Methuselah

Indeed Fred. I think we might be seeing a similar long-term evolution?

Not at all inspiring, in the short-term, but the vortex looks to be continually misshapen... Any real cold before month's end is now looking less likely, IMO:

It's almost here - the run to end all runs! Anything like this will do nicely: And what's more - a thread dedicated entirely to THFC!

TBH I think this whole storm-naming malarkey is a load of nonsense; 'a vigorous depression with possibly storm-force winds' always sufficed, the past. So I don't know what purpose naming things has...And, the way the Daily Excreta's going, it'll be naming Storm Zachariah this side of Christmas!

I don't think the question is when or if, but where from, it's: which direction will the initial attack of cold come? I know we all tend to concentrate on Scandi (as HP in that region tends to be long-lived) but really, in all honesty, I thinks it's more probable that an initial surge will come from the north or northwest... Of course a Beast From The East is our ultimate goal, but, IMO, a broad north to northwesterly flow with ridging in the Atlantic can be a good way of getting deep cold into Europe and Scandinavia, thus setting things up for further down the line...? I don't pretend to know where the cold will come or when it'll come, but (for some reason) I am more confident than usual that it will come. IMO, the operative word this year is PATIENCE!

All change. Again! As hope from the east appears to fade, that from the north-west seems to increase...? The third alternative might be best left unvisited.

And thisun's not bad, either!

Which leads us towards the $64,000 question: will tonight's JMA be anything like last night's JMA?

The GFS appears to agree?

I'm not so sure, BB: for there to be any chance of snow, in lowland Southern England, cold air must get pretty far south at times. And, IMO, a jet on a more southerly track (than usual) would achieve that...? Then again, so might the scenario QS suggests...?

It'll do wonders for the annual sunshine total...

What do you expect, at that range? An hour-by-hour detailed forecast?

Dry, sunny and 12.7C. November days don't come much better than this.

Could we be headed for something like this? I hope so!

I'm starting to worry at the consequences of a dry winter; though there's been enough rain, since mid-August, to keep things green, I bet one needn't dig down too far to find the dry? I think we need a pretty drastic top-up...?

I guess that like most of these ecological situations, it'll be the specialists (or niche species) and not the generalists that'll feel the adverse effects of acidification first. They are, after all, the species that are the least resilient to any sudden change in their respective environments?

No. It's not.

You're right, cold at some point (perhaps past the end of model-reliability IMO) is always going to be somewhere or other - it's winter. Nearly! My allusion to the CFS was not intended to highlight any one model in particular, but to how accurate models (any models) might be, should they go out to much farther than about one month ahead. Given that the CFS is the only really long-range model I can view (and is, IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard) I used it as a reference point.

Fair point, feb...But, were the ECM to go out too far, it'd be in direct competition with the always-correct CFS. So, I guess it'd always show cold?

I guess we all have our own reasons for spending umpteen years indulging in a ritual hunt for snow...Well, my own was caused by waking-up on this particular morning:

Swearbox, now! A question: what's with the idea that one cannot be hunting for cold and be realistic, at the same time?

A fantastic chart indeed...But as we know, the more spectacular these 'time tunnel' charts become, the chances of verification shrink toward those of anything coming from Mars...A million-to-one, they say...?

Could have been the cause of the dense freezing fog I think I can remember?

Hey Mok, there's a song in there: I fought the Noro and the Noro won?

Congrats, Lauren...