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Everything posted by Methuselah
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Not to worry, John...RIP, a great man!- 750 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
The severity has certainly caught me by surprise...I just no-one perishes...- 750 replies
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Severe Storm System & Arctic Blast Thursday 5th Onwards
Methuselah replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Thank God we've got the Met Office! -
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14
Methuselah replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But, we are only 5 days' into winter? -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Just seen Wells, on iPlayer...Water in the road and another 1.5 m to go till high tide! I hope I've got that wrong...- 750 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Bugger! I hope everyone's okay...- 750 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
I hope all you stay safe...- 750 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Apparently, we are about 20 m outside the flood-zone!- 750 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13
Methuselah replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Just caught the squall: very narrow but quite lively.- 750 replies
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Apparently - I assume - some folks believe that science can be invalidated by its practitioners' voting habits?
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Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
Methuselah replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
'Other experts' - Jonathan Powell! -
Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2
Methuselah replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What a Panza! -
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye Shed, Ian's suggestions does seem to be becoming rather more likely...Anywho, looking on the bright side, we'll have a week or two in which to tidy our toy-cupboards! -
http://thesiweather.com/2013/12/03/1215-pm-global-sea-ice-areal-extent-at-highest-level-since-1994-southern-hemisphere-continues-on-a-record-run-for-this-time-of-year/ True, false or 'information' snow?
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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It was also wrong! -
Then again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_xZeFLN00w
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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Of course you can, Ian - which was my point: the weather can, and does, do the unexpected? -
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tbh SW, I'd give it little credence even if it were the ECM...Even with all three main models in agreement, things still often go pear-shaped. -
And I forgot to ask the obvious question: has anyone ever fed 1962's data into a major model and seen what happens?
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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed Ian...But, as with 1962-esque developments, how likely is to actually evolve like that? -
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ah'll be back! -
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's Mugly's ghost... -
^^Watts Up With That!
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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think that that's where the validity, in citing previous winters' charts, comes into play...Given, say, the a chart for 3/12/62 (and somehow not knowing it was such!) how many of us would be able to make an accurate 10-15 day forecast? Air is a fluid, and can't really be compartmentalized into convenient blocks - not without encountering the obvious pitfalls associated with gross over-simplification, anyway... God, I don't what it's going to be like in 10 days' time! -
Indeed...This'll be the 51st year of waiting. Every December, it seems, folks are rather too eager (with varying degrees of sophistication) to shoehorn anticyclones into 'desirable' locations...But surely, when dealing with anything chaotic, the list of 'if thens' just gets too long and/or convoluted to make sense?? I'm sure I could post a bunch of charts from 1962, and then claim that it shows how things 'could' evolve this time...But, in truth, it wouldn't do that at all, IMO; it would merely show what did happen, precisely once.