) on ice. Can be seen on the map link.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/europe/denmark_pol99.jpg
One point of interest is that there have been only 8 sub zero CET Februarys but half of them have occurred since the second world war (1947, 1956, 1963 and 1986). It is remarkable to think that from 1659-1946, there were 4 sub zero Februarys in 287 years and there have been 4 in the last 60 years.
yeah i have noticed that januaries were much colder than february in those times!
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im leaving the uk and settling in windsor ontario..i will read your site with interest.
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yeah me 2 ..i ben away for a long weekend..jus got home..anyways 10.4c please
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I think that October will continue the trend that September started, in being only slightly above average, thus my prediction is 10.7C, 0.3C above average however i may raise this closer to the time to around the 11.4C mark.
I'm expecting rainfall to be around average, and a very easterly month, with some slow moving north easterly depressions suppressing maxima.
as i said b4 and i say it again..you should only be allowed one guess no more!!!
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And we all know what a warm winter followed
47 -48 was indeed one of the mildest winters of the decade...lol
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Surely can';t count changing your prediction mid month. :huh: :huh:
exactly..just like quiz shows..we should only except your 1st answer!
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im sliding in with a late 14.5c please
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i just love the way ppl take the moral high ground on environmental issues and patronise the masses by sayin they are thick ignorant and arrogant! because they dont comply with your views or actions.
im just a synic and prolly too old to change..im of the same opinion that if the chinese indians and amercians are gonna sit on their backsides and do nothing why the hell should i?
You need to pass the current and older generations by and educate the children of the world into the concept of a greener planet
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i dont see the point of deriding somebodies memories if you didnt experience the same time yourself..or by throwing out stats about global temperatures etc..if you were not there yourself dont get on your high horse!...right im off back 2 bed
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Yes, sorry Shuggee.
The weather has certainly wrongfooted most of us here - perhaps we should have paid more attention to the historical tendency for unstable patterns to persist till the end of summer once established by mid-July (the St Swithin's day effect).
I still think it may stabilize at the end of the month and into September; but even if it does, I doubt that it will pull us much above the 71-00 average. I'd go for bang-on if I were guessing now - 16.2. Which is not what I thought two weeks ago, indeed I was cursing for not having had the time to change my guess from 16.8 to 17.4.
Tamara & VillagePlank (& others?) may live to regret making late upward changes of a degree and more to the low/mid-17s. As a matter of interest, did anyone lower their guess in the final day or two...apart, that is, from TinyBill, who broke all records, past and probably future, in reducing his pitch by eight and a half degrees, from 24 to 15.6!!?
i think u should only be allowed one guess and forced to stick with it...not keep changing jus before the month starts!
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yeah but how many milder than average winters have followed a wet autumn?
Media cold-snap forecasts & hype
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
any one see the joke that is gmtv this morning?....did their usual of going on about snow with reporters in different locations etc...and the guy stood next to a big snow plough in all the get up..saying how to avoid all the choas on the roads...and what a fantastic job theywere doing keeping the roads clear..yet where he was there was no snow..stood like a lemon with this great machine with not a flake of snow to be seen...does make you laugh..just makes you wonder what they would do if it really do snow for real?