Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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Some crazy scenes from the SE after torrential rain on the bbc. It's nice to see a good storm but being flooded is a completely different kettle of fish. Hopefully quite localised events.
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9 hours ago, iapennell said:
but the cold North Atlantic compared to normal combined with less ice and snowcover in the European Arctic suggested to me that higher pressure was much more likely to form SW or west of Britain.
The high pressure to the Sw has looked many times to influence the Uk only to back off nearer the time. All the way from late May the MetO were saying settled conditions would spread north in their long range forecast but something stopped it getting too far north
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The Models seem to be doing well this week for next week. Much agreement in this Ridge of HP influencing Uk weather for next week. A marked difference in last weeks forecast which was clumsy and a bit of a dogs dinner imo.
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33 minutes ago, markyo said:
the pollen levels are crackers
Yes ive really picked up on that since the wind changed direction on Sunday. I thought i was going to escape this year
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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM follows suit, ridge of high pressure holds on throughout. Ties in nicely with the metO thinking, better the further S and E you head. The N/W at risk of slightly more unsettled conditions, but not desperately so.
Yes nothing to cry about at all for the next 10 days from the GFS and ECM. Ridges of HP at least.
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8 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:
Back from a nice weekend away
15.5 to 15.6 now looking likely (after corrections)
The models are starting to show more of an Azores influence from the weekend so a higher CET might be on the cards yet.
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The thing about June is the sun has dissapeared! If I was to put the 3 ingredients in order to make a good summer it has to be:
1.Sunshine
2.Temperature
3.Rainfall
We've had 4 cloudless ish days here but cloudy the rest out of 20. In contrast at the other end of the scale is April 2015...12 cloudless days and many partly cloudy days also. Let's hope July or August surprises us!
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Can't complain too much at the GFS 12z for next week. Things fairly summery. Nothing special but pleasant weather on the whole.
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Just when I thought the 'dice' was perhaps beginning to fall wrong the charts above do offer a ray of hope for July in terms of a Summer ruled by High Pressure
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8 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:
if we have a poor-ish summer this year.. In my opinion we will have one decent summer in 10 years. and that will be 2013..
Yes i agree 2013 was very good. A bit on the cool side in June but good sunshine amounts and very warm spells. A very consistent summer. From July this one has to be sunny
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1 hour ago, markyo said:
Thankfully the push of humid conditions will only last a few days from mid week onwards then a return to atlantic influence.
The most likely outcome but not certain just yet
http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles7.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgens%2Fruns%2F2016061900%2Fgens-3-1-120.png&key=9d3d0ebcc38b43ca84fdf0e90bc39c33a22dc54e4b5204ec1d1872d54ce77253
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19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
12z GFS looks even warmer, last four days would average 19.0 or thereabouts.
12z ECM more muted. So the estimate could be as high as 16.5 and as low as 15.5 depending on which scenario prevails.
There has never been a 16.3, 16.5 or 16.7 June. If this one finished on any of those it would be 9th (16.7), 10th (16.5) or 15th (16.3) as 10th to 14th are currently shared by the five at 16.4 (1726. 1728., 1818, 1940, 1970).
Great stats Roger! I have a feeling youll be closer this month with 16 than me with 15.6.
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:
Hair drier treatment applied to the Ukraine.
Yes and that silver shading i was asking about earlier
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Great post Mb
ECM 12z beginning to emerge up to day 5 and day 5 looks fairly warm I'm guessing with pressure 1020mb for northern England down. Ps I would post charts but my phone won't let me -
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
A mixed June so far
"Changeable conditions are then likely through the rest of the month, though temperatures will often be above normal over England and Wales."
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/06/17/a-mixed-june-so-far/
Yes very cloudy indeed. Ive heard talk of all this rain and im sure we've been below average here. SS i live fairly close to yourself and seen your updates for rainfall for your area. Im guessing we must be below average rainfall for June so far? Thanks
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Thankyou. I tried to post the chart in isolation but it kept deleting the lot
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Hi Frosty. I noticed on your post earlier the red indicated the high twenties but silver shading over southern France south. What temps does this indicate?
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I thought they were saying rainy next week from the posts i have read? Have you seen a recent broadcast Matthew?
ECM does look very good - warm continental air incoming at 120 tonight..
On the website type in any city northern England down and sunny/cloudy conditions are widespread tuesday+ They must be on a similar theme to the ECM. Temps high teens/low twenties.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
Loving the Euro models tonight, ecm looks warm - potentially very warm for a time next week, esp so in the SE i would suggest.
Will we see the meto give up on the unsettled theme soon? They must be siding with the GFS as it stands which suprises me.
Even the Bbc are expecting reasonably settled and good conditions.
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The Low on the ECM gradually loses all its presence from Monday onwards. We end up in no mans land with light winds and good temps. Can't complain out to day 8
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Very frustrating - low pressure covering pretty much the entire North Pole (which is what we want at this time of year), and we still can't get a nice bit of high pressure!
Millibars 1015-1020 apart from Scotland. Higher pressure than lower though.
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Yes this week has been awful! But that's only because Low P has sat on top of us. Next week the Low will be sat near Iceland instead and leave a pleasant westerly flow.
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6 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:
once the weather sets in this patern takes a hell of a lot to change it..I don't get the smirking louise lear and her mention of childs sports days and things.. what we need is large area of high pressure etc. whats all that nonsense about??
its rained every day for a week now..Just hope we aint in for a wet summer.. Seems to be heading that way.. Even the met office.. says rain from time to time.. so basically rain most of the time. But we will cover it up with word play..
From sunday a pleasant change on the way as a whole. Not full HP but high enough for where we live to bring much better conditions than this week. You will notice the difference, not as humid also. Fresher and pleasantly warm bar a little rain.
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It's looking much better from Sunday imo. Mainly a dry consensus away from the Nw. Temperatures look slightly above average all next week. This will be a pleasant change for the east.
Nothing outstanding by any means but pleasant summer weather on the whole.
Summer 2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
That must be one of the warmest temps in the Uk today