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Matthew.

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Everything posted by Matthew.

  1. Matthew.
    Here in the north east it felt the least stormiest since 2012 apart from last year
  2. Matthew.
    That massively depends on windchill though also or on the other hand if your in a col etc with high dew points. There’s a huge difference
  3. Matthew.
    The thing is the wind felt very dry but incredibly cold. The thermometer said 5.5c. Yes my 4 layers were no match for the wind from the east
  4. Matthew.
    All this mention of wanting an easterly. I went down to the east coast sea front today and all I’ll say is I wasn’t their long
  5. Matthew.
    I always think stick to the models 5-7 days out and watch the story unfold. The rest no one knows until the next models run come out and the general consensus
  6. Matthew.
    Yes I think I agree. In 2012 we got a little nearer to the prize but not for long. I remember it being 1.5c on the east coast with leaden skies with snow grains.
  7. Matthew.
    Prognosis for this winter is the best since 2012/13. Can the second half see something special to match that winter or even better it? Even though 2014/15 saw a lot of polar westerly flow the jet was not as meridional and that’s a big plus on our side going forward
  8. Matthew.
    I think the same was said last night January I think the GFS will slowly come on board in the next couple of days
  9. Matthew.
  10. Matthew.
    One thing what is puzzling me is how are we getting all this blocking to the NE with zonal winds are 52m/s although they do drop off to 40m/s in a week but still
  11. Matthew.
    Yes agree. I can’t see it falling apart now with UKMO supporting the ecm. A different winter this time you can tell
  12. Matthew.
    Personally I think chance plays a large part to where the high ends up but any of these outcomes is possible in my eyes. This winter has been colder from the outset with a diving trough scenario so maybe ECM could be onto something just maybe this time
  13. Matthew.
    If we’re being pedantic was 2017s figure to 2 decimal places lower?
  14. Matthew.
    I’m guessing that’s the coldest CET for December since 2010 then
  15. Matthew.
    The ECM has some significant cold Saturday through Monday pilling in. Snow showers for the east I would imagine pushing inland on a very cold Neasterly
  16. Matthew.
    Just had a late look at the ecm and my oh my is winter coming? Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. Just a thought but could this east Pacifica La Niña be helping the meridional jet along with low solar. Who knows?
  17. Matthew.
    It’s been a cold quite snowy month in more northern areas. I think you have to go back to March 2013 to find the last time this happened
  18. Matthew.
    Agree. The uppers are marginal for snow in the reliable though. Admit it’s an interesting pattern going forward though.
  19. Matthew.
    Uppers getting into the -8 territory once again from next late Friday for more of the country so snow will be back for many
  20. Matthew.
    I keep asking myself is this winter much different to 2014/15? The only thing I can think of is the troughs are having a nw-sw tilt at times with more amplification to the west in general so giving marginal snow events with the jet a touch more meridionel
  21. Matthew.
    As a guess I would say pressure hasn’t been as high in Southern Europe this winter, since winter 2012/13 which is helping it drop more south plus positive pressure has been stacking up to the west of us
  22. Matthew.
    Well those in the south Pennines should be getting there sledges ready
  23. Matthew.
    Latest cfs long range goes for a close to summer like April. Maybe one to watch
  24. Matthew.
    There will always be cold winters coming along imo. Just rarer is all. Same with dry hot summers
  25. Matthew.
    I think 2024 up to 2027 might be a big one. The multiples imply this 1916/17, 33/34, 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 95/96, 09/10.
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