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Everything posted by Methuselah
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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A possible source of some impressive convection, given a favourable atmospheric temperature profile? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There was some snow, in the East, on this day! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes please, God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last-chance Saloon for the swimwear? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not in any way certain of that, Fred. Though I wish I was!...It's the current tendency towards 'blockiness' that's got me interested, more than anything else... -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And here's an example of 'only surface cold': If I remember things correctly, it was sub-zero both day and night, under widespread freezing fog? PS: One's memory ain't what it once was! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They do actually say 'particularly [not exclusively] over northern hills...' See? I told you I was clutching at straws! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Then again, it might simply (I'm clutching at straws here!) reflect the models' uncertainty over the direction of attack? Barring slider lows, I can only envisage low-level snow, in the South, coming either straight from the Arctic or from the nearby continent...this early in the season? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed NWS, my next best option, should a beast be either delayed or abandoned, is dense, persistent freezing fog, under an inversion... -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bugger! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And this is the point, with a huge pool of cold getting into Europe, that I look for some retrogression. Or, failing that, for the possible GH to take over... -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When I was wittering on about the first attack of real cold coming in from the north or northwest, rather than the east, this is what I meant...Not that it'll happen either, of course... -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A case of boom, boom, bin it, innit? -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Methuselah replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Apart from yet more bloody fireworks, it's been zip, zilch, nada! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye folks, the only way is up! And Fred's 'snow by month's end' is definitely on the cards... -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is that a trend, damianslaw, or is it down to 'random' fluctuation? 1962, '68, 69 and '70 all had cold and snow, at some time, during the period spanning late December to early January...At the time, I thought I'd found a trend. Now though, I can see that I hadn't. -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
TBH Sleety, I can't find any evidence that warm, cold or indifferent Octobers/Novembers have the slightest impact on the following winters...Not saying that that's the case globally, just that NH weather patterns might not be too dependent on what this wee pinprick of an island experiences, through October and November...? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not a bad finish...Screaming potential! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well you don't, so I don't get your point, feb: we have what we have? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A pattern that's notoriously hard to shift, once established... And where do things go from here? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I tend to agree with you, Tim, hence my liberal use of italics...Though, surely, we can't remain in this apparent 'no man's land' for ever? -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Methuselah replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Morning peeps! After some notable wind and rain overnight, today has kick-off dry and sunny...moderate SW breeze and 8.3C. Will we miss today's showers? Who knows! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know it's at T+384 but, I think, there might be a small trend (toward some sort of favourably-orientated Atlantic high) developing later in the month? Nothing definite of course, at such a distance, but teeny-weeny hints of a possible attack from the northwest...Nowt to lose any sleep over yet, IMO. At the same time, however, any major advection of deep cold into Russia seems to have been 'put on hold' for the time being...? All change with the 06Z no doubt! -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something very much like that, aye...Fred? -
Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could it possibly be worse?