cheeky_monkey
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Posts posted by cheeky_monkey
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just a quick note about the above very intersting read.
as a prequel to nov 1703..sept and october were very cold not very warm as u suggest with cet of 10.6 and 7.8 respectively..maybe that had something to do with the intensity of the storm that november???
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That posotive anomoly will most likely grow over the next week however i expect that region to be dominated by northerlies until the end of the month afterward, with sea ice begining to form around Iceland.
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thats a bit of a contradiction..if the +ve anomly were to grow over the next week or so then it would be mighty difficult for sea ice to form around iceland even with sustained northerlies?
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i remember it well..it was my friends wedding the day before. we drove back 2 essex on the friday and it threw it down..when we drove back on the sunday it was fantastic very warm shades on windows down all the way.
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The Baltic Sea is shallow in comparision to most other seas and oceans and therefore more susceptible to temperatures above the surface, i.e it warms and cools quicker.
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spot on..the north sea and baltic are very shallow seas in comparison to the major oceans and can warm and cool very rapidly dependant on weather conditions....for example in early march 1987 temps in the southern north sea were only 2c above freezing after a cold january.
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here in sw england dry warm..not hot..relatively sunny..only 3 thunder days..overall a good summer IMO..very pleasent.
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lets put it this way you would measure it in feet not inches..as i said b4 i lived in exeter in 1978 and i note that mr data has published an artical that exeter airport recored a level fall of 34cm on the 19th febuary 1978 which is over a foot in one day and this fell on top of existing deep snow cover.... obviously with a gale blowing drifts in my area alone must have been close to 10-15ft deep, i would also expect much heavier falls were recorded on the surrounding hills.
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to be honest february 1991 was the last decent snow event i have seen in terms of depth and length of time it stayed around...so its nearly 15years and counting.
still feb 1978 was on another level altogther though!!
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chelmsford is the county town of essex it is between colchester and london, about 15 miles morth west of basildon.
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dont you mean january 1982? dont remember any in jan 1981.
dec 1981 and the first 3weeks of jan 1982 were very cold and snowy.
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If my area had a perfect set-up,it would have to be a ENE wind,which is cold,it travels across a mild Noth sea and causes large laspe rates which encourages snow showers to form.southern Essex does well when the showers form in the thames Estuary due to large laspe rates with the wind being a ENE.This occured twice last year and both times it gave 5cms,off course this is a tiny amount in comprasion to past events,however if the ground was colder and al lthe showers from the previous day had settled,the total amount may well have been upwards of 20cms.
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i lived in chelmsford for 13 yrs..weatherwise its a great place to be when a winter easterly kicks in 1986,87 and 91 were paricularly good.. i remember playing football for the college in a game in feb 1991 that was abandoned after 30 mins there were blizzrd like conditions the snow was fine and powerdary..trouble was the ground was frozen solid and dangerous..anyway driving back on the minibus the radio gave the temp for colchester as being -6c god knows what the windchill was on the pitch that day!!...it is the only time i have worn gloves and leggings under my kit! as did both teams that day.
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i was 11 yrs old at the time and living in exeter.
what i remember of feb 1978 was that it was very cold in the first cpl weeks with snow showers, then on the 15th the weather changed and i went to school that mrning in heavy rain..it rained all day until about 4.30 when it slowly began to turn to sleet, by 6 it was snowing heavily. the next day the 16th was my brothers brithday and we woke to find a deep covering of snow and clear blue skies.
it snowed again that afternoon and again the next day. on the sat the weather forcasters were predicting severe weather and blizzards and sure enough by lunctime the snow had started the winds picked up ..id never seen horizontal snow before. needless to say by the next morning my dads car was completly buried in the driveway and our bird table in our backgarden which was at least 6ft tall was lost under a drift against next doors fence.
what i didnt realise at the time was that i was witnessing something special..a blizzard/snowfall that has never been matched since in my experience even though i have lived most of my life since 1982 in essex and seen the snows of the mid 80s, jan 87 and feb 91 but none of those have come close to that week in feb 1978.
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can u please post a link to a site that has the met office defintion of a severe winter of a cet below 3c at the moment i am having trouble located one?
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i dont agree about the definition of a severe winter...simply because the defintion of a severe winter month is one with a cet of below 2c..therefore by your thinking you could have severe winter winter with no severe months in it!
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i think the way you have classified those winters are misleading.
should be:
6c and over = very mild
5c-6c = mild
4-5c = average
3-4c = rather cold
2-3c = cold
below 2c = severe
plus the average for 1971-2000 which i assuming you are using would certainly not been average pre 20th century and would have been classed as mild..IMO.
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exeter 1.15pm
temp 15.5c
full cloud cover
very heavy rain
no wind
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january 1990.. i was literally blown over walking back from college!
also the devastation of october 1987.. both this and 1990 i was living in essex...althought in 1987 the storm happened overnight (and i slept throught it)..the amount of damage the next morning was amazing to see!
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exeter - 2pm
dry
clear blue skies
sunny
no wind
temp 29c
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exeter 10pm
dry clear skies
no wind
temp 26c
temp top out at 30.2c
similar day forcast tomorrow maybe a degree higher we will see.
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exeter 11.30 am
dry
clear skies
strong sunshine
no wind
temp 28c
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Hitlers campaign against Russia also suffered because of the weather. He took the decision to invade in June 1941 on the advice from his meteorologist who, not very scientifically, deemed that Russia had experienced 2 consecutive harsh winters and was unlikely to sustain a third.
Hitler believed that Russia would offer little resistance and hoped to be successful by November.
Initially the Russian resistance was far in excess of anything the Germans had anticipated. Then the winter of 1941/42 was one of the worst ever in Russia and millions of Germans died as a direct result of it. Hitler was forced to hold position and basically wait out the winter.
Come the Spring, the German forces were very depleted and unable to win over the determined Russians. Hitler eventually withdrew from Russia on the 31st January 1943 following another very cold start to that particular winter.
It is probably fair to say that had the winter of 1941/42 not been a harsh one then I would be typing this im Deutsch instead of English
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thats not entirely correct..it was the autumn rains that stopped the german drive on moscow...the fact that the germans hadnt been equipped with winter clothing was more to do with negelgence and the expectency of a german victory before winter, this was more telling than the actual weather conditions ( although extemely cold).
The germans did not withdraw from russia on 31st jan 1943 (where that came from i have no idea?) their eventual retreat had nothing to do with weather conditions, but the ever growing strength of the red army.
what is interesting is that a switch in weather conditions at the end of jan 1945 probably prolonged the war in europe by 3 months, jan had been very cold in europe then literally overnight 31/1st feb 1945 there was a massive thaw which stalled the russian attack on berlin at a piont when the red army was only 50km from the city and poised to strike.
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wot about the kamikaze "divine wind" that destroyed the mongol invasion fleet of japan in 1281..a typhoon struct the invading fleet of kulbai khan and saved japan from destruction by the mongols.
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exeter 7pm
thunder and lightning
very dark
torrential downpours as well
wind light to moderate breeze
temp 20c
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Exeter 4pm
rain and thunder now occuring nothing on the scale of last week tho.
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exeter 1.50 pm
temp 25.5c
short sharp shower
wind has dropped to light breeze.
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Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
28 October 2005
The prospect of a cold winter is currently the subject of significant speculation amid reports that forecasters expect the coldest winter since 1963.
The Met Office’s winter forecast does not make these extreme claims but does suggest that the coming winter will be colder and drier than normal. However it is too early to be specific about the timing and severity of any individual cold spells.
Most of the winters in the last ten years have been relatively mild. This perhaps gives the impression that this type of winter is now 'normal' meaning a colder winter would be more noticeable.
The Met Office winter forecast is based on techniques which, for the broad weather patterns across Europe, are correct about two times in three.