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Methuselah

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Everything posted by Methuselah

  1. Methuselah
    Thank you, Sam. Met Eireann will always be best-placed to predict Eireann's weather, IMO. Just as the Scottish forecasters are the best at forecasting Scotland's weather.
  2. Methuselah
    Which, unless I am mistaken (stranger things have happened!) adds credence to Nick L's suggestion that -20C might be achieved, somewhere?
  3. Methuselah
    Okay guys. But, in all the places I've stayed (MK, EA, Kent, NW Highlands, Fife) forecasts for snow have been rewarded the the dreaded rain. And, I must admit, failed snowfall is one life's great sickeners! What does the Irish Met say?
  4. Methuselah
    Come on, peeps; the current situation is extremely marginal? Imagine what would happen had the MetO issued umpteen red warnings for heavy snowfalls, only for most low-lying locations to experience the usual marginal mixture of rain, sleet or wet snow? Netweather Forum Meltdown? IMO, ice is the only certainty?
  5. Methuselah
    I tend to agree, EES. I'm sure that (unless my eyes were deceiving me) I could see lightning in MK, all the way from over here...The air was exceptionally clear at the time, mind you.
  6. Methuselah
    All that activity in knocker's woodshed?
  7. Methuselah
    With the 2m, 850 hpa and DP temps that are currently being modeled, I'd guess that it'll all come down to a combination of wind-speed and rate of precipitation; which will, of course, vary from place to place...IMO, it's a classically marginal situation?
  8. Methuselah
    lol I'm only asking the question; I can be as wrong as anyone, too!
  9. Methuselah
    That's true...But to what degree (pardon the pun) will the ice-day potential be down to anticyclonic temperature inversions? I can recall a day, in 1979, that started-out at -18C; the minute the wind broke the inversion it was warm enough for sleety rain...
  10. Methuselah
    Well if we couldn't, what would we do? Just so long as the 'arguments' are both model-related and polite...
  11. Methuselah
    Let's just stick to what the models are suggesting?
  12. Methuselah
    You might be being a tad optimistic there, Nick? In the 20+ years I stayed near Loch Ness, I think that -20C was only exceeded in 1995/96, 2000/2001 and 2009/10...IMO, it takes a combination of very could uppers (sub -10?) and deep snowcover to achieve minima like that. Is the upcoming spell sufficiently exceptional?
  13. Methuselah
    Come on, folks? This is the MOD thread' it ain't a dating agency...Weather models!
  14. Methuselah
    IMO, the only mechanism capable of providing proper snowfall, with the sort of uppers predicted, is evaporative cooling; and, for that, winds need be very light or calm...
  15. Methuselah
    Not to worry - I suspect something untoward lurks within the woodshed.
  16. Methuselah
    Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeease...discuss model output?
  17. Methuselah
    I agree, Iceberg - an easterly could very well be just around the corner? It may not show up on any of the synoptic models just now, but it's certainly consistent with the MetO's own (and others') late winter-early spring suggestions... The blocking high is also looking far more stubborn than was, at first, predicted...Watch this space!
  18. Methuselah
    Come on folks - show some respect: bisection of rabbits is not allowed on netweather. Keep to the models, please...
  19. Methuselah
    Indeed peeps - the anomalies are the best rough guide to the next 10 days that there is...
  20. Methuselah
    The last time I heard, momentum (p) = mass(m) x velocity(v) (p=mv)..And that, IMO, drives the synoptics. Synoptic forecasts cannot drive momentum?
  21. Methuselah
    So, phasing notwithstanding, we agree - at the moment, Arctic air-masses have insufficient momentum to take control??
  22. Methuselah
    Is it Nick? Or is it more matter of whether-or-not the Arctic (whether of maritime or Continental origin) air has sufficient momentum? Later in the year, I think it will have; but, now, it could well be a matter of our needing two (maybe three?) bites at the cherry?
  23. Methuselah
    I have no doubt that you are right in what you say, Redwood - and, of course, this is the Model thread. But, how can we possibly know which model, if any, will call it right?
  24. Methuselah
    Not for the first time, this is not the thread for discussing MetO updates. Please follow the guidelines.
  25. Methuselah
    From a combination of what the models are currently suggesting (very cold conditions in Scandinavia and eastern Europe), the usual late El Nino signals plus fading memories of previous years, something coming from the east looks like a good bet, to me. So, don't panic, should nothing definitive show-up on today's predictions...It's nae 'game over' - it could be game on!
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